Rank and File: A clerk's war Germany 1936 (Semper Fi)

[jju_57]

Uriah did research the tech to reduce combat delay. Not sure how low it is, but it should be around 24 hrs max. That's not much time for the AI to dig in.

I have no clue how you can come up with the 24 hour figure. Attack delay starts off at 168 hours in the LUA file. Each level of technology reduces it by 24 hours. There are 1918, 1936, 1940, 1944 etc tech levels. So the best he can have (1940 tech) would mean an attack delay of 96 hours. This is then modified by officer ratio but no way can it be just 24 hours. My guess is the lowest it can be is around 60 hours and that is being very generous.

 

[shepherd352]

I went out on a limb and gave fairly detailed predictions in an earlier post. Others can do the same if they think I'm wrong. Then we all can sit back and watch and see who is closest to being right in their predictions.

Cudos to jju_57! He did commit his expectations to the record, fairly early in the process (there are so many experts after the fact) and he did it in a humorous manner. jju_57 might be preaching doom but he left us laughing!

I'm not sure where it will go. Certainly, the initial size of Axis forces, the rate of advance and the casualty rate are all bad but he has two extra months. I am hoping he has a long road to victory but, if he is pushed to the defense, I expect the AI will take severe unit losses (it fails to withdraw units that have zero ORG due to lack of supply). Whatever happens, we (the readers) are the winners!

 

[Forster]

Is Japan doing anything that will help? In my game it performed very well, taking Soviet maritime provinces.
I enjoyed the update as usual. Its too bad the daily limit can't be averaged for days you don't post. We'll just have to do with less, I guess. But, maybe more often?

 

[Uriah]

Rank and File
A Clerk’s War​

Friday May 16th to Monday May 19th 1941 (Part 1)

Three battles were finalised overnight, but regrettably only one was a victory. Both Drohoczyn Poleski and Tarnopol were defeats, but Vainode in the northern pocket has been a clear win for our panzers.

General Felber used darkness to start crossing the Memel. He faces a determined and well-armed enemy in the form of 7 Tankovaya and 209th Motorizavannaya, led by the experienced General Susaikov. On the plus side, he has four infantry divisions under his control, and is attacking from three directions. Nevertheless, the advantage here lies with the Russians, who have dug in along the opposite bank. Their tanks are hull-down to our advancing troops and will be extremely difficult to target. Effective assistance from the Luftwaffe will be essential to success.

Battle of Sopechnie​

Polen Army Nord is suffering enormous losses on the Memel River defensive line, and von Manstein is getting desperate for a breakthrough. To assist in his efforts, 71.Infanterie which has just arrived in Danzig, has been attached to XV Armeekorps. Neuling is an experienced commander and his 10,000 veterans will be a welcome addition to Polen Army Nord. In contrast to the problems his northern neighbour is having, General Rommel has seen the defence in Rohatyn collapse, allowing his men to cross the Siret. Enemy losses for once were several times our casualties, and with the river line breached we expect some quick advances from Polen Army Sud.

With Rohatyn in the bag, Rommel authorised a resumption of the attack on Drohiczyn Poleski, but with double the original force. Frießner has both 103 and 106.Infanterie and was full of confidence. The defence has also been strengthened, however. General Varennikov has moved up 197 Kievskaya to join 151 and 317 Strelkovaya. He also has the battered 159 and 165 Strelkovaya in reserve, if things get that bad.

2nd Battle of Drohiczyn Poleski​

The VVS fighters resumed their attempts to break up our bomber formations, with mixed success. Kitzinger’s missions to bomb Oborin’s men in Alytus were hardly affected, though he lost some bombers. Over Khmel’nyts’kyy the Russians did save their ground troops, but not because of their own actions. Generalleutnant Waber was so worried about Kutakhov affecting Schwartzkopff’s bombers that for several days he sent 9 Jagdgeschwader as escorts. With our current skill level nobody could control so many aircraft and the missions were completely ineffective. Thousands of Budyho’s troops were saved by our own ineptitude.

Air Battle of Khmel’nyts’kyy: 8PM 16th May. Our bomber geschwader pilots are cursing the return of the rain and storms. The language of the poor bloody infantry is a degree or two worse.

An I-16 preparing for combat: while Mig 1 aircraft are available, the I-16 is still the backbone of the VVS fighter brigades​

At least there was one piece of good news: the Lithuanian/Latvian pocket has been closed! Kesselring and von Manstein claim to have 13 Russian divisions trapped. We now need only tighten the noose and 100,000 men of the Red Army will be ours. No matter how deep the Soviet manpower reserves, that will have to hurt. Let alone the cost of re-equipping such a force. We just need to make sure there is no breakout, and that crushing the pocket is not too expensive.

Lithuanian/Latvian Pocket: 9AM 16th May​

Guderian’s attempt to create a pocket seems to have failed, but he is still making good progress. Von Roques may be trying to set a new record for attacking against odds: his move into Ul’yanovka pits the 10,000 men of 46.Infanterie against General Baranov’s 73,500 defenders. He cannot even rely on the Luftwaffe to ease his path, as storms are agains covering much of the Front and drifting southeast. He is sure that Baranov only has 10,000 men capable of fighting for more than few hours, and has assured Balkans Army HQ that he needs no further help.

