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Due to the Clausewitzian nature of the upcoming war-- it will be an all-or-nothing thing for the major combatants-- I think the likelihood of my preferred scenario (the satellites go free without external influence) is greatly decreased, and that I'd better hope the imperialists win and decide to be generous, as you lay out, to keep the peace.MigFulcrum27 said:
Of course, there are endless possibilities for how this might end. Most here seems to have forgotten the Balkan Wars of the start of the 1900s. Some aspects to think of in such a context:
The Italians want to impress the Croats. IRL, Mussolini occupied Albania in 1936, IIRC. What's to keep him from doing so in this timeline as well. After all, I'm sure the Croats would love to have Italian allies sitting just south of the Serbs. And what of the hodgepodge of other ethnic groups around? Will the Bosnians, Macedonians and Albanians sit idly by when Serbs start to - essentially - build their own nation? Is there even an organization to oppose that. The Albanians, by the way, might be approached by the Austrians in a desperate bid for help from....anyone....(which is another reason for the Italians to nullify such attempts by just stomping into Tirana). And what of the Bulgarians and Greeks? And beyound them, the Turks? Would any of these guys really want the Russians to create a new block of power in the Balkans with the aid of Serbs, Hungarians and Romanians? It's 1914 but even worse, from their POV. But then again, the Turks and the Greeks couldn't possibly ally against this threat, so.....eh....
Endless possibilities!! =)....and PLENTY of reason for a new Balkans war to simply explode during 1936, if you ask me....
The Italians want to impress the Croats. IRL, Mussolini occupied Albania in 1936, IIRC. What's to keep him from doing so in this timeline as well. After all, I'm sure the Croats would love to have Italian allies sitting just south of the Serbs. And what of the hodgepodge of other ethnic groups around? Will the Bosnians, Macedonians and Albanians sit idly by when Serbs start to - essentially - build their own nation? Is there even an organization to oppose that. The Albanians, by the way, might be approached by the Austrians in a desperate bid for help from....anyone....(which is another reason for the Italians to nullify such attempts by just stomping into Tirana). And what of the Bulgarians and Greeks? And beyound them, the Turks? Would any of these guys really want the Russians to create a new block of power in the Balkans with the aid of Serbs, Hungarians and Romanians? It's 1914 but even worse, from their POV. But then again, the Turks and the Greeks couldn't possibly ally against this threat, so.....eh....
Endless possibilities!! =)....and PLENTY of reason for a new Balkans war to simply explode during 1936, if you ask me....
No matter how it pans out, I don't think it will end with a peaceful Balkan. This is the 1930's we're talking about... odds are there would be massacres, deportations and all the rest. (I can understand why Yogi might not want to dive too deeply into the details, though.)
If the Russian revolution is any standard to go by, the Austrian revolution will likely deteriorate into a mess of massacres, terror and counter-terror soon enough. What are the revolutionaries going to do with the bourgeois citizens in the areas they overrun? With the local officials? They're just as much invaders as revolutionaries in the class struggle.
What of the gendarms in their quaint uniforms and their mustaches... and the stashs of guns that they certainly have buried somewhere just out of town... remember, comrade, what the instructor from Russia said about how the bourgeois always plotted the counter-revolution! We mustn't be soft on the suckers. Say, comrade, shouldn't we pre-emptively deport the whole lot of them to some safe place?
If the Russian revolution is any standard to go by, the Austrian revolution will likely deteriorate into a mess of massacres, terror and counter-terror soon enough. What are the revolutionaries going to do with the bourgeois citizens in the areas they overrun? With the local officials? They're just as much invaders as revolutionaries in the class struggle.
What of the gendarms in their quaint uniforms and their mustaches... and the stashs of guns that they certainly have buried somewhere just out of town... remember, comrade, what the instructor from Russia said about how the bourgeois always plotted the counter-revolution! We mustn't be soft on the suckers. Say, comrade, shouldn't we pre-emptively deport the whole lot of them to some safe place?
