Werewolf CXII: Refugees

[reis91]

Only if they don't like it.

 

[OrangeYoshi]

This is why you need to do a outing if you can to get a JL started. Here the JL lost a GA when they could have lynched a wolf instead.

Freeman didn't tell me he had scanned Randy until the next day. Presumably he was waiting to see if "my pack" hunted him that night.

 

[johho888]

The GM AAR part 5 - Auf wiedersehen, die Gelbe

Day 6 and Night 6
Village lynched Slinky the werewolf
Seer scanned Kaetje the werewolf
GA Paen was set to protect EURO the cursed villager but got eaten himself
Lover Najs kept sleeping with his own wolf master drxav
Lover Vain slept with jacob the SA villager
trespoe priestly scanned Rysz the SA cultist who again didn't see anything
Napoleon Sorcery scanned OY the SA villager who only saw that a sorcery powered player scanned him
Die Rote ate Paendrag the GA

Kingepyon came out of that voting smelling like roses while drxav looked a lot more shabby. But maybe that is just from a GM point of view?

Not so much muahaha for Rysz now. I had completely forgotten about that last priestly scan...

Alright hunt targets today: Najs backup athalcor, xenomorph

Die Rote tries to hunt their own cultist who is sleeping with one of them and if that order had went through they had actually managed to eat two of their own pack in one night. Would have made it really hard to figure out the hunt pattern for the village and probably caused die Gelbe to think there was a third pack.

Riiight najs is your cultist. There's too many of them to remember. Though, this is also why I like sending out hunt orders really early, lol.

Hunt Paendrag in place of najs. Backups stay the same.

Bah, I was so looking forward to writing that update. And the AAR part about this.

Day 7 and Night 7
randakar and Rysz got outed
Village lynched randakar the werewolf, Rysz vote sniped himself another day
randakar brutalized tamius23 the villager and JL spokesperson
Seer forgot to scan
Lover Najs stayed home so as not to block himself while scanning
Lover Vain slept with Kaetje the last werewolf of die Gelbe.
Najs and Rysz both tried to Sorcery scan. Rysz got through and scanned joebthegreat the unclaimed apprentice and saw him for what he was.
Die Gelbe were set to eat snoopdogg2 the witness but Kaetje got distracted by lover boy Vain and forgot to hunt

Die Gelbe are goners now, Kaetje will probably be outed tomorrow and that's that. In a way that is good for the baddies since they have taken so much punishment that focusing on only one pack might bring them back into the game. I hope die Gelbe will have time to hand over their last cultist and their scan list.

I wonder what die Rote will make of joeb? He is actually not a problem until the have hunted the seer so they should just leave him but maybe they will hunt him. Time will tell.

It would have been better for the game balance if the witness had gotten eaten here but nice impact for the right side there by the goodie lover.

see Randakar's comment about the cultists. Sorry to put you in a situation where people immediately blame the GM, ofcourse I am still in contact with my pack, but I need this bluff

No worries. Although considering your pack sent a hunt order yesterday for one of their own cultists - they changed it later - at least I did belive you.

At least AVN tried to make me see reason; though I am guessing he has a reason for trusting Sedracus' claims.

Scan Rysz. Of course, if he is completely cleared, I doubt the wolves will let him live for long.

I had asked trespoe to scan Rysz and to publish the result in the thread.
This will hopefully clear completely Rysz so that the seer can contact him to out the wolves he has scanned.

Hopefully we get some action in the game now.

Yeah, me too. Rysz is an excellent choice, given that Sedracus claims to have seerish-powers cleared him. Especially because it will make it a little easier for me to talk with him about the game if he gets cleared that way.

You'll be sorry when the clever wolf strikes.

No, you will be sorry when the clever wolf strikes.

Sorry Johho, that I keep flailing around like this but I've been looking at the thread for our would-be seer to see who posted at the correct timestamps and I've noticed that the dump tamius made has the following timestamp: 31-08-2011 13:24
The timestamp on his post is: 31-08-2011 14:25
That gives me the offset: +1 hour
Looking at posts around 2:32 and 5:12, I don't find much around 5:12. Cakravarti is the first person to post after Trespoe's announcement and that is 30 minutes later.

At 2:32, though, there are two candidates: XenomorphII at 2:26, and snoopdogg at 2:42.
Now, this is quite a bit after the deadline. You'd think the Seer would send this PM as soon as he reads his scan result.
Xeno has posted a ton before that time since the deadline has passed. He doesn't really fit the profile.