Battle of Ul’yanovka​

One province to the north, General von Bock is taking no such chances. He has 30,000 men with which to take Uman, and while Hadeev still has a slight advantage in numbers, von Bock’s skill and the experience of his men should easily offset that.

Battle of Uman​

With the Russian fighters, if not winning the battle for the air at least not getting shot down in droves, the VVS sent some bombers to Marijapole to disrupt troop columns heading north. It was a little optimistic. Christiansen, relieved of responsibility for Riga, had 4th Jagdfliegerkorps in action in minutes and Skripko had to abort the mission. Sudets and his ragtag group of DB-3s and MBR-2s were more successful, getting in one raid on Horodenka, mainly because Waber had every Messerschmitt in the area over Khmel’nyts’kyy.

Last attack of the day was also from the Balkans Army, which seems to be setting the pace. Petzel and 34.Infanterie are chasing General Osyka into Balta, hoping to keep 8 Tankovaya and 11 and 130 Strelkovaya on the run.

Battle of Balta​

On Saturday new weapons started to be fitted to our medium and naval bombers: 15mm 151/15 machine guns. We have been losing a steady number of bombers to both anti-air and enemy fighters, so anything to reduce losses will be good. With increasing numbers of Russian tanks and armoured vehicles reported, the mechanical engineers have been reassigned to improving our anti-tank barrels and sights.

15mm machinegun installed in a Fw 200 “Condor”.​

The pointless circling of the huge cloud of aircraft over Khmel’nyts’kyy resumed before dawn: neither side was capable of dealing more than superficial damage to the other. More importantly to von Försters’s men below, not one bomb landed anywhere neat Budhyo’s men. Luckily the Luftwaffe was more effective elsewhere.

The Battle of Sigulda was close fought, but the Marines, backed by heavy tanks and regular infantry, triumphed in the end. It was an even battle, with both sides losing about 1,850 men each. The critical factor, though, is that now the Baltic Army has a bridgehead across the Daugava.

There only three other news items from the Front (other than routine updates). The first was another brief sally into Iwacewicze by Bergmann’s motorised infantry. After a few hours he was again recalled, a really surprising decision as he looked to have Nikitin well under control.

3rd Battle of Iwacewicze​

The second was the cancellation of air transport flights into Riga. The stockpile there is now quite large, and with an overland route open there is no need to spend fuel and risk valuable aircraft.

The third was General List again showing initiative, but this time in a good way. Noting that the area to his north was held by just one infantry division, he has swiftly marched 18.Infanterie into Alunga. If he is successful, and all looks well so far, then he should be able to reduce the size of the pocket considerably.

Battle of Alsunga​

Sunday a further sign that the Lithiuanian/Latvian pocket is considered closed. 1st Marinekorps has been officially removed from the control of the Baltic Army and its three divisions are to report to Riga. 1st Schlachtflotte has been ordered to the Finnish Coast, ostensibly to patrol for the Red Fleet, but in reality to detect the presence of Red Army units near the coast. In addition, Admiral Carls has been informed he is to rebase his troopships to Riga and await further orders. It was only after these orders had been posted that it was realised that 3rd Sturm-Marine Division was engaged in heavy fighting and could not withdraw. Even when it is able to retire to Riga, it will be some time before it can be resupplied and rested.

In the meantime, another defeat for von Manstein, and again it is the Memel line that is causing him grief. Pfeffer has reluctantly accepted that 21.Infanterie is sacrificing men for no purpose. It is his first defeat, but his is the fourth failed attempt to cross into Alytus.

Positioned to overlook potential river crossings, Maxim machineguns such as this have frustrated our attempts to establish a foothold in Alytus​

In the air, enemy bombers again broke through to hit Horodneka, but this time Fisser caught them as they turned for home. Losses were light, but Sudet did not return that day. Waber has finally stopped flooding Khmel’nyts’kyy with aircraft and was able to meet Kutakhov on fairly even terms over Kresyliv: the Russian fighters were outclassed.

General Dietrich persuaded Guderian to let him have another attempt at Tarnopol, and although at first appearance the defence is stronger, in reality it is a fragile shell. One good hard shock and it will be all over. Well, that is what Dietrich’s first reports say – he does gloss over the fact that Baranov has 82,000 men to his 8,967. He is correct when he points out that every one of Baranov’s divisions has been badly beaten in the past week or so, so maybe he will be proved right. The open grain fields in the area will help 2nd Panzer remain mobile while offering little to the defenders.

2nd Battle of Tarnopol

A PzKpfw II and SdKfz 251 of 2nd Panzer advance along the rail line to Tarnopol​

End of Part 1

 

[Enewald]

First good pocket!
How come the AI is incapable of using tanks to their full potential`?

 

[Uriah]

60k Germans dead and the situation looks like it shall not change drastically in the near future. Incompetent operational AI?