^^^^^^
Yes, that's what the red revolutions always come to, but I was referring to how a Balkans war would affect grand diplomacy. Lets assume the Austrians actually do apporach Albania in a desperate attempt to get new allies, cuz even if the Albanians themselves are too small to do anything, even getting military access would allow the Germans to land a sizable force in Tirana and then gut the Serbians supply lines from behind. I would do it =).
But then, that would squash the Italian's hopes for chaos in the region. Sure, Italy is in opposition to the commies, but at the same time, Musso can only benefit from a destabilizing of the region. So, whack-didoo, the black shirts move into Albania to make sure that the Ustasha can be supported when the Austrian empire falls. For would the Serb commies attack an Indepented Croatia with the risk of getting Italy in their rear?
Meanwhile, if I where Greece or Bulgaria, I would make sure that these two nations created an alliance for independence and approached...oh...say....Great Britain to get their indepence guaranteed, at least. GBR would be a better party since they are more "neutral" in a ways. If they approached Austria, that would antagonize BOTH the Commies AND Turkey. A treaty with GBR would only upset Turkey, while Austria and the Commies can fight each other to the bitter end. Such a move, however, would more or less be forced - if they want to get their fingers into the Balkans again - to talk to Germany. Turkey and Germany can ill afford a strong Comintern in their mutual backyard.
The net result would be 3 parties possibly fighting each other - Commies, Central Powers, and GBR+Allies, respectively.
Oh, the mess....I love the setup, Yogi....=)
Yes, that's what the red revolutions always come to, but I was referring to how a Balkans war would affect grand diplomacy. Lets assume the Austrians actually do apporach Albania in a desperate attempt to get new allies, cuz even if the Albanians themselves are too small to do anything, even getting military access would allow the Germans to land a sizable force in Tirana and then gut the Serbians supply lines from behind. I would do it =).
But then, that would squash the Italian's hopes for chaos in the region. Sure, Italy is in opposition to the commies, but at the same time, Musso can only benefit from a destabilizing of the region. So, whack-didoo, the black shirts move into Albania to make sure that the Ustasha can be supported when the Austrian empire falls. For would the Serb commies attack an Indepented Croatia with the risk of getting Italy in their rear?
Meanwhile, if I where Greece or Bulgaria, I would make sure that these two nations created an alliance for independence and approached...oh...say....Great Britain to get their indepence guaranteed, at least. GBR would be a better party since they are more "neutral" in a ways. If they approached Austria, that would antagonize BOTH the Commies AND Turkey. A treaty with GBR would only upset Turkey, while Austria and the Commies can fight each other to the bitter end. Such a move, however, would more or less be forced - if they want to get their fingers into the Balkans again - to talk to Germany. Turkey and Germany can ill afford a strong Comintern in their mutual backyard.
The net result would be 3 parties possibly fighting each other - Commies, Central Powers, and GBR+Allies, respectively.
Oh, the mess....I love the setup, Yogi....=)
I guess teh British will have a somewhat friendly neutral stance to germany - after all, they are fighting the commies. I guess that a Reuben James-like incident where a french or russian submarine sinks a british destroyer guarding german ships (as agreed in the fleet treaty) might trigger their entry into the war. Remember that they didn't really participate in WWI and will be more likely to engage in war since they lack the trauma of trench warfare (reading about it and living through it are two different things, still). We might even see a british volunteer unit in germany...
I suppose it all depends on what will be the most effective means of opposing Communism in the upcoming war - keeping AH intact, or freeing the nationalities from their 'prisons'. Frankly, I seriously doubt that there can be any 'moderate' solution here which would preserve AH intact. There has just been an overwhelming rebellion by, essentially, every single piece of the non-German areas of the empire. The pot has been boiling on AH foe decades, and it's not going to be shut back on by a nominal military victory here. The increasingly pragmatic and politically intelligent Willy II we have here must surely realise this.
Keeping AH would simply engender more rebellion and a lack of stability. Splitting it up would both take the wind out of the Communists' sails, and would deprive them of a focus for resistance - Yogi has, I believe already stated that the reds prime basis of support is a feeling of national greivance, more than anything else.
Keeping AH would simply engender more rebellion and a lack of stability. Splitting it up would both take the wind out of the Communists' sails, and would deprive them of a focus for resistance - Yogi has, I believe already stated that the reds prime basis of support is a feeling of national greivance, more than anything else.
