Chapter 8: The Lithuanian Drang Nach Osten Begins
By 1485, Kazimierias the Old Goat was certainly living up to his name. He offered Poland the chance to become a Lithuanian vassal that year, and he took the Polish refusal as a personal insult. On his eastern frontier, meanwhile, The Golden Horde was on the verge of collapsing yet again. Kazimierias had for many years been searching for a casus belli against the Horde, but his best machinations to date had all failed. In 1486, he elected to declare war on the Mongols notwithstanding his lack of a CB. The people of Lithuania were most upset by this action, but as Kasimierias and his government were hated already, stability didn’t change much (fell from –2 to –3). The Golden Horde territories, half of which were in rebel hands, proved easy pickings, and soon Voronoes, Bogutjar, Saratow, and Ufa were occupied by Lithuanian forces. The agile Lithuanian Hussars had easily scattered the few small detachments of soldiers the Horde managed to muster in its defense, and by 1488, the war seemed sure to produce a crushing Lithuanian victory.
The latter half of the 1st Eastern War (1486-91) would prove a major disappointment for Lithuania, both due to the intransigence of the Golden Horde in peace negotiations and due to the intervention of the Ak Koyonlu, a sheep-loving Turkic people who had allied themselves with the Horde. Forces from the Ak Koyonlu arrived at the front in late 1488, and retook Bogutjar from its Lithuanian occupiers. Lithuanian troops were able to take Bogutjar for a second time shortly afterwards, but then they had to ride north to displace the armies of the Ak Koyonlu who were camped outside Ryazan. The Lithuanians secured a narrow victory in Ryazan, but then there appeared on the scene 30,000 of the Ak Koyonlu’s dreaded sheep-riders, who rode to battle on the backs of their menacing armored war-sheep. In 1491, with the fearsome sheep-riders besieging Ufa and war-exhaustion revolts beginning back home, Kazimierias decided it was high time to put an end to the war. He instructed his diplomats as follows: “We have a 46% warscore, demand as much as you can up to 23-24% and they’ll have no choice but to accept.” Kazimierias’ diplomats were rather bewildered by these instructions, which marked the beginnings of senility in the Old Goat, but they understood the point and moderated their demands. The Golden Horde finally agreed to surrender Saratow, Vorones, and 75 ducats to secure a 5-year peace with Lithuania. In the aftermath of the war, junior officers Mykola Radivil (3/2/2) and Mykhalo Glynskiy (3/2/4) were promoted to the ranks of full commander. Radivil was given command of the Lithuanian infantry and Glinskiy was appointed to lead the Hussars.
Peace had come none too soon, for by 1492 Kazimierias the Old Goat was dead. The Estates chose the mediocre Alexsandras I (3/6/3) as Grand Duke (r. 1492-1506). In 1493, Poland declared war on Prussia, and the 4th Baltic War (1493-98) began. Lithuania had few aims in this war and conducted purely defensive campaigns. Prussia sent 2,000 warriors to attack Vilnius, Alexsandras thought it a joke and Mykola Radivil and his 18,000 strong infantry division quickly crushed this force. Forces from Brandenburg would ultimately overrun the Prussian capital, and peace was signed in 1498 with Prussia forced to pay 425D in reparations to the alliance.
A map from the Lithuania Cartography Office from 1492. Confusingly, Lithuania and Tuscany have the same color leading many to mistakenly believe Donetsk to be Lithuanian, when it was, in fact, Tuscan.