To be fair, I designed the whole Wehrmacht and set the objectives: I will accept some of the blame if all goes wrong. Of course, it I win, the GLORY IS ALL MINE!

I wonder why the Soviet AI is retreating from battles where it does have fresh units available. Fleeing units will not be operational until they reassemble in their destination province and it is losing ground to you where it does not need to. Furthermore, breaking away may enable your AI to poke some holes in the Soviet lines, possibly accellerating the Soviet retreats. Did you check their supply status? May be they had the out of supply combat modifier which seriously weaken their combat capabilities.

As far as I can make out, supply is still OK to the Russian front provinces. After some thought, I think the AI is placing varying values on different areas and is moving troops to cover those it considers it needs to protect. I should make clear: the fully stocked (supply]/org) units that are leaving are not fleeing - they are moving elsewhere and allowing me to move forward. So they are not losing lots of supply/org: they can still fight.

This makes perfect sense. After all the Germans aren't even near Wilno, Minsk or Kiew yet. So the Russian AI should pull back the full units slowly toward those areas and river lines. It should also SR the badly mauled divisions there so when the Germans finally arrive they have lots of refit units to fight from behind river defenses.

The German AI will be way too slow to take advantage of any of this. The key is to trade land for time to build more units. This is really starting to look like a late '42 win for the red army or early '43.

I think you are right (in part at least). I don't think the AI is "planning" a second line of defence, but I think it may be sending weak units to certain "rally points" and is using its good units to cover them. It is definitely inserting good units to block my attempts to overrun fleeing units: I have only managed to get three or four that way.

What I hope is occurring though is that the Russian economy has switrcehd to supply and reinforement rather than fresh builds: if that is the case then in six months the Red Army will be a shadow of its present strength.

The only problem is I am starting to notice more and more of my units (particularly armour) moving to the rear to recuperate. A sign of supply issues up front? Seems to be plenty of supply making it, but maybe not enough for very exhausted troops.

It may seem odd, but I really think the determinant of victory will be the weather. An extended period of rain and an early snow will savagely reduce the impact of the Luftwaffe - and I have pinned my hopes on a smallish but advanced Heer backed by an immense bombing capacity. If the planes are grounded for a while, the Russians may be able to regroup.

Great update as usual, Uriah! Congratulations on Mare Nostrum in '41!



Why always so pessimistic? Be happy!

Enough has changed that to simply apply Uriah's timetable as inputs to our OTL isn't going to be much use in prediction. It'll be a different war, but a winnable one.

Well, I definitely don't think a 1941 victory is likely or even possible. This may go to the wire but I still think 1942 will see the Red Army bled dry. I just need to survive the winter, and I admit I have never used the AI on defensive on such a scale.

And thanks for the compliment

This is a very optimistic assumption on the abilities of the Soviet AI, one I can not share at all. The AI, unless it has been programmed to revert to the river lines, does not have the inherited ability to make strategic decisions. Even on a tactical level, it will only try to form a cohesive line (= cover all provinces with the hostile nation) and evaluate whether or not it can advance, but only on individual province basis. It does not have a sort of plan of what it is doing, ie it will not adjust production to neccessities of war. If it would, we'd see lots of fighters in the coming months, simply because the German air force is the largest threat to the Soviet war effort currently.

I agree that the AI doesn't (as far as I can see) have "fall back" lines wetc, but I think it will try to cover vulnerable/imporatant areas. See above re retreating units: I think they head to particular spots and the good units move to block me following. And the AI does alter production to some extent: if supply is low or a lot of damaged units it drops production of new units: they sit in the line but don't get much IC. That's what I want to happen.

Besides Barbarossa has been going on for one month only. The German army is not very boot heavy and it has to cover a much larger front than the IRL with Romania out of the game. I think that under these circumstances (and with the immense help from the Luftwaffe) the AI is doing a good job of keeping the pressure up on the whole front while managing some encirclements. That's way more than I thought it would be capable to do.

NOw let's see if the Soviet AI retreating troops is to keep a coherent front line (more than probable after they lost a couple of unit heavy fights they need to reasses the strenght, especially in the northern sectors) or if it is a strategic retreat behind more defensible positions (which would be quite a feat in itself)
PErsonally I think the retreats are part of the troop movements assigned by the AI and that this is a sign that it is struggling to keep up wsith the pressure.

If the pressure is maintained then Uriah will win. It will go on until 1943 but the Soviet will not be able to produce enough manpower to keep his existing force in the field AND produce the unholy amount of units it usually does.

That's the plan, though if it takes unitl 1943 it will see this become the longest AAR ever I fear.

This is based on my playing the game many many times. I posted my predictions for all to see and I stand by them. If wrong then everyone can laugh but if you really look at the game in a realistic manner it flat out doesn't look good for Germany. It's been a month. The first month has the Germans at the absolute strongest. Now look at the progress made. Maybe up to four provinces. That would be like fighting France/Belgium and not even getting to French soil yet. As the war progresses the infrastructure, supply and units advantages strat to go away for Germany. In fact the ONLY potential pocket is one that was done by controlling units manually. And what you don't see is about 30 or 40 more divisions leaving the border with Findland heading south.