Personally, I agree with you Vincent Julien, but only up to a point. While the nationalities and ethnic groups would probably be recognized up to a point, even a federal system would probably result in renewing the civil war pretty soon. We all know what happened in the former Yugoslavia as a pretty much direct result of Field Marshal Tito’s policies of granting the different national groups semi-autonomy. While Wille II does not have the advantage of this knowledge, it does not take a genius to figure out that that would be the probable result. Furthermore, their should be no doubt that the Austro-Hungarian government would be firmly opposed to the destruction of the empire, even if it was replaced by a string of puppets handled out of Vienna. Even if they were all just political quacks, wars, or at least hostility, would tear at the new pseudo empire from the inside. In short, in the event of an Austro-Hungarian victory, aside from my earlier mentioned possible political reforms their would be no new and drastic differences in the shape of the Baltic.
This isn't going to be an Austro-Hungarian victory, though; it's going to be a German victory, on the back of German men, money, tactical and strategic expertise, and equipment, and Germany will, to a large extent, dictate the peace because of it.
In any case, we've already seen how reliant Otto is on Wilhelm's guidance.
Also, I don't see any real reason for this prognosis of immediate genocide as soon as AH is dismantled. This didn't happen automatically after WW1, and I don't see why it should be automatically the case here. There's going to be instability for a time, likely bloodshed, and probably irredentism, and quibling over borders - just like after WW1 IRL - but I don't see the apocalypse some people are predicting.
In any case, we've already seen how reliant Otto is on Wilhelm's guidance.
Also, I don't see any real reason for this prognosis of immediate genocide as soon as AH is dismantled. This didn't happen automatically after WW1, and I don't see why it should be automatically the case here. There's going to be instability for a time, likely bloodshed, and probably irredentism, and quibling over borders - just like after WW1 IRL - but I don't see the apocalypse some people are predicting.
Question is: Even if Kaiser Bill is willing to intervene militarily in a bigger way, how much can he politically? And i'm talking purely internal German politics here not even international problems. Apart from pacifist sentiment which Germany probably has on the same level as Britain and France had in the 30s of OTL i see 2 purely pragmatic reasons to oppose large scale military intervention which a lot of Germans will have:
1.: In OTL when the Korean War broke out it was seen by many in the West as a communist strategic feint to draw the Wests military to Asia so that the Soviet Union can attack Europe. Without the benefit of hindsight that was a quite valid concern. By the same note a lot of Germans will be concerned that the true objective of the Rebellion in AH is to draw away German military strengh from its own borders with French and Soviets and oppose military intervention.
2.: Why send our boys to die for some incompetent dynasty whose Empire is beyond saving anyway?
1.: In OTL when the Korean War broke out it was seen by many in the West as a communist strategic feint to draw the Wests military to Asia so that the Soviet Union can attack Europe. Without the benefit of hindsight that was a quite valid concern. By the same note a lot of Germans will be concerned that the true objective of the Rebellion in AH is to draw away German military strengh from its own borders with French and Soviets and oppose military intervention.
2.: Why send our boys to die for some incompetent dynasty whose Empire is beyond saving anyway?
Neroon said:
you don't understand german psyche...for this kind of worries they have the kaiser, don't they? AH has been a brother in arms during WWI, they won't be abandoned in the time of their geratest need...
AH is important to secure germanys souther flank and therefore HAS to stay strong enough to at least hold the line.
After this war, however, continued Habsburg territorial integrity will likely be impossible. An obvious solution may be the German annexation of the Germanic bits of Austria (including Slovenia and Bohemia-Moravia), a large and independent Hungary (including Slovakia, Transylvania, and the Vojvodina) and a Croat based Kingdom of Slavonia (or Illyria or Dalmatia) in most of historic Yugoslavia. Galicia can be divided by Poland and Ukraine, as Yogi mentioned earlier, and even Italy may get some goodies (the Trentino, Fiume, Zara, and Ragusa perhaps; plus just maybe a free hand in Albania though certainly not Greece). Greece will want a chunk of Albania too. Alternatively, you might woo Albania with the promise of Kosovo.