Snoopdogg, however .. that is his first post since the update. I know he subbed someone but it's the best lead I have.

<stuff in Dutch>

I'm sorry, I won't be able to sub should I die today. I know too much, it seems.

That is correct.

Day 8 and Night 8
Village lynched Kaetje the werewolf and Rysz the outed cultist lives yet another day
Seer scanned joethegreat the apprentice
Lover Najs went back to his favorite bed at his wolf master's
Lover Vain slept with walrus the cultist
Kaetje was set to Sorcery scan Xeno the SA villager but got lynched
Die Rote turned Cakravati the cursed villager

The baddies needed that cursed to get back into the match!

WOOHOO!!!!

I thought you'd like it...

Of course, either Rysz or trespoe have told AVN (AVN is the one that told trespoe to scan Rysz) that they think I'm a wolf. And now I have AVN believing that I'm the seer. And I'm not even sure whether or not I think AVN is a goodie or a baddie...

This game is so confusing right now.

Figured I'd send you the two most intriguing PMs so far today. For the lulz. I've told theFreeman to scan joeb. I'm praying joeb just isn't an SA baddie.

You seriously want to scan joeb before you can't scan anymore. He can help you fry that fish, even when you're dead.

Ah bollocks, if by now you don't understand that joeb is an UNCLAIMED APPRENTICE, you aren't worth scanning him

Hi dutchie,

it appears you are a likely cultist connected with the former wolf Randakar. Is that correct? If so, I might be able to get you in contact with a replacement pack.

Grtz, Rysz

Emphasis on replacement.
This means the yellow pack is dead and that probably one red wolf is remaining.
We need to out that wolf today and lynch him.

If the packs are both consisting from 3 wolves and 4 cultists, something I consider possible we can/will win tonight.

What!? Just what!?

Why did Rysz the cultist tell a goodie who the last apprentice is!? And why does AVN tell OY he is a baddie when he is not?

Gotta say... possibly -the- best game of WW I've ever played in.

Glad you like it.

Of course you ending up as a behind the curtain JL coordinator probably colors your view of it.

Well... yes. And that the only known baddie believes I'm the sorc (and also now has confirmation of that "fact"), that I've been outed in the thread as being the seer, that I've really do have everyone believing I'm the seer, and that there's just so much insanity because of the traits.

Hm, I think I can see where all the confusion is coming from, mr I am the seer/sorcerer/villager...

 

[Vainglory]

Hooray, I did something useful for the village! Here I was wondering if I'd been targeted for a hunt.

 

[OrangeYoshi]

Hm, I think I can see where all the confusion is coming from, mr I am the seer/sorcerer/villager...

Hehe. I only had 139 posts in the thread. I had almost double that many PMs.

 

[johho888]

The GM AAR part 6 - Still confused

Day 9 and Night 9
Village lynched Rysz the cultist
Seer scanned walrus the cultist
Lover Najs kept sleeping with his own wolf master drxav
Lover Vain slept with Rendap the villager
drxav tried to Sorcery scan jacob the SA villager but was blocked by his faithful groupie :wub:
Die Rote attacked Davisx3m the cursed hunter who shot Kingepyon before getting turned

The AVN-trespoe-Sedracus PM circle is trying to figure things out.

I don't know if you include OY in these messages or not, but I am sending you more stuff to digest. It is kinda long. (the forum is making me break it into 2 messages!)

An observation, first: All wolves that have died so far have had sorcery powers. As far as I have noticed, Johho hasn’t put forward the affiliation of a dead cultist. I wonder if all the cultists were free and the wolves needed to scan for them. In fact, the cultists also had sorcery powers. Of the yellow pack, there was a brutal, a plotting, and two regular wolves. So far in the red pack, there is a dead plotter and plain wolf, so I would expect a brutal and a plain wolf left.

Day 4 & 6 analysis. These are really the only two days of good analysis as we are looking at the red pack.

First the cultists were in contact with one wolfmaster at the start of the game. Also the wolfmaster did know the name of that cultist. However if there is one pack left then all cultists count for parity.

We still need to find 2 red wolves.

First of all thanks for the detailed analysis you have made IMO it's very useful.

The JL, if we could use that name at the moment consists of OY, Sedracus, you and I.
I'm not sure if we should name it a JL, because it was not created by the seer, but more or less it was done by me.
And more importantly Sedracus, you and I are most likely not scanned by the seer.
That makes the game quite exciting ...