Your first paragraph says many of the reasons why things are so bad. It's been a month and very little progress has been made with tons of provinces to go. The soviet AI most likely isn't smart enough to intentially fall back to the river line but will be lucky enough to do it. The AI is smart enough to know that much of the force is at zero organization and has to retreat. It also knows that the two or three divisions with good org can't defend long. So it retreats. This has two positive benefits.

The first is that the attacking units now have to wait for the attack delay (around 100 hours) before attacking again. The retreating units still have their organization so by doing this they eventually retreat back a number of provinces and after a week or two the badly mauled units now have most of their organization back. This means the red army has a defense once again. It just so happens the number of provinces required places it at or near the river line.

You also made the comment "if the pressure is maintained" he would win. That is one of the keys but the AI is running the show here. Since Uriah captured Romania his front line is very big. And lets not forget that his forces on the SU front were kinda small to begin with. So a longer front with a smaller number of units. It just doesn't bode well for the AI.

I went out on a limb and gave fairly detailed predictions in an earlier post. Others can do the same if they think I'm wrong. Then we all can sit back and watch and see who is closest to being right in their predictions.

I don't see anything really controversial in anything you wrote. We willall have to wait and see. I am not sure of my delay time at the moment: I have Operational Level Organisation 3 with 131% leaders. So probably around 100 hours. But remeber that starts from entry into the province. Most attacks take a day or so, so waiting another 48 hours. Until now the AI has managed to keep fresh units moving up: in Polen Army Nord this is no longer possible as the Memel line has sucked them off supply and men.

The most courageous prediction I will make isthat I will beat Russia some time in 1942, but it is pretty worhtless. If the USA suddenly attacks in France in a big way then all deals are off. Similarly, I could ask Japan to join in: probably doom them but it would help me.

As I said earlier: clear weather, all is well, cloudy weather, we suffer badly.

Uriah did research the tech to reduce combat delay. Not sure how low it is, but it should be around 24 hrs max. That's not much time for the AI to dig in.

See above re delay period. I may be wrong, but I think attack speed also helps - if you can get acrioss a province quicker. But maybe I am being hopeful. It doesn't really matter: the key is having fresh units in reserve who can keep leapfrogging forward. I have ot keep the Red Army on the move, not allow them time to sit and rest and recover.

I feel like the key will be the combat in the next 2-3 months. Due to the slow heavy combat the SU has lost over 100 manpower. If Uriah manages to overrun a lot of AI units then he will probably win. If the Soviets are able to conduct a slow fighting retreat to winter without disasters then Uriah will be in trouble. Also, the 30+ divisions from Finland will probably send 1/2 to patch up the losses in what will probably be a pocket in the baltic states.

With the 13 divs in Lith/Lat and the 3-4 I have overrun, that is at least 15 gone. Say 50 brigades. Plus a heap of weakened. And there is along time unitl the first frosts!

I have no clue how you can come up with the 24 hour figure. Attack delay starts off at 168 hours in the LUA file. Each level of technology reduces it by 24 hours. There are 1918, 1936, 1940, 1944 etc tech levels. So the best he can have (1940 tech) would mean an attack delay of 96 hours. This is then modified by officer ratio but no way can it be just 24 hours. My guess is the lowest it can be is around 60 hours and that is being very generous.

See above: but be generous

Cudos to jju_57! He did commit his expectations to the record, fairly early in the process (there are so many experts after the fact) and he did it in a humorous manner. jju_57 might be preaching doom but he left us laughing!

I'm not sure where it will go. Certainly, the initial size of Axis forces, the rate of advance and the casualty rate are all bad but he has two extra months. I am hoping he has a long road to victory but, if he is pushed to the defense, I expect the AI will take severe unit losses (it fails to withdraw units that have zero ORG due to lack of supply). Whatever happens, we (the readers) are the winners!

Hey, I will be a winner. If Germany loses, the AI is hopeless and I would have done much better manually. If Germany wins, I win.

And all done inthe full glare of publicity. It is the true Win-win situation

Is Japan doing anything that will help? In my game it performed very well, taking Soviet maritime provinces.
I enjoyed the update as usual. Its too bad the daily limit can't be averaged for days you don't post. We'll just have to do with less, I guess. But, maybe more often?

I could invite it, but it has only just started to roll in China and I am reluctant to distract it. If the USA joins then I will crawl to Tokyo on bended knees.

I think the "images" limit is per update/post, not per day. In my defence, I do crop all my photos to reduce size, but I don't make the rules.

I will just have to be more attentivce and not get carried away: I should be able to judge. But I also can't do all the stats etc every day - it is just too much work.

So hopefully splitting updates every now and then will do.