My thoughts exactly. A good sized Hungary would be the best bet as the main bulwark against Communism after this.
I agree that the Empire is pretty much done in. But on what people would these new states be built? The young people are joining the reds in droves, the elites and intellectuals have had nothing but revenge (in the case of Serbia) and nationalism (in the case of the Romanians) on their mind.Vincent Julien said:
There might be enough non-communist Czechs to support a Bohemian independent state, but how would such a state deal with the Germans within its borders? The Germans (30% of the Bohemian population) would want to have nothing to do with a Bohemian state (unless THEY are the ones running it) and would sabotage any attempt to impose a "fair" solution on Bohemia/Moravia, i.e. a solution where political power is divided along population numbers. I don't assume that the political struggles in Bohemia have become any less deadlocked in the years between the 1914 we know and the 1936 in the game. Before 1914, the AH government did try to impose a fair and impartial solution for the sharing of power within Bohemia and Moravia, but it came to nothing because the German-dominated bureaucracy would not accept a scheme under which they would have to learn Czech. (Effectively, all young Czechs who wanted to enter the civil service spoke German, but few Germans within or outside the civil service spoke Czech, and even less were willing to learn it. So a truly bilingual bureaucracy would end up hiring mostly Czechs, and that was not seen as acceptable.)
In other places, it would be even harder... Serbia and Bosnia would likely have to be governed as military protectorates for many years, even if the idea of reintegrating them within some kind of post-Habsburg-structure was abandoned.
Hungary might be easy to keep as an independent state... maybe even under a Habsburg. But the Hungarians used to have this quaint notion of how everything from the Carpathians to the Sava is Hungarian proper ("lands of the St. Stephan's crown"), they'd either have to let go of that idea or rule Slovakia, Siebenbürgen and Ruthenia through iron fisted methods - pretty hard, too, without German help. But possible.
Croatia might also be kept as an independent state, but to keep Italy out of the whole Balkan scheme Croatia would have to be watched closely. It would probably be forced to become a half-hearted member of some kind of German-dominated alliance.
The Poles would get west Galicia. Poland seems to be a fairly stable, reliable (to a point) satellite within the German sphere. If they end up on the side of a victorious Germany, their ambitions towards parts of Prussia might be diverted through the generous granting of land in the east... I doubt the Ukraine comes out of the war in one piece, the Poles might get large swathes of land in a general redesign of the borders in that part of Europe. But then again, maybe not... the Prussian used to be pretty polanophobe (is that a word?
) and who knows what kind of promises the reds will make to lure the Poles over into their camp. The Ukraine... well, what Yogi said about the way the war ended in those parts didn't bode well for their future. Are there still German garrison troops in the Ukraine? They might also have gotten an infection of the red revolution. And they'll likely be overrun by Russian troops anyways. Going by the principle of nationalities, east Galicia ought to go to the Ukraine in the case of an AH breakup. But then again, Poland might also get it. Or here's a really new scheme: If the Germans find that a granting Poland or the Ukraine parts (or all) of Galicia would make both of these countries too independent, Galicia could be kept as a separate entity. Under German garrison, of course. And with some Habsburg prince. "Kingdom of Galicia and Lodomeria" - that's the name of the land, isn't it?
Unlikely to make anyone happy outside of Berlin, but I've been told the region does have a distincly Habsburgian flair to this day. Oh and then there are the Slovenians. Their land is small enough to be left alone (within the German alliance system, of course) but the language border between Slovenians and Germans in Carinthia is very fuzzy. The local Germans would likely plead for the annexation of as much of Slovenia within the German-Austrian successor state as possible - this might lead to problems. (In OTL 1919 there was a referendum, and most of the disputed regions remained with Austria. The Nazis didn't think that Slovenia was supposed to be a country of its own, and split the land between Italy and Grossdeutschland.) The Croatians might also have designs on their neighbours. The Italians would certainly want to grab as much of the region as possible, regardless of what language the locals speak.