I trust that you are a villager, just as I am. Maybe not for 100%, but 95% I'm prepared to give you.
Your analysis was good. I couldn't find mistakes in it, after checking it for a few hours today. And IMO baddies aren't able to give good analysis ...

OY is the seer. I have no doubts about that. Unfortunately my relation with him is difficult. He doesn't trust me completely. Therefore I still don't have his complete scan list.

Finally Sedracus. I have been in contact with him for quite some time now. But I don't trust him.
He is not helping with analysis and he's against running up EUROO7. Instead he proposed to run up walrus and davisx3m tomorrow. Because OY supports him on this I will propose that run up tomorrow.

He also knows that OY is the seer, so he has important information. And I need to stay friendly with him. If he's indeed a cultist (what I fear) then my chances to survive a little bit longer are bigger when I keep staying in contact with him.

I hope I didn't create too much of a mess ...

But this game is exciting ...

Day 10 and Night 10
Village lynched Xeno the SA villager
Seer tried to scan EURO but was blocked by the goodie lover (who appearently isn't in the JL)
Lover Najs stayed home
Lover Vain slept with theFreeman the seer
snoopdogg2 the witness saw drxav the wolf attacking jacob
Die Rote ate jacob the SA villager

On the one night when sleeping with his master would have helped the master Najs the groupie stayed home...
OTOH goodie lover made a mess for the goodies so maybe that is about equal fail?

Najs the cultist is not let in on the pack size (3 not 1 at this moment)

It appears as though only drxav is left as a wolf. Therefore I will no longer use my lover ability on him, as it would prevent hunts. Instead, I will Do nothing!

"The sorcerer" is fishing for information from the witnessed and outed wolf

Fine, what are you scan lists, and did you claim joeb as your apprentice?

Beyond getting Joeb as an apprentice from Rysz, I've had the crappiest luck with scans. The only one that aren't dead are AVN and trespoe, and they came back as villagers.

So are you a wolf or a cultist?

So you confirm joeb is your apprentice. Does he count towards parity?

Anyways I cannot disclose that much information at the moment. We need to sort out our pack as people aren't responding to PMs and taking the actions needed to ensure we win.

There not many things you need to know about the pack but I will provide you with a list of people that ought to be scanned. Each day I'll tell you who will be hunted so you don't scan a dead guy.

Here's the list:
snoopdogg
Rockingluke
Rendap
Vainglory

Just know that the day of our victory is near.

Alright. Am I looking for the seer and priest, or cultists?

Joeb does count towards parity. With him, how close are we?

Day 11 and Night 11
Village lynched drxav the brutal werewolf
drxav brutalized snoopdogg2 the witness
Seer scanned EURO the cursed villager
Lover Najs stayed home
Lover Vain had a wake with snoopdogg2's cold dead corpse, at least we hope that is what he had
Najs Sorcery scanned OY the SA villager who saw it was a Sorcery scan but not by whom
Die Rote ate Rendap the villager

I'm getting bored. I'd like to use my witness ability tonight.

You saw one of jacob-Lundgren's attackers. You saw drxav the werewolf.

Heads up for the JL which is still stubbornly refusing to scan the not-wolf snoopdogg. I plan to do the outing later, and only if necessary. I'd like for you to advocate running up drxav with one other choice today.

You can do the outing yourself.
drxav only needs to get a top 3 spot.
I will leaderlynch him if he doesn't get enough votes to get him lynched by the village.

No, we can't do that. All the baddies think I'm the sorc. We can't break that illusion. snoop has to do the witness outing, and then you leader lynch him if he doesn't get enough votes. I just got a list that will seriously cut down on the number of possible wolves and hopefully end this game in a goodie victory instead of the baddie victory they seem so sure of.

I'm confused now, after receiving this message,
Please advise.

My thought is OY is the seer. Consider:

1) sbr was seer's apprentice. which means there is a seer. If the JL has sort of come forth and the seer hasn't been in touch with anyone by now, the seer is dumb.
2) all the dead baddies have sorc powers. Which means if there was a sorcerer, there would be a lot of sorcery abilities.
3) there are also some priest abilities, but no priest backup has come forth.
4) no one died has had seerish powers, yet.

I think OY started with sbr as backup and EL started alone because of all the scanning. There isn't a sorcerer with all the sorcery powers running around. Johho wouldn't stack the deck too far against the village.

