SPECIAL EDITION: Two Centuries Update
Bree: Good evening everyone, I am Bree Zenter, and I will be hosting tonight's special edition of Big Ruler. My guests will be Ray and George, hosts of the show, as well as Bob, from "Bob and Jim", hosts of the world known Double Domination show. Tonight we will discuss What happened in the last century, and what has to be expected in the next one.... Just as for the first century, we have had a total of 12 rounds. Bob... Did you follow this century?
Bob: Well, this time I did Bree. A lot of actions, while not enough in Europe for my taste.
Bree: Yes. It looks like most of action was done overseas. Ray, can you confirm?
Ray: I can. The century started slowly, as François Hyacinthe died only three years into the second century. He only had time to consolidate small positions in Europe. His brother Philibert only had a fifteen years reign, but it gave the direction for the century. Philibert focused on the Middle-East, connecting the Jerusalem and Alexandria holdings, and pushing North to Syria. This is a task his son Louis also followed, increasing Savoy's holdings in Turkey and down the Nile, but Louis was also strongly focused on Europe: he acquired three new crowns, in Milan, Austria and Hungary, founded Italy, and increased its realm in Italy, France and Ireland. This is also the time when Aragon started colonizing, with Madeira and the Senegal.
Bree: Europe arrived lately in the colonization process.
Ray: Indeed. During about 150 years, France, England, Castille, Savoy and Portugal were continuously fighting each other. This total war is actually is still going right now, while Italy and its allies dropped out of it after Louis' reign, allowing colonizing. Aragon discovered America in 1511, and started colonizing it right away. Philippe mainly focus his efforts on the Hordes territory in Caucasus, before implanting colonies in the Indian. By strength, he also grabbed nearly all North Africa, Turkey, and made reasonable progress in Persia. He had a 45 years reign, so he really had been able to impose his policy for a continuous time. His nephew Ferdinando did very well considered his short 6-years reign. He started consolidate the colonies in the Indian Ocean by sending settlers on existing colonies, grabbing ultimately very few lands there, and focus his war efforts on West Africa and Persia. Simultaneously, Aragon and Anjou did very well with the colonization of Ghana and the Caribs.
Bree: here is a map which illustrates it.
Bob: This is not really surprising. This succession of events is classical in alternative history.
Bree: What do you mean?
Bob: See, until 1450, Muslims still are powerful, so Europeans better fight each other than going into crusade trouble. But around 1500, it should be a race to North Africa. France, Castille and England decided to join but did too little too late. Once this task is done, the main race should be the colonies, but again, the Italy-Aragon couple is progressing very fast, I doubt there will be anything left for the other powers....
Ray: You are perfectly right Bob. A thing you didn't mention though is Italy's financial power. By controlling so much land, including several center of trades spread around the Mediterranean, and simultaneously slowing down the war efforts to invest in trade and production efficiency, Italy became by far the wealthiest nation on Earth. Actually, 5 of the 12 richest nations on Earth are under Italian rule: Italy of course, Aragon, Lorraine, Austria and Anjou.
Bob: You were talking of slowing down the military research?
George: Yes, unfortunately.
Ray: George, you know these efforts were needed to maintain such army. Moreover, this had actually been done under François-Hyacinthe, even if none of his successors did anything against it. Right now, very few nations are more advanced technologically than Italy.
Bob: I see. So what can slow down Italy right now?
Ray: I would say, Italy itself.
Bree: What ?
Ray: Its expansion slows down Italy.
George: What ?
Ray: OK, let me rephrase. Right now, there are two major things that could slow down Italy: not being the Holy Roman Emperor, and not controlling the Curia. Italy grows so quickly that everybody considers them as "Bad Boys". No Italian cardinal is ever elected, while Italy controls most of the catholic world, and no one ever votes for Italy during HRE Elections.
Bree: But... Saluzzo, Pfalz and Saxony aren't Italy vassals?
Ray: They are! Still, they vote for Bohemia! Actually, only Hussite Koln does not vote for Bohemia!
Bree: I indeed can see that the Hussites are still powerful, mostly around the North Sea and the Baltic. Aren't they supposed to be gone by now?
Ray: They are, but in this reality, They still are powerful.
Bob: I can see that Italy is doing a good job on converting Muslim lands?
Ray: Actually, not that much. Most of the catholic provinces in Africa are colonies, they never were Muslims. Not being connected to the capital makes it harder for missionaries to evangelize these populations, may they be Sunni, Shiite, or Orthodox. At least, there is no Hussite land anymore in Italy.
Bree: Interresting. Here is the situation in Western Europe. Can you comment Ray?
Ray: Yes. England seems to be the most dangerous opponent for Italy right now, as they have several holdings: Moldavia, Albania, Tunisia, Ireland, South-West of France, Hamburg, Goteborg... They are spreading like hell. Castille comes in second position, with holdings in Morocco, Southern Italy, Norway and Finland. That being said, France, Bohemia and Poland still are powerful.