 

[loki100]

great stuff as ever, one of the delights of this aar is your determination to stick to the use of the army AI & all the consequences that brings. In my experience its not necessarily less effective in what it aims for than a player (just it uses a different logic) but the main problem is it really costs you in manpower. One trick you might want to adopt is to set your inf divs not to reinforce unless the combat brigades drop below 2000. One is this will save you IC, the other is it cushions your manpower pool a bit, so that at least your armour/air can be kept as robust as possible.

don't want to turn this into a discussion of the AI, but from my own aar, I've seen the German AI do 2 things that some commentators suggest it doesn't. First it pulled off a partial strategic withdrawal from an entire sector and then used those forces elsewhere, second it does try to pull units with nil supply/low org out the front, but the problem is it uses SR, which actually worsens the situation as first the supply need increases & second the exiting units take the available suppply with them - leaving less for those left behind. It will also go hunting weak spots even when it is overall falling back. It also does look for points to hinge a defense line on (but agree it doesn't look 4-5 provinces back for such a point as a player would).

 

[Uriah]

I know that this may have been addressed before, but has anyone experienced rapidly expanding save games? Normally mine are in the 12-14Meg range, but suddenly they jumped: 18, 18, 24, 25, 25, 34, 30, 76, 76, 76 Meg

They take forever to save and even longer to load.

I've had a quick look and it seems as though thousands of combat details are tacked onto the end (after the trade and inflation files.)

Is this normal? (I think not). But if not, what can I do to stop an/or reverse it.

I will post inthe tech support forum, but I wanted to actually play and will need to decide if I need to go back a fair way to where the problem seems to have started. It could be about 11th May 1941 - I really odn't want to do that, so any advise gratefully accepted.

 

[Uriah]

OK - think I solved it.

Somehow my autosave got put to "Yearly". (I have no idea how - maybe when I updated to 2.04). This was about a month ago in game time.

A sample - imagine thousands of lines of this:

history=
{

{
location=1263
attacker="SOV"
defender="GER"
end_date="1941.5.27.6"
type=5
}

{
location=2972
attacker="GER"
defender="---"
end_date="1941.5.27.7"
type=1
}

{
location=1263
attacker="GER"
defender="SOV"
end_date="1941.5.27.7"
type=3
}

{
location=10573
attacker="SOV"
defender="BUL"
end_date="1941.5.27.8"
convoy=yes
type=2
}

{
location=1177
attacker="---"
defender="GER"
end_date="1941.5.27.8"
type=1
}

{
location=1137
attacker="SOV"
defender="---"
end_date="1941.5.27.9"
type=1

The save game was accumulating details of every combat for the whole period. I am reluctant to manually delete them as I don't understand how the "save" function works - if it looks for "History" and its not there could be a problem. But I set save game for a week and ran as Afghanistan. Auto save triggered: file size back to 12Meg. Did a manual save a day later - still ok.

I don't know if that is how it is supposed to work but I hate to think how big the file would be if you set it to "5 years". Adn if you set it to "Never" does it simply ignore "History" or does it save everything?

Anyway, sorry to have wasted anyone's time.

 

[Uriah]

Spoke too soon.

When I loaded as Germany and played unitl the auto save fired, then save again, both were 75Meg save games.

On inspection, in the "History" section, which should have a few dozen recent combats, I have hundreds of thousands of duplicates. If I convert to Word, it is more than 50,000 pages. Only one response from Technical foruim, and that was a different problem.

Wasted some hours yesterday evening on this, now resinged to manually deleting the spam. Just hope it doesn't repeat. Sorry for the delay in updates but this could be a real problem. If the file gets much bigger it won't load.

 

[Uriah]

Rank and File
A Clerk’s War​

Friday 16th to Monday 19th May 1941 (Part 2)

At last General von Kluge has got himself organised and Österreich Army is on the move again. 2nd Gerbirgsjäger and 6th SS Freiwilligen “Nord” have struck northeast into Zhovten, where General Rivkin has 3 divisions waiting. 98 Strelekovaya is still intact, but 81 Motorizovannaya is still recovering from its losses in Illichiv’ssk, and 156 Strelkovaya is still showing signs of the damage it suffered in Sarata, weeks ago. Behlendorff told Q that he will have the province within days, but he was wrong. Before nightfall Zhovten was ours and 26,000 defeated Russians were on the roads north and east.

Battle of Zhovten​

At the same time, General Engelbrecht has another two Gerbirgsjäger divisions with which to capture the province to the north: Pervomanys’k. This should be even easier, as General Golubovskij has only two divisions, with 195 Strelkovaya a survivor of the battle for Orhei.

Battle of Pervomays’k​

General Buhle has crushed resistance in Zloczów: General Bondarev was not able to stabilise the defence and Soviet losses were high. Considering that the Red Army committed more than 62,000 men to this one province, our losses at just over 800 men, were reasonable. Horodok was a tougher fight, but General Warlimont and 45.Infanterie stuck to their guns and finally saw off Kiselev and his men.

Soldiers of 45.Infanterie advance on Horodok, as fires lit by the retreating Russians burn on the horizon.​

Our heavy tanks are to be given improved guns: the 5cm KwK 40/L48. Our whole heavy tank model is in the process of being revised: another indication that OKW expects hard fighting ahead. Research is now concentratedon developing an improved flamethrower vehicle for infantry support: the Flammpanzer III.