If the scheme of making all these regions is too difficult to implement - especially when there is a war going on - the Germans could, of course, urge the Austrians to crush the "rebellion" by all means necessary, and just rule all of former Austria-Hungary as an ordinary occupation zone, using the Austrians as their Kapos. The generals in Berlin had a way of losing all their ethical restraints when they felt they were standing with their backs to the wall, even in WW1...
Actually, I get the impression that many Hungarians today haven't abandoned the concept of a Hungary stretching from the Carpathians to the Adriatic. I was in Budapest just over a week ago, and it seemed that the Treaty of Trianon is still fresh in people's minds - tour guides all over the city keep mentioning the loss of Siebenburgen/Transylvania, Slovakia and Slavonia as though it happened yesterday. (If you've been to the Square of Heroes in Budapest, four of the statues of the great Magyars are of Transylvanian princes, although this was because the rest of Hungary was occupied by the Turks.)
How this region is to be divided will no doubt be a cause of much ethnic tension. Noting the need for a strong, Catholic, anti-Communist Hungary, it's likely that Transylvania (30% Magyar I think) will remain Hungarian (Romania only got it because of her role in the historical Great War, didnt happen here). The other parts of Greater Hungary have a lower percentage of Magyars, so that isn't clear. Croatian and Serbian nationalists will make Hungarian retention of Slavonia very difficult. No access to the sea then. Slovakia will probably be a nice target for Ukraine if left independent - it's not much of a bulwark on its own - so it should remain part of Hungary. Maybe a Habsburg monarch will rule for a while.....to be ousted soon enough by a certain Miklos Horthy.....who, again, won't have a fleet.
How this region is to be divided will no doubt be a cause of much ethnic tension. Noting the need for a strong, Catholic, anti-Communist Hungary, it's likely that Transylvania (30% Magyar I think) will remain Hungarian (Romania only got it because of her role in the historical Great War, didnt happen here). The other parts of Greater Hungary have a lower percentage of Magyars, so that isn't clear. Croatian and Serbian nationalists will make Hungarian retention of Slavonia very difficult. No access to the sea then. Slovakia will probably be a nice target for Ukraine if left independent - it's not much of a bulwark on its own - so it should remain part of Hungary. Maybe a Habsburg monarch will rule for a while.....to be ousted soon enough by a certain Miklos Horthy.....who, again, won't have a fleet.
I know you shouldn't argue politically but, if memory serves, Hungary got Transylvania back as part of the Molotov-Ribbetrop Pact or something similar, in WWII. Rumania got it back either furing the Cold War or afterwards. Seeing as the world no longer recognized the Third Reich all was null.
It received Transcarpathian Ruthenia as part of the Vienna Diktat - but not all of historical Siebenburgen. This was only for a short time though, so it was hardly significant. For all practical purposes, it was the end of the Habsburg Empire and the Treaty of Trianon that led to Hungary's territorial demise, not the end of Nazi Germany (Hungary was much larger in the Austro Hungarian Empire than from 1941-44 anyway).
Of course, in an atmosphere of general nationalist emancipation, there is no reason to believe that the ethnic Romanians in Transylvania would accept Transylvania under Hungarian rule. In this timeline, the "Hungarian" army is actually comprised of ethnic Romanians, so we have a situation of a "Hungarian" movement made up of Romanian troops. Why on earth would they just accept Hungarian rule once the AH yoke is overthrown. If the Romanians have to choose between Hungarian or Austrian rule, they would actually choose the latter (they have experience of both). So this could end up with a war between Hungary and Romania. Unless there are German or Russian troops to stop it, of course....
*g*Odysseus said:
Since Hungary is still part of the AH Empire, and the Revolutionary movement largely funded through Romanian channels, you can say that this conflict has has already *begun* with a war between Romania and Hungary.
^^^^
I wonder how the Kaiser of Germany and the General Secretary of USSR will react to infighting between Hungarians and Romanians...
And I'm just waiting to see Trotsky intervene with Russian troops thru Romania. That's gonna be an awesome fight: Guderian vs Tukachevsky =)
I wonder how the Kaiser of Germany and the General Secretary of USSR will react to infighting between Hungarians and Romanians...
And I'm just waiting to see Trotsky intervene with Russian troops thru Romania. That's gonna be an awesome fight: Guderian vs Tukachevsky =)