Chapter 136, 11 Downing Street, 12 July 1941
Oliver Stanley, His Majesty’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, threw down the dusty folder and wearily removed his thick spectacles. His eyes felt strained, worn-out from endless hours spent in seeing the latest economic assessments. They were not hopeful, and Stanley looked out of his generously roomy study (especially when compared to the rather gloomy accommodation in 10 Downing Street) and once again prayed for an economic miracle. He felt very foolish.
His forecasts had been built upon a decent level of trade with Europe. The peace, he had hoped, would see the markets for British goods reopened and exports would (hopefully) flow from the British Isles into a Europe still obsessed with building munitions rather than commercial goods. The Empire would not rest on her laurels; Hankey and Eden had placed massive orders for new equipment whilst the expansion of the RAF, launched so enthusiastically in the 1930s, was continuing steadily (if not spectacularly). The resultant expansion of factories and infrastructure was to the assistance of civilian works: a shipyard that built destroyers could also build freighters. On some occasions it was even easier; Stanley had just approved Government assistance for the production of a passenger variant of the Short Stirling, whilst the truck manufacturers were already selling a number of surplus items to the civilian world, providing what Stanley hoped would be the “accidental windfall” of military expansion: powering up the military would provide, through its expansion of industry, a skilled workforce and capable plant. Riding a tide of Government subsidy and military demand, the future had seemed safe. The much heralded “super factories”, the amalgamations of small, inefficient, local companies into larger groupings was slowly taking place; the first merger, between Hawker and Handley-Page, was gathering pace and the emerging company, Hawker-Handley, would be a powerful concern. Stanley had also noted with approval the rationalisation of designs; superfluous blueprints would be cut and the variety of airframes designed to perform the same function would be trimmed. Stanley read an assessment from Menzies that the Germans had gone to war with hundreds of types of vehicles and engines. Britain would avoid that.
But Stanley had indentified two “prowling predators” to the British recovery. The first, and least predictable, was that the orders would slow down. As Stanley began to limit the subsidies and grants there was a matching hesitancy from the owners and businessmen to take on new employees or upgrade their equipment. The unions, ever truculent and encouraged by their Labour supporters, were “spoiling for a fight” (that was Eden’s description) and would, Stanley feared, protest at any tailing-off of production. They also feared the measures to improve efficiency, which made Stanley dwell upon his second predator: that simple, unavoidable fact that British working practices were just not good enough. Stanley had been horrified on his first visit to the Yorkshire coalfield; the miners, in conditions best described as nightmarish, had been working with picks and other hand tools, whilst the Americans and Germans were already using modern machine drills. He had recently attended the launch of HMS Unicorn, one of the new class of small carriers for Hankey’s increased Royal Navy. Walking around the shipyards, the story was the same everywhere; dangerous, old-fashioned techniques and equipment that the first Captain of HMS Warrior would have recognised. It was yet another dated world, and another battleground should Stanley and the Conservative Government attempt to do anything about it.
Stanley grimaced that those less inclined to support the unions, the ‘hawks’ in the Party, had made it difficult for him to outmanoeuvre the left. By insisting that large scale trade with either side in the war (for they were divided on how to handle Russia) was abhorrent, they prevented him from the Europeans buying the machine tools so necessary for industrial reform. They would have to be made in Britain, further straining Britain’s resources in the short term, though Stanley admitted that this policy aided the Empire in the longer term. He winced at the cost of it all.
Which led him to the trading nightmare. Thankfully, the brief war had made only a pinprick hole in the British merchant fleet. The limited damage had been rectified, and mercifully the Italian war in the Middle East had failed to interrupt trading through the Suez Canal; the tankers had kept sailing. But Stanley feared that massive military expansion, together with the hiatus of industrial reform, was pushing the crucial import v export “see-saw” heavily in favour of imports. Stanley dusted off his jacket and accepted the inevitable: Halifax would have to be briefed, his fears allayed. It would get better, he would be told, but only after the shock of change had been survived.