What I find more interesting is the comments about why the baddies think they have this game. Either we are way off on the analysis and they are going to use it against us, there are more baddies than we think (the no kills?) or more cultists, or even a possible 3rd pack (though very, very doubtful at this late stage.)

I think there may be a turned, some cultists, and whoever it is must be missing in the analysis. I will look back through and see what drxav and King have done.

I'm confident that drxav is still under the impression I am the sorc, although that might've been ruined a bit by AVN's screwed up outing. He went directly against what I told him to do.

Which means that list of people under "everything else" is where we find our wolves. We need to run through these as quickly as possible. Lynch one, scan another.

With enemies like this, who needs friends?

I've mistakenly erased my role PM, am I brutal?

Indeed you are. You also have sorcery powers.

Other than Najs who else in our pack can scan? If he is the only one then I suggest he scan OrangeYoshi to confirm that he is the Sorceror.

Okay then. Tonight I will

Scan OrangeYoshi
Backup Athalcor

Is that fine with you lot?

OrangeYoshi looks like a villager to you, ie he is no cultist, priest, seer or any type of apprentice (claimed or unclaimed).

Really? Why Sorcery scan someone you suspect of being a sorcerer? That scan can't detect a sorcerer. Maybe you should read the rules before using your traits? If you really wanted to verify OY you should have scanned joeb because any type of apprentice is detectable.

You were scanned again tonight. This time by some unknown with Sorcery powers.

Frick.

Please inform me whats going on as quickly as you can!

I was scanned by someone with sorcerer powers last night. That means the baddies now know I'm not the sorc. That's bad, because they know I've been lying to them. On the other hand, they know I'm not a seer. Which means they probably won't hunt me because they need to kill the seer, not just some person who may or may not be in the JL.

Also, they don't know that I know they've scanned me.

Et tu, Brute? That scan can't detect a sorcerer. Maybe you should read the rules before freaking out?

 

[Vainglory]

"Lover Vain had a wake with snoopdogg2's cold dead corpse, at least we hope that is what he had"

Even in death you aren't safe from me!

 

[OrangeYoshi]

Et tu, Brute? That scan can't detect a sorcerer. Maybe you should read the rules before freaking out?

Nono. See, I chose to impersonate the sorc specifically because a sorc and sorc powers can't detect me. I freaked out because being scanned at that time meant they didn't trust me, and I was confident I was going to be tossed out of the pack, possibly "outed" by someone getting in contact with AVN or something.

So, it wasn't that I knew they knew my real role, but the mere fact that a baddie was scanning me while I was talking to drxav. I mean seriously... I had expected them to figure out I wasn't a sorc sooner or later. But right then would've been a -really- bad time because I hadn't provided AVN with a wolf yet. He would've been easy to turn against me, and he wouldn't have believed theFreeman if he tried to contact AVN after my death.

 

[johho888]

The GM AAR part 7 - The end is nigh

Day 12 and Night 12
Village lynched Athalcor the blessed villager
Seer tried to scan Najs the cultist but instead got to know him intimately
Lover Najs slept with the seer
Lover Vain slept with TNT the villager
Die Rote attacked TNT the 3rd in command villager and got Lover Vain as a bonus

Lover Vain should have kept picking new lovers. Going back to someone a second time always spells disaster, didn't he know that?

Now it is theoretically impossible for the goodies to win if the baddies ensure not both wolves gets lynched tomorrow and then eat AVN the leader. In this case humancalculator gets promoted to leader and can lynch a goodie the next day and with a hunt parity should be reached. I feel for the goodies who have played such a good game.

Sorry, but I do not have a scan left. I used it on the_hdk at the behest of randakar very early in the game and he looked like a normal villager. His strategy was to have everyone use their scans at once on a huge list of people, but I don't think that any positive results came of his plan.

Also, randakar was in contact with AVN, and that is why he died IMO.

Is there a baddie i should swear allegiance to? I was originally Napoleon XIX's cultist, and i was drxav's until he died.

Now, back to trying to stay alive until the end and hoping the wolves can pull out a win.

Cakravarti is our resident wolf master now, Davisx3m is also a turned wolf but isn't around much it seems.

Now, this is what I suggest. Walrus scans Vainglory tonight. Our hunt takes out TNT while I use my lover ability on theFreeman. That means we should either kill the seer, scan the seer or hopefully at least stall the seer. If that fails I have no idea who might be the seer since I haven't been the most active player in this game.