Bob: What about Sweden?
Ray: They are not anymore.
George: No, the real Nordic power is Moscow.
Bree: I'll not that the Red blob in the Oural is not England, but the Timurids.
George: Yes. They proved to be a challenge lately. They are a powerful and vast Empire... it will be tricky for Italy to go East of the Caspian sea.
Bob: They are the main Muslim threat I agree. Hejaz it the second one though.
George: You are right. Zabulistan is powerful too, but is not threatening Italy. Hejaz on the other hand is difficult to fight, as there is only a small corridor between the Red Sea and the Arabic Desert to go through. It might change if Italy manages to conquer the Kuwait area, or go down to the African part of the Gulf of Aden. Jalayirids should not be problematic anymore though.
Bree: You were speaking of Africa... What about the main powers there?
George: Well, Kanem Bornu does not looks like collapsing anymore, and might be a threat. Due to its location though, I doubt anyone will want to go that way, deep into Africa. It requires too many men and it is just not worth it.
Bob: Mali is not a problem anymore from what I saw...
George: Indeed. The last war with Mali proved to be a success. I think Italy will still want to progress quickly in that Area, as Anjou colonies are not protected, and no one would like to revive the colonial loss we saw when Fez captured the growing "Aragonese Africa".
Bree: Fez itself is not a problem anymore.
George: It is not, and should be annexed anytime soon.
Ray: Before we go to Asia, I would like to add that Aragon is doing very well in South Africa, but the colonies are still undefended, so any conflict with Ndongo or Mutapa should be avoided...
Bree: The situation in Asia looks messy...
Ray: Daxia and Song are the regional Powers, followed by Indian nations Gondwana, Garjat and Vijanyagar. Tibet, Pegu and Brunei also are forces to respect.
George: The situation in Asia needs to be taken with cautious. Italy has the superiority, but also has a lot of undefended colonies. Moreover, they would be heavily outnumbered in case of a war. WIth only one transport / war fleet for the entire Indian Ocean, from Sinai to Australia, it would take forever to bring reinforcements in, and Italy will not be able to catch local fleets invading its lands.
Ray: This is why Italy is now progressing slowly in terms of territorial gain. They need to reinforce their colonies to fortify them, before going on the offensive.
Bree: I see. Last point is America...
Ray: It is tough to map the actual extends of the commonwealth in America, as our satellites are focused on Italy, and Italy did not discover most of Aragon current colonies...
Bob: Well, I heard you say that last time, so I took the liberty to took some shots with my own satellite, focused on Aragon... I hope you don't mind...
Ray: I don't. This really gives more perspective than the map views... Aragon is progressing quickly... There will not be anything left for the other European nations!
Bree: Doesn't look like it, indeed. George, last time you gave us a hint on Savoy's orientations for the next century, do you remember?
George: I do... I said Italy would probably focus on five center of Trades: Dubrovnik, Genoa, Tunis, Ankara, Copenhagen, and they did. They captured 3 out of the 5 towns already.
Ray: You also said Savoy would focus on Aquitaine, the South-West HRE and the East Adriatic....
George: They did. They did not capture as many land there as I was hopping for, but they definitively did. I also said they will go for Muslim lands, from several ways, and they did. Italy was also a nice progress... I was not entirely right, but I was far from being wrong....
Bree: I think so too. This is why I would like to know what you think the next century will bring us...
George: Wars. Probably. Lately, Italy focused on its borders reduction. To this intend, they should reduce their enclaves. Morocco, Tunisia, Aquitaine, the Adriatic, Crimea, Persia and Indonesia should be the main war zones in the upcoming century.
Bree: These are the yellow areas... What about the other ones?
George: They follow two logics: Ural, Mali and Moldavia are here to connect Italian holdings. This is important to do so, even if it means deploying more men to defend it.
Ray: What about the North Sea area? This is insane, this is HRE land!
George: Precisely. Non-HRE nations currently hold this land, so Italy can legitimately liberate them. The rest is Hussite land... I am sure Italy can grab a few vassals here if they become Emperor or Defender of the Faith.
Bob: Blue arrows are possible expansion paths?
George: They are. I am pretty sure these coastlines will be filled before 1600, as it can be done pacifically or with very easy war. I'm not sure about expansion in Indonesia though. We'll have to be cautious...
Bree: Thank you George. Ray, when is the next episode of Big Ruler?
Ray: Round XXV will be tomorrow, with Antonio I being crowned..
Bree: Exciting. Bob, Thanks for passing by, this was a pleasure to see you. Ray, George, Good luck for the next show. Good night everyone, don't miss the next episode of Big Ruler!