Pop growth rates with the health institution and Private Hospitals or Public Hospitals laws. Presumably at max institution?
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SoL impact on pop growth might not be historically correct?
- Thread starter Al-Khalidi
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I mean the last column. Seems some ratio but I’m not sure of what. Dividing the private health growth rate by the one of the public health don’t gives me the same number.
sorry, i'm bad at excel and at paying attention (as you can see below), I divided the mortality of
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A possible explanation for slow pop growth in France may be the use of nurses on the countryside by all urban classes, not only the aristocrats.
Once the nurse runs dry, they instead gave some kind of mush to the baby to further get the money, but most of them died.
But that wasn't really a problem for the parents, one child more or less...
(saw it in a docu about different styles of education througout the centuries)
Once the nurse runs dry, they instead gave some kind of mush to the baby to further get the money, but most of them died.
But that wasn't really a problem for the parents, one child more or less...
(saw it in a docu about different styles of education througout the centuries)
I see people here are gathering data about population trends in the game. Have someone compared world population in 1836 with world population in 1936. I have a feeling that numbers will be pretty stagnant.
So I ran myself one test, that might be not to representative but I believe it shows by how much off pophlation growth is in the game.
I ran vanilla game on version 1.1. in observer mode.
At the start of the game world population is 1.02B and when I checked at 29th of May of 1930 it got to 1.45B.
It is generrally belived that in yer 1927 world plpulation reached 2 billions. So game is off by 550 millions. Undeveloped nation stagnated or even shrank in population.
I ran vanilla game on version 1.1. in observer mode.
At the start of the game world population is 1.02B and when I checked at 29th of May of 1930 it got to 1.45B.
It is generrally belived that in yer 1927 world plpulation reached 2 billions. So game is off by 550 millions. Undeveloped nation stagnated or even shrank in population.
I don't know how reliable it is, https://worldpopulationhistory.org/map/1836/mercator/1/0/25/ - but 92% growth from 1.15bn to 2.2bn, which is an average compound of 0.65%. IG 1.5bn sounds about right... but is there any easy way to extract this? 1.5bn is roughly half the actual growth rate.
It's a great discussion about how to model this more effectively in game. I'm wondering if looking at global pop would at least help discount the impact of migration. The average compound growth needs to move over time, as the economies (e.g. food production) and technology (e.g. health care) improve. This clearly will make it much more complex as we'd need to consider the variation in economic & technological growth and how that impacts overall population growth. That 2.2bn at least sounds like a useful litmus test for any model.
Famines aren't really modelled very well in the game - The 'flu epidemic is, but I haven't seen a Potato Blight or any others. So those events could also be significant. Also the model needs to provide some extra growth to account for loses in warfare. The inter-war decline in French population is often linked to their high death toll in WWI.
Fixing the AI's industrial development will also have an influence on population growth. We should be careful not to tune the model to the AI's current incompetence.
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Regarding extraction of wo
Regading how I got world population numbers. I just switched to random UK and type annex_all cheat. Take some time but after that you see all kinds of info thanks to the fact that everyone in the world lives in your country.
I think that even partiall implemetation of new demographic rules will be better than what we have now.
Regading how I got world population numbers. I just switched to random UK and type annex_all cheat. Take some time but after that you see all kinds of info thanks to the fact that everyone in the world lives in your country.
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PDX model is built on flawed assumption, that to have high natural population growth you need to have developed social institutions and high standards of living. We have plenty examples of countries and regions from that period who had none of that and still enjoyed high population growth.
From earlier in the thread:
The idea that, all else equal, SOL correlates with growth seems to fit the data. The existence of outliers doesn't disprove this.
It also doesn't make sense to expect pop growth to follow historical trends when the AI is too poor at this stage to follow historical trends in development. I don't think anyone would argue that world population would have had the same growth without industrialization. So the point that we shouldn't over tune things to the current state of the AI is a very good one.
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I would consider looking at population growth one of the areas to assess to see how well the AI is working. A good AI ought to be able to get near 2x POP growth in the century.
The thing is that in current PDX model developed nations populations grows more or less historically allthought I belive still bellow expected amount. But undeveloped nations do not grow at all, while in examle that you cited population in less developed regions still somewhat increased, so competent managemet of economy shouldn't be the only predictor.
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Also statistics you provided support of higher SoL correlation with higher population growth make sense only on agregate. I suspect that european numbers include also population of Russian Empire.
Russia was one of the least developed nations of europe by 1914 and barely industrialised, and still its population grew from ~60mil to ~166mil by 1914. Part of those 166 millions came from territorial gain during 19th century, so we can assume that population of initial territories grew to approximatelly 150 millions.
That is 150% growth of population.
And also if we will remove Russia from european numbers it will be:
1836 ~195 mil
1914 ~300 mil
Which is ~53% increase, and now SoL impact on higher population growth doesn't look as convincing.
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Maybe we need a condom factory and the french to have an obsession for it (condoms I mean, not, you know, the other thing (they do tho)).
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The problem with higher SoL=less children is that even with stagnant SoL the birth rate will still decrease after a decrease of mortality IRL