I'd rather see that Freeman wasn't the backup in that case, since if he happens to die I will die along with him.

Alright then new hunt orders:

1) Trinitroluenen 2) Rockingluke 3) Trespoe

Ok, time for an update.

Yesterday OY screwed up terribly. He decided to pretend being a sorcerer and got in contact with drxav.
He also did give the name of his apprentice "joeb" to the baddies. Of course he didn't get names of wolves but he did get a small list of people to scan.

Of course he was scanned last night, which OY discovered because he's SA.

I have discussed the whole situation in detail with trespoe and we think the following persons are the primary candidates for being a wolf :

Cakravati
Davisx3m
Najs
Trinitrotoluen
Boris ze Spider
TheFreeman
Althalcor

We have excluded the following persons for the following reasons.
EUROO7 scanned as villager
Orange Yoshi seer
Walrus scanned on night 8, could theoretically be a possibility, but smaller chance than the list of 7
Joeb scanned and likely the seer's apprentice
trespoe. Did know the name of the seer for several turns
AVN. Did know the name of the seer for several turns
Sedracus. Did know the name of the seer for several turns
Rockingluke. The baddies wanted him scanned by OY
Vainglory. The baddies wanted him scanned by OY
Humancalculator. Suspicious, but unlikely as a wolf.

The strategy trespoe and I like to follow we have described in the thread. I hope we will get cooperation from the village.

I expect that tonight OY will be hunted and tomorrow will be joeb's turn. After that I guess the wolves go after me.
In that case I hope you will lead the village to victory.

FYI
And to be honest I believe the chances for the village to win this game are rather small.

that is what the baddies think too...

GM:

If the following was true shouldnt the pack have reached parity:

2 wolves + 3 cultists (Najs + HC + walrus) + 1 sorceror (OY) + 1 Sorceror's Apprentice (joeb)=7

Could you have made a mistake? Or are some of my assumptions wrong?

If that was true then yes, you would have reached parity already. So yes, something in the above assumption is wrong.

Day 13 and Night 13
Village lynched Najs the cultist
Seer scanned Cakravati the werewolf
Die Rote attacked and turned EURO the cursed villager

OK, the baddies haven't gotten it yet but hitting a newly scanned cursed they can now even win by hitting the last cursed or just have one goodie throw his vote the wrong way. A baddie victory for sure.

I wonder if Najs had told the truth about his affir with the seer if things had gone differently?

Can you please tell us with who you did sleep in the last 5 nights ?

I believe that was drxav. I set an order to sleep with him a few nights ago and never bothered to do anything with it.
Why? He seemed like an unlikely hunt target and I haven't had time to do anything intelligent with my trait.

I think he's lying. Have we found the last wolf ?

He's lying through his teeth. Has to be. I've never seen Johho put any amount of lovers in a game other than 2, and the other lover slept with me again last night. Run him up. At least we'll get a baddie, even if it might just be a cultist. The double kill last night sped parity up by an entire day unless we get another baddie.

I was and I still am completely puzzled by the fact that the seer wasn't hunted yesterday.

The only possibility I can think of is that OY was scanned by Najs and that Najs decided to obstruct further scans of OY by visiting him. (OY's scan of last night failed because a lover was visiting him and that lover wasn't Vainglory, because he visited TNT).

Of course there can be 3 lovers in this game, but I consider that unlikely.

The conclusions :
1) Najs is a lover-cultist
2) There are 2 lovers in this game. One goodie and one baddie, what I don't consider unlikely for a johho-game.
3) The baddies are badly organised. This is confirmed by Rysz's statement that he didn't have contact with his pack and drxav's statement in his PM exchange with OY, that he had difficulties contacting the other baddies.

Because Najs can still obstruct the seer's scans I think it's a good thing to get him lynched even if he isn't the last wolf.

Of course we still have the question why the baddies didn't hunt OY.
OY's sorceror's play didn't make any sense at all. Or are the baddies (mainly the last wolf) desperately hoping they will reach parity with him and his apprentice ?

Or do they not consider the possibility that he's the seer ?

Just thinking OY isn't stupid enough to do this as a seer ?

Questions, many questions ....

BTW Najs informed me at 21.44 that he was a lover.
I said in the thread at 21.37 that he was the JL's target for today.