Nobody will be able to say General Bergmann is a quitter. General Nikitin must be resigned to the constant reports that, yet again, 14.Infanterie is closing on his from lines. With his men rested and ammunition, food and fuel stocks full, he is probably confident that once again his defences will deter Bergmann after a few hours. I wouldn’t be so sure: Bergmann is experienced and showed in Poland that he is not likely to give in.

5th Battle of Iwacewicze​

Von Förster’s endurance exceeded that of Budhyo and although the Luftwaffe’s performance over Khmel’nyts’kyy was poor, on the ground our soldiers outfought more than double their number. In Torczyn Hansen also drove out far more than his number: more than 50,000 men are fleeing from 16.Infanterie(mot).

Jodl’s attack on Powórsk is unlikely to go so well – in fact questions have been asked in Berlin as to whether General Rommel was correct in approving this Jodl’s request for permission to advance. To start with, General Rybeck, although nowhere near as experienced as Jodl, has a five to one advantage in numbers. At least five of his six divisions are in good shape, he has good defensive terrain and he has had time to prepare some sort of trench line and clear fields of fire. 14.Infanterie will need a lot of luck to come out of this without a very long casualty list.

Battle of Powórsk​

If Bergmann is persistent, then General Wünnenberg is a glutton for punishment. I can only imagine the response from 9th Panzer when the word was received that they were again to move east and attempt a river crossing into Alytus. General Oborin still has his same two divisions and would have to be confident: he has seen too many of our men die in the river in front of him to be concerned.

5th Battle of Alytus

Oborin’s men have plenty of these PTRD anti-tank rifles, which can still take out a Panzer III from the side or rear (and even the front if allowed close enough).​

Last news for the day was not good: von Schobert has suffered a humiliating defeat in Panevezys. 1,448 of his 9,570 men have been killed while his opponent, Sandalov lost just 690 men.

Not a good note on which to end the first month of Unternehemen Barbarossa. The feeling around OKW is that things are not going as well as anticipated, but not too badly. OKL is sure the Luftwaffe can do better, but blames the weather. OKH believes that our intelligence was at fault: we have been surprised at the number, tenacity and technical excellence of the Red Army.

I look at the enormous lists of dead and hope that next month they are much, much shorter. Because there will be a next month, and one after that. In fact, the months could stretch into years, and without an improvement, we will be a nation of women, children and old men.

Baltic Army

Seduva: The promised assistance from Agricola’s 72.Infanterie has been cancelled, presumably as there is no other unit to defend Raseiniai. Böttcher is encouraging his Sturm-Marines forward, despite prisoners informing us that while Kuzmin still has the same three divisions at the front, he now has 8 infantry and a cavalry division at the rear, as well as 3 HQ detachments, giving him 95,000 men. ( 77% complete)

Tukums: 215 Motorizovannaya has straggled in from Plunge but will not be able to help General Lebedenko much other than soak up some casualties. (63% complete)

Aizkraukle: No change. (69% complete)

Polen Army Nord

5th Kaunas: Although von Pannwittz has rejoined the attack, hopes of success are decreasing. Ershakov has been given two battle ready divisions (55 Kurskaya and 196 Dnepropetrovskaya) and has retaken some of the ground he lost earlier. (27% complete)

Alytus: No change. (36% complete)

4th Iwacewicze: General Batiuk has arrived with 26ya Armiya and 32 Corps HQ, both of which seem to have lost most of their support staff. Bergmann has ignored this and has made a breakthrough the front lines. (62% complete)

Sopockinie: No change, other than Felber has ordered all four of his divisions to mount a simultaneous assault. (60% complete)

Dobele: The original defenders have pulled out, though 8 Dal’nevostochnaya Kaveleriyskaya is still present. 70 Strelkovaya is also in action and this has had a negative impact on Brandenburger’s schwere panzers. (22% complete)

Polen Army Sud

2nd Drohiczyn Poleski: No change other than Frießner has shocked the defenders, reducing their ability to resist. (52% complete)

2nd Skidel: No change (45% complete)

Powórsk: 13 Tankovaya, 316 Strelkovaya and 185 Motorizovannaya have been withdrawn. All these units were in good condition, so their recall has weakened General Rybak’s force considerably. Nevertheless, General Jodl is facing an uphill battle. It will not have pleased him that his forward units have fallen into an ambush. (41% complete)

Balkans Army

Ul’yanovka: Baranov has lost 118 and 134 Strelkovaya from his front lines, and they have been replaced by 109 Motorizavannaya. It is hard to understand why, as 109 is weaker than the two divisions it replaced. 24 Krasnozam has also been taken from his reserve. Von Roques on the other hand, has had 6.Infanterie arrive from Bershad’ and 36.Infanterie is marching north from that province at full speed. (77% complete)

Uman: Every unit in Uman has fled, leaving the defence to 135 Strelkovaya which has staggered into the province from Yampil’ just in front of 111 and 76.Infanterie. (98% complete)

