Pop growth rates with the health institution and Private Hospitals or Public Hospitals laws. Presumably at max institution?What is private/public health growth rate?
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Pop growth rates with the health institution and Private Hospitals or Public Hospitals laws. Presumably at max institution?What is private/public health growth rate?
I mean the last column. Seems some ratio but I’m not sure of what. Dividing the private health growth rate by the one of the public health don’t gives me the same number.Pop growth rates with the health institution and Private Hospitals or Public Hospitals laws. Presumably at max institution?
Ah I get it.I mean the last column. Seems some ratio but I’m not sure of what. Dividing the private health growth rate by the one of the public health don’t gives me the same number.
Ah I get it.
Yes, nor me.
sorry, i'm bad at excel and at paying attention (as you can see below), I divided the mortality ofI mean the last column. Seems some ratio but I’m not sure of what. Dividing the private health growth rate by the one of the public health don’t gives me the same number.
yesPop growth rates with the health institution and Private Hospitals or Public Hospitals laws. Presumably at max institution?
I see people here are gathering data about population trends in the game. Have someone compared world population in 1836 with world population in 1936. I have a feeling that numbers will be pretty stagnant.
I think that even partiall implemetation of new demographic rules will be better than what we have now.I don't know how reliable it is, https://worldpopulationhistory.org/map/1836/mercator/1/0/25/ - but 92% growth from 1.15bn to 2.2bn, which is an average compound of 0.65%. IG 1.5bn sounds about right... but is there any easy way to extract this? 1.5bn is roughly half the actual growth rate.
It's a great discussion about how to model this more effectively in game. I'm wondering if looking at global pop would at least help discount the impact of migration. The average compound growth needs to move over time, as the economies (e.g. food production) and technology (e.g. health care) improve. This clearly will make it much more complex as we'd need to consider the variation in economic & technological growth and how that impacts overall population growth. That 2.2bn at least sounds like a useful litmus test for any model.
Famines aren't really modelled very well in the game - The 'flu epidemic is, but I haven't seen a Potato Blight or any others. So those events could also be significant. Also the model needs to provide some extra growth to account for loses in warfare. The inter-war decline in French population is often linked to their high death toll in WWI.
PDX model is built on flawed assumption, that to have high natural population growth you need to have developed social institutions and high standards of living. We have plenty examples of countries and regions from that period who had none of that and still enjoyed high population growth.Fixing the AI's industrial development will also have an influence on population growth. We should be careful not to tune the model to the AI's current incompetence.
From earlier in the thread:PDX model is built on flawed assumption, that to have high natural population growth you need to have developed social institutions and high standards of living. We have plenty examples of countries and regions from that period who had none of that and still enjoyed high population growth.
The idea that, all else equal, SOL correlates with growth seems to fit the data. The existence of outliers doesn't disprove this.Pop of Europe 1836 = 255M
Pop of Europe 1914 = 448M
European growth = 75%
Pop of Africa 1836 = 96M
Pop of Africa 1914 = 146M
African growth = 52%
Pop of Asia 1836 = 803M
Pop of Asia 1914 = 1050M
Asian growth = 31%
This suggests to me that the higher SoL in Europe resulted in higher population growth rates as a general rule. Sure there were exceptions like France might be lower than 75%, but England was higher than 75%, and Ireland went up quickly before decreasing even faster. Ireland raises another point - the amount of emigration from Europe might make their underlying growth rate even higher. Also I'd guess that Asia may have been lower than Africa due to the impact in China of things like the Taiping rebellion and the Opium trade, while the slave trade had largely stopped holding Africa's growth back.
The thing is that in current PDX model developed nations populations grows more or less historically allthought I belive still bellow expected amount. But undeveloped nations do not grow at all, while in examle that you cited population in less developed regions still somewhat increased, so competent managemet of economy shouldn't be the only predictor.From earlier in the thread:
The idea that, all else equal, SOL correlates with growth seems to fit the data. The existence of outliers doesn't disprove this.
It also doesn't make sense to expect pop growth to follow historical trends when the AI is too poor at this stage to follow historical trends in development. I don't think anyone would argue that world population would have had the same growth without industrialization. So the point that we shouldn't over tune things to the current state of the AI is a very good one.
Also statistics you provided support of higher SoL correlation with higher population growth make sense only on agregate. I suspect that european numbers include also population of Russian Empire.From earlier in the thread:
The idea that, all else equal, SOL correlates with growth seems to fit the data. The existence of outliers doesn't disprove this.
It also doesn't make sense to expect pop growth to follow historical trends when the AI is too poor at this stage to follow historical trends in development. I don't think anyone would argue that world population would have had the same growth without industrialization. So the point that we shouldn't over tune things to the current state of the AI is a very good one.
Maybe we need a condom factory and the french to have an obsession for it (condoms I mean, not, you know, the other thing (they do tho)).For the records, France had a population of 34M in 1836 and 40M in 1900 (as it turned out, it was still ~40M in 1950). The demographic transition ended when it began in other countries.
I easily reached 80M in my second game, with borders closed and a level 1 healthcare system.