I will agree with the questions. I wonder if Najs was alone and is trying to make life difficult for the village. I also agree he needs to go.

I am not surprised if there are two lovers in this game.

I know you want Najs gone, but I am testing the waters. If they think OY is the seer would they not try and Lynch him, and maybe get the goodies who vote him hung for a bad vote? Currently OY, Najs, and Davis have two votes each.

I will switch to Najs in the morning, but I want to see who comes out of the woodwork first. Currently Humancalc and Boris have voted OY.

EDIT: Sedracus has limited his pm limit. I am also not sending to OY since you didn't include him.

1) EUROO7 2) Boris Ze Spider 3) Sedracus

EUROO7 was cursed and is now a werewolf of die Rote pack.

The pack now consists of Cakravati, Davisx3m and EUROO7.

All right, you idiots. Why did you hunt me? Drxav told you not to do it, yet you still do it?

Anyway, let's get things straight. You two are probably going to be lynched. AVN has too much power, and I will remain publicly on his side. I've been seer cleared, so I'm the only good thing this pack has left.

Tell me, who exactly is on our side. I want cultist and sorc names. Are we the only pack? etc. Tell me everything.

Hunt AVN

that would be the correct choice but how would he know?

OrangeYoshi the sorc is officially part of the pack, btw, if he wasn't already.

You don't have to tell me. I count every baddie for parity regardless if they are in contact or not.

*facepalm* And to think they will likely claim victory even when giving away the whole pack to the JL!

I have to say... I will never, ever again underestimate the power of the SA trait.

Just a little update on where the JL is:

I was given a codeword by Najs for when a packmate of his gets in contact with me today.

I told EURO -yesterday- that I was the sorc and thought he was a cultist. So today when he got the cursed PM, he flat-out told me that the other wolves were Cak and Davis. That fits perfectly with the list I had already put together, and they will all be lynched.

On the surface, this may have been the most boring game ever. But behind the scenes, I've never had so much activity.

Day 14 and Night 14
Village lynched Cakravati the werewolf
Seer was set to scan Davis but got eaten
Die Rote ate theFreeman the seer

Brothers of the pack I believe that the Freeman is the seer based on AVNs comments to EUROO about Najs blocking the seer, because the night before last Najs slept with The Freeman. Im not entirely sure about HumanCalculator being the spy. I will die tonight and you can decide what to do with HC tomorrow. I suggest not revealing to him or Yoshi about EUROO's defection. I suggest Davis contact walrus and have him contact OY about the scan list and whether he scanned his apprentice last night. OY and joeb shouldnt know about EUROO either. Let walrus and then Davis be their point of contact until we know for sure who the leak is. If we find out HC is the leak for sure then we can use him by feeding him false info as well.

Anyway the code word to contact OY is either "Goobledygook" or "ggpack". Najs wasnt clear on which one.

I am allowed to tell you the truth, apparently.
OrangeYoshi is 100% guaranteed not to be a wolf.
Cakravarti is 100% guaranteed to be a wolf.

I am not the seer. I am the seer's close friend and apprentice. Now trust OrangeYoshi. He has not steered you wrong yet, we have reduced the list of suspects to four, out of which we are nearly 100% certain three of them are wolves. You have been crucial to our efforts so far, and we only ask that you not stray in this final hour.

Do not be paranoid. The JL is not infiltrated. OrangeYoshi may be mad, but he is a mad genius.

Panicking or acting like that can sometimes reveal some interesting results.
Now we have a confirmation that joeb is the seer's apprentice. And joeb told you that he was scanned night 9.
OY did give me the scan result of joeb on day 10. So that information is consistent. However it's still possible that OY isn't the seer, but instead the mouthpiece of the seer.

Cakravarti will be lynched today. I will out him if necessary, but from OY's PM I did understand that he wanted to do that himself. I'll give him time to do that till 3 hours before deadline.

I prefer not to use my leadertrait today, unless necessary to save myself. (I expect the 4th in command to be a baddie).

Now the really strange part in both joeb's and OY's posts.
They both claim that there are 3 wolves left. This is in conflict with our theory that there is only one wolf (an original cursed villager) left. Maybe after last night's no-kill two.
Are we wrong regarding the original set-up ? And what's the set-up then.
This is something to think about.

I don't want to rely on OY's and joeb's information only. I will do my own research and investigations.

OK, one final thing. I'm intentionally not sending this information to Sedracus. He didn't answer any of the PM's I sent him this morning although he has read them.

