Werewolf CCXXIX: Jingle Hells

[Dedonus]

Nothing has changed from yesterday. Alxeu and k-59 still have the worse vote records, could be of either pack and I recommend we TIE them. We haven't even had a TIE yet and we should be ashamed.

Is there no zombie hunter left to kill off at least horny who has an equally terrible record?

Once we know the true affiliation of these people we can work with the information received, as both alxeu and k-59 have been run up previously or look for alternatives based on something other than record.

As I voted alxeu yesterday I'll start today differently:

Vote k-59

Spoiler

I would also like to add that Johho did not share with me what his last scan was (i.e. the one after Capibara). For all we know, he might have contacted his last scan and his last scan might have turned over that information over to the pink pack (still assuming that the pink pack hunt on even-numbered nights because night 0 had a blue pack wolf hunted).

So, let's look at all the throw-away votes that we had so far.

Day 1:
BohemianJulius (Arkasas), Sleepyhead (Tris2), Arkasas (De Chat), Capibara (Aedan), Beartjah (Health), Horny99 (Claude LC), Yvanoff (Ramius)

Day 2:
Randakar (TheFatWombat), BohemianJulius (Avernite), Tris2 (Health), alxeu (no vote), k-59 (no vote_

Day 3:
Horny99 (Hax), K-59 (Claude LC) |Post-Outing| Dedonus (Xarkan), BohemianJulius(Xarkan), Emperor Ike (Xarkan)

Day 4:
Horny99 (Hax), Yvanoff (no vote)

Day 5:
Beartjah (Ike), Sleepyhead (Claude LC), Xarkan (Caillean), Claude LC (no vote), all zombies (no vote), Yvanoff/Caillean (no vote)

Day 6:
Yvanoff/Caillean (Avernite), BohemianJulius (Avernite), Randakar (Aedan), Horny99 (BohemianJulius), K-59 (Randakar), |Post-Outing| Claude LC (Sleepyhead), alxeu (no vote)

BohemianJulius and Horny99 both really stand out, each having a throw-away on 5 of the 6 days. However, for all we know, that's their voting rule to never switch.

Number of Throw-aways:
BohemianJulius - 5
Sleepyhead - 2
Arkasas - 1
Beartjah - 2
Horny99 - 5
Yvanoff/Caillean - 4
Randakar - 2
Tris2 - 1
K-59 - 3
Dedonus - 1
Emperor Ike - 1
Xarkan - 1
Claude LC - 2
alxeu - 2

Votes on the Above Players:
BohemianJulius - 2 (Tris2, Horny99)
Sleepyhead - 8 (Cymsdale x2, Aedan (1 pre-outing), Johho (1 pre-outing), Arkasas (1 pre-outing), Tris2 (1 pre-outing), Avernite (1 pre-outing), Claude LC (1 post-outing)
Arkasas - 4 (Tris2, Ramius, BohemianJulius, Johho)
Beartjah - 1 (Alynkio)
Horny99 - 0 (none)
Yvanoff/Caillean - 4 (Health, Dedonus)
Randakar - 1 (K-59)
Tris2 - 4 (hax, cymsdale, sleepyhead, dr. livingston)
K-59 - 1 (wagonlitz)
Dedonus - 1 (dead Caillean, sleepyhead)
Emperor Ike - 8 (cymsdale x3, de chat, johho, alxeu, wagonlitz, beartjah)
Xarkan - 16 (too many to list)
Claude LC - 4 (horny99, k-59, johho, sleepyhead)
alxeu - 2 (avernite, sleepyhead)

From this list, I feel BohemianJulius, Yvanoff/Caillean, and k-59 are the best candidates. All three have drawn little attention to themselves (1-2 votes on them TOTAL).

VOTE K-59

I like the case against k-59, too. Especially since he missed another vote.

