Werewolf Lite CCXXXV: The Empire Strikes Back

[Rendap]

Ok, Day 5.

8 People alive, 2 Wolves.

Unlikely Wolves (all but cleared in my book):

Me: I was a late voter on Randy and helped lynch Euro. But then, I would say I was cleared regardless.
HC: Extremely cold blooded if a wolf with a deciding vote on Randy as well as outing Euro.

Unknowns:

Thandros - Voted Clophi 3 days runing and DoomBunny day 1 - Even with an outing.
Suirantes - Not much data, due to non-vote and sub.
Gigau - Nonvote, Throwaway and deciding for Clophi. Not much to go for, but suspicious.
Kiwi - Second Voter on Randy and part of the Euro Wagon. I simply don't believe that Euro and Kiwi are both voting for Randy as wolves. Not cleared, but better targets out there.
Falc - Very Late voter on Euro and only voted villagers/unknowns
DoomBunny - Part of the Randy Lynch as well as Euro. Not cleared, but better targets.

I think that the 2 remaining wolves are among: Thandros, Gigau, Falc and Suirantes. As the only surviving non-euro voter, I'll

VOTE Thandros

With his post in #142 I think that this is the most likely target out there.

 

[Suirantes]

Vote Thandros

I agree with Rendap, we should start with the most suspicious person.

 

[Thandros]

Why Am I so suspicious? My vote's for Clophi was based on a lot of circumstantial evidence which turned out to be inaccurate suggesting Clophi may be a wolf. Why did the seer if they knew Euro 007 was a wolf, why vote for Clophi then it doesn't make a lot of sense.

 

[Rendap]

Why Am I so suspicious? My vote's for Clophi was based on a lot of circumstantial evidence which turned out to be inaccurate suggesting Clophi may be a wolf. Why did the seer if they knew Euro 007 was a wolf, why vote for Clophi then it doesn't make a lot of sense.

That is a very good point, yet not unheard off.

HC, can you elaborate on the reason why Jens didn't vote for Euro??

Having said that, there is still the fact that you are the only surviving player who haven't helped lynch a wolf - Not even in the outing of Euro.



I am almost certain that HC and Kiwi as well as myself are cleared. Could the 2 of you take a look at my analysis (and throw me in as suspect as well of course) and see if you can shoot some holes in it?

 

[Clophiroth]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Why the hell have you killed me, damn b******s! I thought we were friends!

 

[randakar]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Why the hell have you killed me, damn b******s! I thought we were friends!

In werewolf, friends are for chewing upon

 

[Thandros]

Another Thing HC why did you decide to change your votes to lynch Clophi?

It would make sense if the Wolves were planning to kill Tamius then having him lynched would slow there progress so HC isn't utterly out the woods yet but almost while that makes Doom bunny look more suspicious as he thought about changing his vote but didn't. It should also be noted that being involved in the Outing of Euro should not lower suspicion as any wolf wants to lower the suspicion against them at every moment so not outing him would make them look like possible targets. The Wolves would also want there suspicion to be as low as possible to reduce the odds of getting caught. Jumping on outings and getting involved in voting for wolves when there almost doomed is the kind of activities you expect wolves to do. Not voting for the same person day after day who then turn out not to be a wolf.

Actually I would put you much higher. Late vote for Randy and Joining in the outing of Euro would on the surface make you seem less suspicious but that is exactly where a wolf wants to be is it not.

 

[Najs]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Why the hell have you killed me, damn b******s! I thought we were friends!

Sorry to break it to you, but since you never voted you would have been subbed anyway.

 

[humancalculator]

This village is being led astray and we are looking in the wrong places if you are still suspicious of me. I suppose that happens when the seer is killed early.....

HC, can you elaborate on the reason why Jens didn't vote for Euro??

Night 0 scan: EUROO7 (Wolf)

Night 1 scan: Me (Villager)

Jens did not tell me that EURO was a wolf until part way through the day, as he had wanted to build a semblance of a justice league. With another villager in our ranks, it would have been safe for one of us to announce that EURO was a wolf and still have another available mouthpiece if the next scan was of a werewolf.