If he's turned I don't want to give him more information than he already has.

Possibility about Sedracus being turned. I would have actually expected them to hunt either OY or yourself, They can't take the chances of you leaderlynching another baddie if they can get the votes there. He also hasn't given any indication about JL in the thread.

I am hoping it was a bless hit. Probably OY since sbr was also blessed.

Not sure what to make about the 3 wolves thing, however. That would mean a very unbalanced setup since every no hunt night has been accounted for (mostly) except for last night and the weaker pack didn't have the traits to counter it. Unless they had cultists but that is still an inferior setup to one pack. There could be one more wolf, not two.

Also, since no one has claimed to be a doctor, and they have had ample opportunity by now to come forward, I would suspect that we started with two GA's and no doc. Unless he is very stupid or new. (Rock could fit the bill because he is new and has been absent the last few days.)

Day 15 and Night 15
Village lynched Davis the werewolf
Seer scanned OY the SA villager
The last of Die Rote ate himself

I think the baddies just felt they didn't deserve the victory. Otherwise the below quote is a reminder to never underestimate the JL paranoia and never ever surrender.

So now that I've calmed you guys down, prepare to be riled up.

OrangeYoshi was spiritually attuned, and scanned on night 3.

There have been multiple opportunities for him to be turned. The death of the seer is never a good sign. That he has yet to be hunted is not a good sign either.

I had asked theFreeman to scan OrangeYoshi to re clear him for some time. This never happened.

---

I have two options:

OrangeYoshi is telling me the truth: In this case, EUROO7 and Davisx3m are the last wolves and we have won this game.

OrangeYoshi is lying to me: In this case, he is a wolf.

Neither of these options include you two as baddies. Maybe you are, and the JL has always been a farce. I think it's more likely that you two can be trusted in this situation.

If I die tonight, unable to scan OrangeYoshi and clear him, and EUROO7 or Davisx3m are lynched and found to be villagers. If all that happens, then I want you to lynch OrangeYoshi.

OY being theFreeman's mouthpiece makes sense for all the inconsistencies in his story, so far. in fact, AVN, Sedracus, and I thought you may be the real seer.

But how does he know that davis and euro are wolves? When were they scanned? He seems so determined that they are it makes no sense. Yesterday, he said there was a third lover because he had no scan. Then he came out and said these three are wolves. Were there any scans that Freeman did that he didn't reveal to anyone?

I had pictured OY or AVN as hunted earlier (honestly, the baddies cannot afford to have the vote close and then one of them leaderlynched, especially if another baddie is 4th leader.) and OY had been setting himself up as the seer. On the flip side, OY sorcery scanned means they knew he wasn't and were looking for someone else to kill.

If you die tonight, then our destiny is clear. I will follow OY today and see what happens. If a baddie is killed today (preferably davis, but euro isn't a bad option) then we know.

OrangeYoshi has been pretending to be the sorcerer. He was contacted by Rysz, who discovered I was an unclaimed apprentice, and I was then made OrangeYoshi's "sorcerer apprentice" in the eyes of the baddies. I am the seer now, but as far as they knew, I was turned into a baddie. I went along with OrangeYoshi's scheme, simply because the baddies already knew I was an apprentice, so my only hope for survival was to convince them I was a baddie.

Apparently EUROO7 and OrangeYoshi have been talking for a while, and EUROO7 told OrangeYoshi everything. Supposedly EUROO7 was turned with the most recent no-kill night. The wolves appear to still trust OrangeYoshi.

So either OrangeYoshi is lying to me about EUROO7, or else he is telling the truth. I think EUROO7 would be a better lynch to determine if OrangeYoshi is lying, as EUROO7 might be lying about Davisx3m.

I must repeat my final request, with a slight alteration:

Either OrangeYoshi is a wolf, or else EUROO7 is. If one of them is found innocent, the other is guilty.

And now "the idiot" has to give his opinion. I agree that either OY or EUROO7 is likely a wolf. But I don't like 50% bets. I like the odds to be higher. Two days ago OY gave us 5 names, Najs, Cak, davis, hc and walrus.
Since then we have lynched two of them and they were a cultist and a wolf. I expected the others to be cultists too.

Yesterday shortly after the update OY gave me inconsistent information. Suddenly he said that there were 3 wolves left (Cak, EURO and Davis) and that EURO was turned. How was he able to discover that in such a short time?
BTW I don't believe there are still two wolves left, it's inconsistent with the set-up we have in mind for a long time already.