If we are going to zombie-hunt/lynch a zombie, I would rather do BohemianJulius first rather than Horny. Horny was scanned by Johho as a villager. That doesn't rule Horny out as a baddie (or even a wolf if the wolves hunted him, although I would think that the wolves would want the zombies alive), but I feel it does reduce the chances of hitting a baddie.

VOTE K-59

 

[Avernite]

Well, I was utterly wrong yesterday, so might as well follow the reasonable logic from Sleepy this time.

Mind, if @k-59 were to show up and explain himself I might change my mind.

Vote k-59

 

[Xarkan]

VOTE Alxeu

I would also consider k-59, but he has plenty of votes for now.

 

[Hax]

Answers you guys probably want, and answers you'll definitely get.

Just, uh, give me time to go home, first? I'm Christmas Shopping right now.

Still waiting for those answers...

 

[Emperor Ike]

I think Alxeu is still a valid candidate.

VOTE Alxeu

 

[Caillean]

As long as we don't have answers, let's put the pressure on him

Vote Alxeu

Maybe he can bribe me with Christmas presents

But a vote count would make me happy too.

 

[Hax]

Still no answer so I will...

VOTE alxeu

 

[Arkasas]

Unofficial Kaunt, ~3 hours to deadline

alxeu: 4
Xarkan (1303)
Ike (1305)
Caillean (1306)
Hax (1307)

k-59: 3
Sleepyhead (1300)
Dedonus (1301)
Avernite (1302)

Thus far abstinent: Arky-Ark, the zombies, alxeu, k-59

 

[Sleepyhead]

Arky-Ark

Will he make TIEY-TIE?

 

[Avernite]

I am a bit worried; my best guess is that either both alxeu AND k-59 are bad, or both are good, because alxeu suggested k-59 or Aedan for my/our guild formation.

Aedan was a baddie, so if alxeu is a goodie it would be VERY unlucky for k-59 to be a baddie by accident.

The fact that noone's made a different case makes the 'neither is bad' seem more likely. Though of course they could be the last two of Aedan's pack so having no outside help available. Hmm.

 

[Arkasas]

@Panzer Commader make the zombies vote!

Avernite, do you have any other ideas?

 

[Sleepyhead]

I am a bit worried; my best guess is that either both alxeu AND k-59 are bad, or both are good, because alxeu suggested k-59 or Aedan for my/our guild formation.

Aedan was a baddie, so if alxeu is a goodie it would be VERY unlucky for k-59 to be a baddie by accident.

The fact that noone's made a different case makes the 'neither is bad' seem more likely. Though of course they could be the last two of Aedan's pack so having no outside help available. Hmm.

That seems like a stretch, a goodie can be in contact with a baddie without knowing it. If not of the same pack, and both are evil, it is possible that one or both are, or started as, unaligned baddie(s) (cultist, sorc). Defending people with a terrible record fitting in both packs is a fool's errand. Aedan didn't even try to defend Tris after she activated the alderman to save a packmate, as an example. For that the best bet it to simply direct attention elsewhere as he did with Arkasas, which is what we should not let happen again IMO.

 

[Avernite]

@Panzer Commader make the zombies vote!

Avernite, do you have any other ideas?

Well we could go back to voting you

I think Sleepyhead's overview a few pages back was pretty good, but over the course of my post I went from 'hmm, this is weird, current events make sense if they are both good' to 'actually, if k-59 and alxeu are both blues the current events also make sense'.

 

[Sleepyhead]

Well we could go back to voting you

I think Sleepyhead's overview a few pages back was pretty good, but over the course of my post I went from 'hmm, this is weird, current events make sense if they are both good' to 'actually, if k-59 and alxeu are both blues the current events also make sense'.

Should not rule out sorcerer either, which is a likely source of the seer hunts if not JL leaks.

 

[Hax]

@alxeu
@k-59
@Arkasas
@Panzer Commader

 

[Avernite]

Should not rule out sorcerer either, which is a likely source of the seer hunts if not JL leaks.