2nd Tarnopol: No change, other than Baranov has increased his reserves with 80 Strelkovaya and 103 Motorizovannaya. (73% complete)

Skalat: Höpner has been reinforced with 36.Infanterie while Bochenkov has lost 5 Tankovaya and 305 Strelkovaya. (26% complete)

Österreich Army

Pervomays’k: No change. (83% complete)

Balta: Osyka has exchanged 11 Strelkovaya for 304 Strelkovaya but is still waiting for his new unit to move up from the rear. While he waits he is carrying out a tactical withdrawal. (46% complete)

The East Front

Finalised Battles for Friday 16th to Monday 19th May 1941

Siauliai: 830/19,938: 1,537/54,611
Podhacje: 1,934/38,893: 3,819/50,642
Raseiniai: 315/9,206: 235/18,991
Kaunas: 245/9,467: 42/17,122
Iwacewicze: 96/19,938: 130/17,998
Drohiczyn Poleski: 485/10,000: 452/68,815
Tarnopol: 134/11,398: 70/8,996
Vainode: 137/11,398: 283/8,996
Sigulda: 1,832/31,933: 1,878/17,986
Iwacewicze: 15/10,000: 30/16,995
Alytus: 440/19,039: 229/25,996
Zloczów: 807/31,449: 1,576/62,399
Horodok: 1,043/19,902: 1,391/24,931
Zhovten: 101/19,995: 102/25,991
Khmel’nyts’kyy: 1,746/19,991: 1,797/45,331
Torczyn: 524/31,738: 605/50,938
Panevezys: 1,448/9,570: 690/56/276

Total Battle Casualties for Friday 16th to Monday 19th May 1941

German: 12,132
Russian: 14,866

Prior Battle Casualties

German: 59,488
Russian: 75,182

Total Battle Casualties to date

German: 12,132 + 59,488 = 71,620
Russian: 14,866 + 75,182 = 90,048


Bombing Summary

Luftwaffe

Torczyn: Sperrle with 1st Kampffleigerkorps: 286, 290, 193, 170, 318, 270, 172, 231, 252, 293, 193, 234 (2902)
Alytus: Kitzinger with 3rd Kampffliegerkorps: 228, 257 (485)
Kaunas: Keller with 7th Kampffliegerkorps: 189, 262, 209 (660)
Khmel’nyts;kyy: Schwartzkopff with 2nd Kampffliegerkorps: 129, 132, Nil, Nil, Nil, Nil (261)
Balta: Dörstling with 6th Kampffliegerkorps: 307, 148 (455)
Horodok: Müller-Michels with 5th Kampffliegerkorps: 227, 316, 294, 108 (945)
Drohiczyn Poleski: Hoffmann von Waldau with 4th Schlachtfliegerkorps: 125, 182, 231 (538)
Skalat: Müller-Michels with 5th Kampffliegerkorps: 238, 168 (406)

VVS

Horodenka: Sudets with 3BAD, 2 MBAD: 54, 97, 75, 78 (304)

Total Bombing Casualties for Friday 16th to Monday 19th May 1941

German: 304
Russian: 6,652

Prior Bombing Casualties

German: 874
Russian: 59,761

Total Bombing Casualties to Date

German: 304 + 874 = 1,178
Russian: 6,652 + 59,761 = 66,413

Total East Front Casualties for Friday 16th May to Monday 19th May 1941

German: 12,132 + 304 = 12,436
Russian: 14,866 + 6,652 = 21,518

Prior East Front Casualties

German: 60,362
Russian: 134,943

Total East Front Casualties to date

German: 12,436 + 60,362 = 72,798
Russian: 21,518 + 134,943 = 156,461

 

[jju_57]

As always another fine read and very entertaining.

Concerning my other posts, don't get me wrong. I would really like to see Uriah win. I'm not cheering for defeat. I just tried to give a fair (and early) prediction based on what I'm seeing and my previous experience. Japan, Italy, USA are all unknowns. As a former US Secretary of Defense once said. "There are known knowns. There are known unknowns. But the real problems always come from the unknown unknowns." And I think Uriah mentioned one of these. Are the Soviets now spending IC on reinforcements and supply or new units.

 

[Enewald]

I thought the save game problems were solved 1.5 years ago...
Ghost trades? Dead diplomatic deals?
Large OOBs? Ghost fleets?
Too much history?

 

[Uriah]

First good pocket!
How come the AI is incapable of using tanks to their full potential`?

I have always wondered that. In my ignorance I have thought that it would be simple to have the AI give prefernece to inf/eng etc to attack cities, and pref. to armour on flat. Maybe it does but theree are other variables such as proximity, org. and leadership.