I don't believe we can wait for the scan. Both EURO and OY know the name of the new seer, and if one of them is the wolf (which seems likely) then joeb will be hunted tonight.

I'm leaning towards OY being the wolf, but he, this is just the opinion of "an idiot".

Stop being an idiot then. Idiot.

I called you that because I feared you were going to try and save Cakravarti, what with all your PMing yesterday. Nothing personal, idiot.

It was never my choice to be known as an apprentice to the baddies. Hell, they knew before I knew.

EUROO7 was on OrangeYoshi's list of suspects from as long as I have been in the JL. His suspecting of EUROO7 is not inconsistent with anything he told me or theFreeman. There being three wolves is not inconsistent with the number of no-kill nights we have seen recently. EUROO7 being the target of the most recent hunt is not inconsistent with his outspoken actions.

Both EUROO7 and OrangeYoshi are very possible wolves. If OrangeYoshi is a wolf, I will be hunted anyway. If EUROO7 is a wolf I may still have a chance (he has my name as a sorc, not as a seer).

In either case we should kill OrangeYoshi AND EUROO7. That will net us a wolf with a 100% guarantee.

And to sum this game up I think this says it all really:

OrangeYoshi may be mad, but he is a mad genius.

 

[joebthegreat]

Can I sum up the paranoia?

How in the world was I supposed to suspect that an active JL mouthpiece, known to the wolves as a sorc, and at the same time in a game that so obviously doesn't have a sorc, doesn't get hunted?

How in the world was I supposed to believe that EUROO7 had simply told OrangeYoshi that he was a wolf the second he got turned?

I was willing to lynch EUROO7 and give OrangeYoshi the benefit of the doubt, but I wanted AVN and trespoe to be able to steer the village in the right direction into killing OrangeYoshi if I died and EUROO7 was, in fact, a goodie.

 

[OrangeYoshi]

That's so awesome.

 

[Kingepyon]

The three players (4 if you count Najs ) that I chose to hunt were based on when they placed their votes.

I was going after votes that people made in order to stay unnoticed. Middle of the pack, one vote without switching mostly, but there were other things I looked at.

And hey, I hit a wolf, a priest, and a GA before my orders started being changed.

 

[trespoe]

Can I sum up the paranoia?

How in the world was I supposed to suspect that an active JL mouthpiece, known to the wolves as a sorc, and at the same time in a game that so obviously doesn't have a sorc, doesn't get hunted?

How in the world was I supposed to believe that EUROO7 had simply told OrangeYoshi that he was a wolf the second he got turned?

I was willing to lynch EUROO7 and give OrangeYoshi the benefit of the doubt, but I wanted AVN and trespoe to be able to steer the village in the right direction into killing OrangeYoshi if I died and EUROO7 was, in fact, a goodie.

Bolded emphasis mine. Joeb summed up my opinion at least very succinctly. Give OY the chance to work his magic, but if he is lying, out he goes.

edit: the bold didn't work....it is already bolded. I will try something else...

 

[trespoe]

That's so awesome.

you have no idea how many times AVN suggested leaderlynching you......

 

[trespoe]

That's so awesome.

Another thing....

Your play is much better the last few games. Kudos.

Just thought I would mention it.

 

[Ciryandor]

Holy shit. OY pulling off a win via his shenanigans? This is MADNESS! I'll join the next big game, provided it hits 40 people AND has OY, jonti, AOK, Euro and Lemmy in it. (and it's all because I expect the other usual suspects to join in anyway )

 

[Cakravarti]

It was my goal to make love to as many players as possible. Consequently I died as I lived: in bed.

Death by snu-snu? Oh yea baby!

 

[Cakravarti]

I think the baddies gave up because they were certain the gig was up with OY knowing all the identities thanks to Najs. Also they they had no idea HC was 4th leader. It mustve looked like the gig was up. If I was still alive, I would have kept playing in the hopes we would hit a cursed, and with the aim of costing some of the remaining villagers the win (OY Im looking at you).

 

[Vainglory]

Death by snu-snu? Oh yea baby!

I regret nothing! I wish they'd JL'd me though, a JL lover would have been a perfect mouthpiece, and then I wouldn't have accidentally blocked the seer scans.

 

[reis91]

a JL lover would have been a perfect mouthpiece

*cue jonti*