If one of them is a sorceror, the red pack also has some incentive to ensure one of them and not the other dies, though. He might still not be in contact with the reds, given how many times he found a seer according to the 'sorceror caused the seer deaths' principle, but I find it a bit unlikely.

 

[k-59]

I'm a spy and my report on Alexu suggest he is telling the truth. Neither of us are good lynches.

 

[alxeu]

We could always invite one of the zombies, but I think there's an increased chance of the last two being bad, now.

K-59 and aedan seem like decent choices to me, as well.

Aedan in that case, k-59 has had the occasional 'weird vibes' event for me. He might just be a robber or doctor or somesuch middling role trying to hide poorly, but I wouldn't want to risk it.

I suppose a couple of the more interesting PMs between Avernite and I in the midst of guild formation.

Where to begin?

Day Zero, I get given one pickpoint, yay me!

Lady Luck gives me Angelic Powers, and I use them on Avernite after noticing him slipping in the votes day two, and seeing him as a likely hunt target.

After the first guild is formed and burns in the space of a day, I decide that a guild might be a good way to get knowledge as otherwise I'm doing nothing all game.

Avernite, whom I had been in contact with since I'd protected him from nothing, was my first choice.

K-59 and aedan we're my other options, both being fairly active players whom I both considered rather reasonable.

I Iwwas wrong in the case of aedan, who turned out to be a wolf, and now the seer is probably dead due to my poor judgement.

So, elaboration on each point.

I pitched the guild idea to Avernite, as I felt that having used my powers already, I wasn't going to get much out of analysis. The above was quoted PMs were from immediately after he assented to a guild.

I mean, I'm not 100% opposed to a guild formation, but I'd like some more reasoning from you guys about why risking us all dying due to lovers is worth it, even if we do get good traits.

At best, I'm going to gain no information asides from what is in thread for pretty much the rest of the game, at the moment. With guild powers, we have a decent chance of getting something that can help provide the village with information.

As it stands, we just lost a bunch of people yesterday, and so we've already lost valuable time, and buffer from a preemptive end. Since it seems unlikely all of us become lovers, again, I'm willing to take the risk of the other potential downsides of guild information in exchange for potential knowledge that might significantly help the village.

If we do end up all being lovers, and end up a hunt away from death, then we still have a decent chance of acquiring some information before our demise, depending on what our powers end up being.

I'm just kinda bad at the reading other people from their posts alone, and have lost valuable time to do so in my absence due to classes, and personally view any potential untimely demise as a risk worthwhile.

There was the tiniest bit of back and forth between aedan, Avernite, and I, and this was my full reasoning for a guild being necessary for me to gain any information at all that would be helpful.

From there, the guild was formed, the price paid, and from there the guild (of which just aedan was bad, it seems) went and started scanning. We were concerned that it was pretty likely that one of us would die rather soon, so in the end we did use most of our powers, but I think Avernite would agree in that the only scans we'll admit to is scanning Dedonus, as he has previously mentioned, too, and having scanned beartjah, the seer, who was also SA.

Unfortunately, aedan the wolf got his name, too.

Lemme just say that if k-59 is bad, I'd actually be surprised, and Avernite should know that, too. I'm inclined to believe k-59 is good, as there is little chance he is bad, especially with whom has turned up dead, so far.

I'll continue to be around from now on, if there is anything in particular you want, outside of scan results, feel free to ask.

 

[k-59]

Lemme just say that if k-59 is bad, I'd actually be surprised, and Avernite should know that, too. I'm inclined to believe k-59 is good, as there is little chance he is bad, especially with whom has turned up dead, so far.

Oh right I forgot about that. Avernite knows I'm double cleared and is voting me.

Vote Avernite

 

[Avernite]

Oh right I forgot about that. Avernite knows I'm double cleared and is voting me.

Vote Avernite

Double cleared? So far as I'm aware only you being a cultist is discounted.

And you flying under the radar and having a bad record otherwise is known.
And that you are a useless spy so far if you wanted to help the village is all I know.