It has been the same since HOI1 as far as I remember, so I suppose I am used to it.

great stuff as ever, one of the delights of this aar is your determination to stick to the use of the army AI & all the consequences that brings. In my experience its not necessarily less effective in what it aims for than a player (just it uses a different logic) but the main problem is it really costs you in manpower. One trick you might want to adopt is to set your inf divs not to reinforce unless the combat brigades drop below 2000. One is this will save you IC, the other is it cushions your manpower pool a bit, so that at least your armour/air can be kept as robust as possible.

don't want to turn this into a discussion of the AI, but from my own aar, I've seen the German AI do 2 things that some commentators suggest it doesn't. First it pulled off a partial strategic withdrawal from an entire sector and then used those forces elsewhere, second it does try to pull units with nil supply/low org out the front, but the problem is it uses SR, which actually worsens the situation as first the supply need increases & second the exiting units take the available suppply with them - leaving less for those left behind. It will also go hunting weak spots even when it is overall falling back. It also does look for points to hinge a defense line on (but agree it doesn't look 4-5 provinces back for such a point as a player would).

As I said elsewhere, MP is my biggest problem, and it is geting worse. I think I am now about 700, down from 800 at the start fo Barbarossa.

Can't comment on defensive AI: as mentioned earlier, I haven't played a big defensive on AI. The winter could be a steep learning curve!

As always another fine read and very entertaining.

Concerning my other posts, don't get me wrong. I would really like to see Uriah win. I'm not cheering for defeat. I just tried to give a fair (and early) prediction based on what I'm seeing and my previous experience. Japan, Italy, USA are all unknowns. As a former US Secretary of Defense once said. "There are known knowns. There are known unknowns. But the real problems always come from the unknown unknowns." And I think Uriah mentioned one of these. Are the Soviets now spending IC on reinforcements and supply or new units.

I wouldn't worry too much about me winning: if that was my driver Iwould be interfering in every battle. (And I have started getting all my excuse ready anyway ).

I think you are right on many points, I just hope you have underestimated my airpower and tech advantage.

As for the Soviet spend, I can't see they have much to spend on new builds if I look at my costs for reinforcment and supply - their's must be several times as large.

I thought the save game problems were solved 1.5 years ago...
Ghost trades? Dead diplomatic deals?
Large OOBs? Ghost fleets?
Too much history?

Massive duplications of History.

Podcat has asked for (and rec'd) a save file and recommends deleting the excess (which I had already done).

I was worried if it continued I would get a save game file so big I couldn't load it.

 

[shepherd352]

My save games are between 10 and 20 MB. It doesn't seem to matter which country I play but they get larger as the date advances (Germany, mid 1943 is 20MB). I'm, playing ICE and I set it for weekly saves. I just delete the saves, excluding ones that I might go back to (but I don't often go back).

[Edit] I like the updates but can we get a personal view of one of these battles? Perhaps our clerk's brothers can write to him of what they have experienced. I know those personal accounts are a huge effort but everyone appreciates them.

 

[Uriah]

My save games are between 10 and 20 MB. It doesn't seem to matter which country I play but they get larger as the date advances (Germany, mid 1943 is 20MB). I'm, playing ICE and I set it for weekly saves. I just delete the saves, excluding ones that I might go back to (but I don't often go back).

I could live withthat - but 75 MB and growing was a concern.

 

[unmerged(159415)]

Another great update! keep up the good work.

As ive said before and to echo Loki100, one of the best aspects of this AAR is your use of the AI and your commitment to it. We have all (im sure) played as Germany with complete player control and rolled east with ease to bitter peace or total victory. AAR examples of this litter the board. Your AAR's attraction, beyond the excellent writting and incredible detail is the suspense of NOT KNOWING WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN. Can the AI with a smaller but more advanced army and an excellent airforce defeat the giant red blob? I hope so but and im sure the read will be exciting regardless of the final outcome.

Hope your tech problem is an easy fix (i have no idea myself, i can turn on this infernal machine and thats about it).

PS !! FlammpanzerIII !!

 

[Solo?]

Great update, the images you use are fantastic. The colour photo you have used for Horodok is spectacular.

I thought the save game problems were solved 1.5 years ago...
Ghost trades? Dead diplomatic deals?
Large OOBs? Ghost fleets?
Too much history?

I thought the same. Not to wanting to sound terribly pessimistic, but I'd be a little fearful that your save game might be in some way corrupted.

 

[unmerged(140582)]

Hopefully, the weather stays relatively clear for the rest of the year. Pitting your hopes on the Luftwaffe was always going to be a gamble. Against Father Winter deep in Russia, holding the line is going to become a tough challenge.
I'm still pretty confident, though. True, if GER was completely under AI-control, I'd worry about a collapse sometimes in late 1942/early 1943 by now. But there is a human player at the helm who can make a drastic difference, in build-orders, strategic decisions and the reserve of special divisions. That's a drastic difference compared to an AI-country. So I think any kind of doomsaying is a bit premature. Even if the Führer has already started thinking up excuses.

 

[NERFGEN]

apart from the usual compliments on the quality of the updates.

I will start to be concerned when I see the first signs of a Soviet counteroffensive. Probably in the north.
I hope that pocket gets reduced soon.

According to me the progress of the Heer against a mobilised and nearly full strength Red Army is quite good and completely incomparable to the state of affairs at the early stages of RL Barbarossa.