May 1st, 1940
Meeting of the gosho kaigi (five minister conference)
May 1st, 15th year of Showa
„Gentlemen, you’re all aware of the situation in Europe. The utter defeat of France gives us a great opportunity. I suggest that we occupy French-Indochina at once. The new government in France will not be accepted as legitimate by the Allies and as our secret services report that it still holds authority over Indochina it’s only a question of time when the British will invade there. The weakness of the French government and the uncertain situation together with the threat of a British intervention make it mandatory to act swift and ruthless. I suggest presenting the local French administration with an ultimatum demanding immediate transfer of power to appointed Japanese representatives or facing an invasion. Tojo-san, they don’t have a lot of troops there, right?”
Konoe turned towards Tojo, who shuffled a few papers, read some notes and answered then. “According to our latest information, the French garrison amounts two regular divisions of infantry. They can impossibly defend the country with so few soldiers. What about their fleet, Yamamoto-san?”
“Their fleet has suffered immense losses in battles with the Germans and Italians. Both opponents have been ultimately stopped, but the French fleet is no threat for us.” Yamamoto didn’t fear the French fleet. The British East Asia Fleet in Singapore however could interfere with Japanese operations in French-Indochina.
Japanese soldiers with arrested Vietnamese
Konoe was clearly delighted by the fortunate development in Europe. With Germany and Italy now dominating the continent, the British would divert even more troops from East Asia to Europe. “Yoshino-san, do you already know if the resources from French-Indochina will be enough to support our industry?”
“We do only have estimations until now. The rubber plantations and the small oil fields will surely help, but I fear that it won’t be enough. French-Indochina isn’t a rich colony like India or the Dutch East Indies. We will still suffer severe limitations of crucial raw materials.”
Yamamoto could see how Tojo toyed with an idea. He was about to ask him, but Tojo already started. “Well, if we occupy French-Indochina it would also be useful as a stepping-stone for further invasions in East Asia.”
Konoe seemed to disagree. “We haven’t decided yet if we really attack southwards, Tojo-san. You always favoured an expansion into Siberia yourself, didn’t you?”
“Yes, that’s true. But I’ve changed my mind. I think it’s a golden opportunity which presents itself to us here. The European colonies are helpless now with their mother countries under occupation of the Germans. The only real threat to us is the United States.” Yamamoto was surprised. Tojo had always been sceptical towards his warnings of the Americans.
“According to our secret service memorandums they begin to rearm. They are technically advanced and they have a fleet which is very powerful. But they’ll need a year or two to gain full strength. And we don’t want to face them then, right? I think we should use this opportunity to capture French Indochina and then prepare an attack onto the Dutch East Indies and the British possessions.”
Japanese soldiers enter Saigon by bike
“And what about the Americans, General Tojo?”
“Well, we have two options, Hachiro-san. We could try to appease them and hope they don’t interfere when we attack the European colonies. That’s quite risky and perhaps not even viable. Or we could hit them so hard in a sneak attack that they won’t be able to retaliate and can’t interfere. That’s equally risky, but we would be advantaged as we would dictate the action while they could only react. But we don’t have to discuss this now. If we are able to capture French-Indochina, all our plans for a possible southern expansion would have to be reviewed anyway.”
“Anything else in regard to French-Indochina?”
The foreign minister Hachiro Arita looked around and began. “Well, I have another proposal. As you’ll all know we support the government in Siam since 1936. We have send military advisors, sold equipment and helped them to industrialize. They could prove to be useful allies when it comes to a conflict with the United Kingdom. They have fought several small-scale wars with the French about border conflicts. If we give them now what they want, they would surely be grateful and help us control the native population in the area. It would surely be a minor loss for us, while it would be a sure-fire way to improve our relations. And it would show the people in South-East Asia that we treat them better than their former colonial masters. That could be helpful in gathering support among the freedom fighters in other colonies.”
