Turn 21 - Early March: The endgame begins ...
The fate of the Southern White: Reds and Southern White have clashed multiple times this turn. The Red Army has achieved two important victories: It lifted the siege of Novocherkassk and pushed Yudenich's Army back at Tsrskoye Selo (just outside Petrograd).
In the Don area there is nothing left even remotely similar to a frontline. Red and White units are hopelessly intertwined. Overall the Red Army has gained some ground; but the important cities haven't changed hands.
In the Ukraine, the siege of Kiev has been going on for months. Durk prudently doesn't risk an assault and the city is just too big to starve. Once the Polish will finally intervene, they will take care of that problem quickly.
Durk's attempt to take Petrograd with Yudenich's Army seems to have failed. This puts the White cause under additional pressure: starting in the summer of 1920, the Southern White will lose 1 point of NM per turn due to this failure. Hopefully, Durk can at least pin down some Red troops in the North while staying on the defense.
Overall the Communists didn't gain much NM out of their fights with the Southern Whites this turn: If my calculations are correct, the Southern Whites lost a total of 3 points of NM against the Reds. Nevertheless Red NM hasn't increased since the Reds suffered one bad defeat on the Siberian front that cost them 4 points of NM. With Red and Southern White NM both at lows, it seems the endgame has started. It will be a race against time: will the Reds be able to crush Southern White NM before Polish and Siberians finish them off?
Red chances are slim at this point: Durk is anything but a pushover. Additionally, his Southern Whites still have a comfortable NM advantage over the Reds and their army remains strong.
In a paradoxical way, another slight decrease of Southern White NM might even prove advantagous to the White cause: If Southern White NM should drop below 50, chances of a Polish intervention increase from 20% to 50 % per turn.
Northern front: Starvation has significantly weakened Pepeliaev. Although "only" 3.000 men have starved, combat strength dropped considerably due to cohesion losses caused by the supply shortage. Luckily, three fully stocked supply trains have now arrived. They will sustain Pepeliaev for the next two turns.
In the meantime, the Red Army is reducing its combat strength on the Northern front as well. Blucher has been reassigned elsewhere and several brigades seem to have retreated west. Since there isn't a direct railway to Kazan they have to embark on a long railway trip via Volgoda and Moscow. The question is where will they reappear? I fear they might be used against my Southern White allies. After months of impassivity the Red Army doesn't seem to take the Siberians serious anymore.
Southern front: Samoylo tried to break the siege of Syzran. Perhaps his supplies are finally exhausted? The escape attempt was planned as a pincer movement: Samyolo would leave the safety of his positions inside Syzran while Pavlovsky was dispatched by Trotzky to reinforce Samoylo from the North. It would have been smarter if Trotzky had brought his whole force: unlike him Pavlovsky wasn't part of the army structure. As a one star general his force remained independant, meaning he wasn't able to march to the sound of guns. The battle between Kappel and Samoylo was bound to be over before Pavlovsky would reach Syzran.
In the end, this mistake was of little importance since Samoylo proved to be a coward and retreated back into the city without a fight. However Pavlovsky's men continued their march. Even worse, upon entering the region of Syzran, they must have switched to offensive posture (Red military control of the region is too low to enter in defensive posture). The disaster unfolded: Ineptly Pavlovsky's men stumbled into the arms of Kappel's veterans. Instead of retreating they tried to attack the White lines. Most of the Red soldiers were mowed down before they came even close to the White trenches. The whole affair had more similarity to the proceedings before a firing squad than a field battle. Samoylo and his men watched from inside Syzran while Pavlovsky's division was entirely annihilated. Almost 12.000 Communists have fallen. Siberian casualties remained under 1.000 men. Kappel's latest victory gained the Siberian cause another 4 NM.
At least this battle explains why there are no breaches at Syzran: Samoylo has more artillery stacked inside the city than Kappel's siege force has on the outside. The big question is whether Samoylo's corps is really in supply trouble. If so, there is a chance, his men will starve. To make things worse for the besieged Communists, the Volga remains frozen; evacuation by river transport is thus still impossible.
While the supply crisis is still far from solved, most stacks have enough for at least two more turns. With pressure increasing on the Southern White, the Siberian Army can't afford to sit idly by any longer. It's time to launch
Operation Sickle: The opening move will be an attack by Voitsekhovski's cavalry corps from Saratov to Saransk where Kutiakov is in command of a small Red force (6.000 or 7.00 men at most). Hopefully this attack will come as a surprise to the Red Army: Saratov lies far behind the actual frontline; it is not exactly an obvious staging area for an attack north.
Saransk is an important railroad hub: Westward a railway line leads all the way to Moscow. In fact with Moscow only 10 regions away Saransk is the ideal jumping board for a lightning strike against the Red heart. Another railway leaves Saransk towards the North-East. It connects the city to Kazan - yet another tempting target. To the East the only railway line that connects Simbirsk with the rest of the Red forces leads through Saransk as well. Moreover Trotzky is sitting on these railway tracks with 3 armoured trains. Taking Saransk cuts off their only escape route.
Further East a small division under Tarasevich is ordered to retake Bugulma. The idea is to regain control over a vital railroad. It may prove handy come spring.
Fighting Green uprisings: Green rebels are trying hard to gain ground in the Far East and Kazakhstan. However, they failed badly, three battles against Japanese forces have cost more than 4.000 Green rebels their lives. In the meantime Japanese casualties remained low. Unfortunately these victories didn't gain me any NM.