“Hooton,” Stanley called to an aide. “Could you contact the PM’s PPS? I need to go next door and meet him.”
“Of course, Chancellor.”
Ten minutes later, and Stanley found himself in his neighbour’s study. Stanley was saddened that he and his next-door neighbour had socialised so infrequently. Aside from Cabinet meetings and briefings Halifax had only invited his Chancellor into Number 10 on a handful of occasions. Quietly, the Prime Minister entered and waved his hand, gesturing for Stanley to sit.
“Oliver, it is agreeable to see you this evening,” Halifax said wearily. “I presume that you have wead this morning’s papers?”
“I have, Prime Minister,” Stanley said hesitantly.
Where’s he leading on this, Stanley wondered. He sat back in his chair, cannily allowing Halifax to set the agenda.
“Yes,” Halifax continued. “Most iwwitating. There is gwowing evidence of subversion and plotting.”
“There is widespread unhappiness at the war in Europe,” Stanley said, before offering a judicious “apparently”.
Halifax too sat back, as if trying to gain a new interpretation of his visitor. “What the would be webels, whomever they may be, fail to gwasp, is that an attempt to split the Party would hand victory to Attlee on a plate.”
Stanley grasped the warning, realising that Halifax would play upon the threat of a Labour government, and dump the blame upon the rebels for its coming into power. Stanley had heard of the meeting of the high profile rebels, had noted the problems involved in toppling Halifax, and had deduced that his role could be crucial. They
want to cast me as Warwick, the bloody ‘Kingmaker’, he thought to himself. But Stanley did not particularly want to hand power to a group that would, probably, oppose him on so many things. Eden, he hoped, would keep him as Chancellor; the two men were friends and shared many political opinions. But Stanley feared for the return of Amery, who would probably lobby for a senior cabinet role, and Winston Churchill, who could potentially become either Foreign Secretary (unseating the rabidly anti-Eden Butler) or War and Defence Coordination Secretary in the wake of Eden’s accession to the Premiership. But there were other favours: Bracken, Duff-Cooper, Boothby, all would demand reward. Then there were the likes of Cross, Macmillan, Hankey, where support and goodwill would be highly desirable. Stanley saw this and at that moment, in the Prime Ministerial study, decided that he would forge his own path. He would support Halifax, but at the cost of a hardening of British resolve and a weakening of the influence of the small coterie of Prime Ministerial advisors.
They are wrong to call me Warwick, he thought.
I am a Stanley, and Bosworth will happen as I wish it. He would not yet turn upon their weakened leader, though he knew that it amounted to little more than a “stay of execution”. But the stability of the Party, and the British people, would be preserved.
“That may be the case, Prime Minister, but we have to listen to all of the voices within our party. With Leo gone they’ve become outcasts! You need to listen to them, take a few of them into the fold, act upon their more lucid arguments.”
“Such as your economic pwoposals, the continuing of hard times to pwepare us for the future,” Halifax said tartly, causing Stanley to smile.
He’s down, but he’s not out. I’ve won the point though, he realised.
“And the international situation,” he said, risking all for further concessions.
Halifax smiled sadly. “There, you may be cowwect. Whatever emerges fwom these turbulent days will be dominated by either Amewcia, Germany, or the Soviets,” Stanley smiled at Halifax’s attempt to minimise his speech impediment: there was no murdered “wussians” at which Stanley could chuckle.
“And the Empire, Prime Minister.”
“I pway so, Oliver, I pway so. Would you and your wife, ah...”
“Maureen, Prime Minister,” Stanley offered.
“A ha. Would you care to dine with Lady Halifax and I this evening?”
Stanley nodded, realising that he was victorious. Things were changing.
[Game Effect] – Stanley keeps Halifax in power, using his enhanced position to get Halifax’s support for his continued economic reforms.