As to why he didn't vote for EURO, my guess was that he didn't want to draw attention to himself, which, unfortunately, happened anyways.

I am almost certain that HC and Kiwi as well as myself are cleared. Could the 2 of you take a look at my analysis (and throw me in as suspect as well of course) and see if you can shoot some holes in it?

Sure thing. I'll look at it later this evening.

Another Thing HC why did you decide to change your votes to lynch Clophi?

Because there was a TIE! with only a little bit of time left before the deadline. TIE!'s are terrible for the village without a justice league when finding out who the last wolves are is just a crap shoot.

In fact, I am starting to be a little bit suspicious of you. You are trying very hard to cast me in a negative light even when I explained why I changed my vote when I changed it. If I were really a quite cutthroat wolf to begin with, do you think that I would have done that? It would have been in my interest to let the village kill off two villagers during the day along with hunting a third. I could have just claimed to be busy at the deadline and not notice the impending train wreck.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

Uhh they were both villagers. So who are the last two wolves. The inly person who had any suspicions who's still around is Humancalculator and unless Euro was using his last minute claim he was a wolf as a foil I doubt he's a wolf.

Vote Doombunny

Reason: Gut feeling.

Doombunny cast perhaps the most important vote on randakar. And it came before the seer was eaten, so it was less likely to be a cunning distancing ploy. If humancalculator is a wolf we've got such a brutal wolfpack that we're screwed anyway. I suggest you turn your attention somewhere more productive.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

I am almost certain that HC and Kiwi as well as myself are cleared. Could the 2 of you take a look at my analysis (and throw me in as suspect as well of course) and see if you can shoot some holes in it?

For the most part I'd agree, although I'm reasonably happy that Doombunny is innocent too. Behaviour wise Thandros strikes me more as a misguided villager than a wolf, especially given randakar tried to cast doubt on him, but it's less certain than the rest of us.

Anyway, it's tie-day tie-day tie-day today. This is when a tie is most beneficial to the village, and most hurtful to the wolves - they can't snipe a win, we have the highest odds of hitting something. I personally think we should go CAWZ and lynch Suirantes and gigau. That would leave us with 3 villagers/2 wolves, and needing to catch a wolf a day; or 4 villagers/1 wolf, with two chance to get the wolf; or winning. A single lynch would mean either 4 villagers/2 wolves, needing to catch a wolf every day; or 5 villagers/1 wolf, with two chances - but in both cases with reduced odds of finding a wolf with more villagers to hide amongst.

Vote gigau

 

[humancalculator]

For the most part I'd agree, although I'm reasonably happy that Doombunny is innocent too. Behaviour wise Thandros strikes me more as a misguided villager than a wolf, especially given randakar tried to cast doubt on him, but it's less certain than the rest of us.

Anyway, it's tie-day tie-day tie-day today. This is when a tie is most beneficial to the village, and most hurtful to the wolves - they can't snipe a win, we have the highest odds of hitting something. I personally think we should go CAWZ and lynch Suirantes and gigau. That would leave us with 3 villagers/2 wolves, and needing to catch a wolf a day; or 4 villagers/1 wolf, with two chance to get the wolf; or winning. A single lynch would mean either 4 villagers/2 wolves, needing to catch a wolf every day; or 5 villagers/1 wolf, with two chances - but in both cases with reduced odds of finding a wolf with more villagers to hide amongst.

Vote gigau

I tend to go against TIE!'s without a seer, but I suppose your logic is decent enough. It will at least narrow down the pool for the remaining villagers if it goes wrong.

VOTE SUIRANTES

@Rendap: I didn't see any holes in your reasoning and tend to agree with it. Of course, You and Capt. Kiwi could always be the last 2 wolves and you have duped an unsuspecting village. Let's go with trying to get a TIE and see what the morning brings....

