Define competent wolf play. Because at the moment we're running at 2 goodie wins to every 1 baddie win, with the wolves only winning if they hunt the seer before it's too late. How are the wolves supposed to counter it? They've tried IJLs, and the village have destroyed them. They've tried finding the seer, and normally fail. Even on the occaisions they have, they sometimes fail because enough scans have happened to screw them. They've tried hunting mouthpieces, only to find they weren't scanned JL members. And anybody who uses the wild and erratic play that favours the wolves is punished for it, so they can't hide there either.
AVN's analysis was perfect. People have forgotten how to play werewolf the way you used to, and the result is overwhelming dominance of the JL, because villagers are no longer screwing things up. And this is making villagers complacent.
@Athalcor: I mentioned it in the Meso thread, but I'll do so here also. My original proposal was to replace the seer with a GA. That would suit a shepperd perfectly for your theme.