The decline of the British economy had been raised before in this and other AARs. The slowing down of British growth and the increasing dominance of markets and outproduction by other nations is well known, but deserves to be examined. Whilst the struggle to defeat Germany emasculated the economy and allowed far more flexible economies to dominate, the seeds of British weakness were already sown. For an evocative description of these woes I commend to you Andrew Marr’s excellent
"A History of Modern Britain”, and I agree with his assessment that the problems of the ‘70s were created in the ‘30s. Stanley has a battle on his hands, though he has already been partially successful in that the mergers and amalgamations necessary for the strengthening of British firms is going through. The unions will be truculent to anything that threatens employment though as imports from Europe start to fall (which will please Stanley and Halifax) goods will be increasingly home-made. Things will be tough in the short term, but in the long term Britain should be secure.
Stanley is also correct in his observations on German military problems in Barbarossa. The comparison between the Soviets, who massively rationalised weapons and equipment to just a few trusted types, and the Germans and their endless variety, is a simple and oft overlooked factor. Stanley will use this rationalisation principle where he can, and it suits me an HOI player/writer as it explains the presence of only one type of fighter, interceptor, tactical bomber etc. So the Chancellor’s planning is an AAR writer’s gift!
So Halifax clings on, in a masterclass in political positioning from Oliver Stanley. One of history’s “nearly men” he has not often graced the story as I have concentrated on military and political affairs. He was a well regarded, capable politician, though lacking any firm basis upon which to portray his reaction to the “hawks’” attempt to remove Halifax I’ve succumbed to my 15th century tales and have had him act as the third party. He was never a firm friend of either Amery or Bracken, and I suspect that he would show a bit of guile and avoid a Tory civil war (I don’t think that he would be confident that the coup would be painless). Halifax is almost (!) fatally weakened; the core appeasers aren’t sufficient to prevent his being removed and survival has come at a price. Halifax’s every action will be massively scrutinised, not just by the rebels but by a Chancellor of the Exchequer ever capable of fatally weakening the Prime Minister. British observers may find parallels with our current premier, but I actually see Halifax as a John Major type: carefully selected by his predecessor, comes to power with ease and then wins an election as much through luck and opposition weakness than ability, desperately trying to hold the Party together. Both were inherently charming men who somehow failed to convey their personalities: Major was ridiculed as the “grey man” and Halifax is seen as a stuffy, dour leader. Major failed to stem the tide of support for a renewed Labour Party with an ambitious manifesto, and perhaps Halifax will face a similar threat as Attlee’s team recover from their 1940 election defeat.
El Pip: I’ve tried to show here that the centre of the Party pragmatically support Halifax largely through economic factors.
Trekaddict: I couldn’t possibly comment – but it gets interesting...
Kurt_Steiner:
Nathan Madien: Oh, Paulus has an adventure...
Bafflegab: I think that a united Labour Party would do well – the Tories are just so divided.
TheExecuter: You’re quite probably right – taken with the comment above I think that the election (in 44/45!) seems the best chance of getting Lord H out...
Sir Humphrey: I’m not sure that Stanley would have joined the coup at this stage – he has much more to lose when compared to the other plotters. But we now have this bizarre situation where Stanley is bullying Halifax, who is bullying Eden, who is plotting to use Stanley to bring down Halifax. I feel a headache coming on...
DonnieBaseball: I think that we could – unless Stanley is brilliant (I think he would merely be good) the Labour Party will pick up votes.
MITSGS John: India update soon (well, a Far East one which is not quite the same thing!). It’s still a bit early for Ironside as he would have to endure a massive round of “joining calls” upon politicians and the King etc.
Nathan Madien: Nooooo!
Sir Humphrey: It would take a significant ‘swing’ in Cabinet opinion, which I cannot see happening (at present).
El Pip:
MITSGS John: Any British aid would be ‘cash and carry’ – it would go some way to convincing the waverers.
Sir Humphrey: Oh please God no...
MITSGS John: The Neutrality Acts are still in force – the US is not particularly pro anybody at the mo.