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

I tend to go against TIE!'s without a seer, but I suppose your logic is decent enough. It will at least narrow down the pool for the remaining villagers if it goes wrong.

Well that's the thing. On this day, and only this day, it can't go any more wrong than lynching one person would. Even if we lynch two villagers we'll be no closer to parity than if we lynched one, and as you say the pool is narrowed down - so it's better for us and worse for the wolves. Sucks for the lynched players that they might miss out on a win, but it's up to them to find better candidates.

Which I am open for discussion on. I picked gigau and suirantes as neither lynched randakar and both missed votes. I'd rather not have players with no evidence on them for the final day(s). But there are other options, say Falc or Thandros.

 

[gigau]

For the most part I'd agree, although I'm reasonably happy that Doombunny is innocent too. Behaviour wise Thandros strikes me more as a misguided villager than a wolf, especially given randakar tried to cast doubt on him, but it's less certain than the rest of us.

Anyway, it's tie-day tie-day tie-day today. This is when a tie is most beneficial to the village, and most hurtful to the wolves - they can't snipe a win, we have the highest odds of hitting something. I personally think we should go CAWZ and lynch Suirantes and gigau. That would leave us with 3 villagers/2 wolves, and needing to catch a wolf a day; or 4 villagers/1 wolf, with two chance to get the wolf; or winning. A single lynch would mean either 4 villagers/2 wolves, needing to catch a wolf every day; or 5 villagers/1 wolf, with two chances - but in both cases with reduced odds of finding a wolf with more villagers to hide amongst.

Vote gigau

And why me ? as i said, i voted for Cloph as i wrongly trusted a post from Thandros.

Plus, as shown above, he is a better suspect... so why not include him in your little tie ? Could it be because Rendap was a little early almost clearing you, and you're trying to protect a packmate ?

 

[gigau]

Which I am open for discussion on. I picked gigau and suirantes as neither lynched randakar and both missed votes. I'd rather not have players with no evidence on them for the final day(s). But there are other options, say Falc or Thandros.

When i logged on, Randy and Euro were virtually lynched, adding my vote to the bandwagons would have been proof of nothing. So i voted on other suspects to try and weed out other possible wolves.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

And why me ? as i said, i voted for Cloph as i wrongly trusted a post from Thandros.

Plus, as shown above, he is a better suspect... so why not include him in your little tie ? Could it be because Rendap was a little early almost clearing you, and you're trying to protect a packmate ?

I've got no reason to think that Falc or Thandros are better or worse suspects than you and Suirantes. But we have less info on you and Suirantes, and if we go into a final day with one or both of you alive it will just make life harder. That's the problem with missed votes and being quiet in a Lite.

 

[gigau]

Well, Thandros did direct us towards lynching Cloph... for me that makes him top of my list... but i guess i'm the only one to think this way.

For my so-called "throwaway" votes, as i already said, i tried to get some informations on other suspects


It really sucks : when, as villager, i talk plenty, i become suspect and am lynched ; hen i'm busy at work and have difficulties logging all day long (except, yes i missed the first deadline and already apologised for it), i become a suspect.


And of course, you have been careful not to answer HC about you possibly being a wolf trying to stir us towards lynching two people at a time. No matter what you say, a tie doesn't feel right as you might be seeking parity.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

Do the math yourself. A tie today doesn't take us any closer to parity than lynching a single person, while at the same time ensuring that it's the village and not the wokves that get's to choose who dies.

Edit: A two way tie. Three way would be disaster, but we have enough people to prevent that. If they actually show up to vote...

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

In light of my edit, and the no show of a lot of players,

Unvote gigau
Vote Suirantes

I'll be slightly surprised if Thandros is a wolf. But at last this way only one more person needs to show up to vote Suirantes for the tie.

 

[Najs]

Votecount, 3h50min until deadline.

(3) Thandros - gigau, Rendap, Suirantes

(2) Suirantes - humancalc, Capt Kiwi
(1) DoomBunny - Thandros


not voted: Falc, DoomBunny