The reason why China loses to Japan so fast

[Bunnytob]

While there are many factors, the real reason can be summed up in one word: Guanxi.

GXC tends to have about half the military industry of China, and 3/4 the civilian industry. They also have about 1/3 of the divisions of China, which would be a godsend for China to have considering that Japan has just as many as China (In fact, AI Japan ALWAYS has more than China...).
The problem is that Guanxi doesn't commit those troops, and by the time Japan meets the stack of 10 divisions on the Guanxi border, China has all its divisions on half strength and Japan is on its first Ichi Go.

How to rectify? I have a few ideas:
1) Tweak the AI so Guanxi sends expeditionaries to China if in the same faction
2) Have a decision/event for Guanxi to choose to be annexed in the same vein as a Baltic State going communist - they can choose to, or not to with no adverse side-effects, just that the AI always takes it.

 

[cursorhiker]

Are you saying the Chinese United Front wasn't actually that united, and consisted of a lot of backstabbing and power grabs?

Whoa.

I agree with you that Japan shouldn't be able to steamroll China but to properly simulate why they got bogged down you'd need some updates to the way infrastructure and partisans work.

 

[Bunnytob]

I agree with you that Japan shouldn't be able to steamroll China but to properly simulate why they got bogged down you'd need some updates to the way infrastructure and partisans work.

Maybe start Japan with no malus, but give them a 10% attack/5% BRK/DEF penalty (stacks up to 5) every month that costs army EXP to remove or something, and change Ichi Go so that A) it only lasts 3 months and B) failing it gives a huge penalty - say 20% stability & war support.

 

[TheNexxus]

1938 Yellow River Flood event.
Japanese lose all units in several provinces (which become impassable and wasteland for 180 days), China loses stability and war support but gains manpower increase.

 

[RikiBreeiki]

I agree that japan should not be able to stream roll china, but you got to remember nothing in the game is historical, probably 2 most ahistorical major things in the game are american industrial production pre 1942 and China dying every game, these 2 would be followed by events in operation barbarossa

WTT did not bring any historical-balance changes in regard of china dying,
MTG did not bring any historical-balance changes in regard of american production

You can try using mods, only thing that saddens me is PDX making even historical focus paths of nations ahistorical , some very obvious examples lets give from MTG and WTT
WTT Japan stream rolling china, but after first 6 months, realistically it was opposite,
MTG USA neutrality pact giant wakes in 38 , partial mobilziation biggest air force and navy and highest production in 1940 woohoo f*ck yeah

I cant wait to see what soviet DLC will be like. I wish they did not rework majors like china japan usa the way they did now we will have smth else broken with next dlc

 

[Ethereld]

The problem with China is that sometimes seeing it capitulating in 1939/1940 is WAD as Japan is unable to make a proper Pacific war while it has an open front in China.

I do not speak for Paradox, but a lot of modders intentionally nerf China's ability to resist Japan for that reason alone. Now, after that there are another few reasons:

1) Uncooperative Warlords

2) Not enough supply problems in Central China

3) It is too hard for China to receive outside help and when it comes it is lackluster as the Burma Road.

 

[Nussor]

Wait, hasn't this problem been around for ages now?

 

[Meglok]

The problem with China is that sometimes seeing it capitulating in 1939/1940 is WAD as Japan is unable to make a proper Pacific war while it has an open front in China.

I do not speak for Paradox, but a lot of modders intentionally nerf China's ability to resist Japan for that reason alone.

Pretty sure this IS the PDS philosophy. AI China is the Asian AI Poland, Put up a token resistance and then die. In China's case after around a year or so.

Despite what some people think, there is NO WAY to code a stalemate with the base combat system of HOI4. And that can't be modded or coded better without creating an entirely different combat system. It doesn't matter what was historical, there is no way to represent all sides in the 3 cornered Sino-Japanese War Round II deciding to just co-exist for a few years, while the Chicoms and Nationalists stockpiled weapons to fight each other and the Japanese concentrated on the Pacific War.

For there to BE a Japan strong enough to fight a Pacific War against the Allies and force the US and Commonwealth to split their attention between Europe and Asia, China must fall in HOI4.

 

[TheNexxus]

Except you really can't equate China with Poland. If you're going to model eventualities, at the very least the historical outcome should be on one end of the scale. Meaning that a stalemate and loss in China should also be possible. China losing in almost every instance is like saying Japan is always doomed to defeat if it takes on the Americans.

One solution could be increasing partisan activity in China even before it capitulates.

 

[Nussor]

China losing in almost every instance is like saying Japan is always doomed to defeat if it takes on the Americans.

Well, Japan actually WAS doomed in this case. There was no way in hell they could keep up with US production. Ever.

 

[Paragon Badger]

Pretty sure this IS the PDS philosophy. AI China is the Asian AI Poland, Put up a token resistance and then die. In China's case after around a year or so.

Despite what some people think, there is NO WAY to code a stalemate with the base combat system of HOI4. And that can't be modded or coded better without creating an entirely different combat system. It doesn't matter what was historical, there is no way to represent all sides in the 3 cornered Sino-Japanese War Round II deciding to just co-exist for a few years, while the Chicoms and Nationalists stockpiled weapons to fight each other and the Japanese concentrated on the Pacific War.

For there to BE a Japan strong enough to fight a Pacific War against the Allies and force the US and Commonwealth to split their attention between Europe and Asia, China must fall in HOI4.

They were able to code the Phony War by having France's AI be super defensive and Germany's AI prioritizing Poland and the Benelux before France.

This new patch did something similar, but to Japan's benefit. Japan's AI is now much more cautious... which means it doesn't attack... which means China doesn't get Army XP... which means Japan gets rid of Marco Polo debuffs while China is helpless to do anything to save itself.

 

[RikiBreeiki]

Well, Japan actually WAS doomed in this case. There was no way in hell they could keep up with US production. Ever.

While it is true that they in long term could not keep up with production, There are important facts that are being completely ignored


pre 1942 june USA in terms of naval production have laid more ships than japan(more subs dds), but same tonnage, and made less complex ships meaning they from a perspective were out produced ( USA made more battleships and less carriers )

Between 1942 and 1943, usa production was still not completely kicking in ,

American Air Production close to germany's and not so bigger than the japanese , pre 1942 there is not really anything significant, between 1942 and 1943 USA produced 3500 Bomber aircraft and 6500 Fighter aircraft, For comparision germany made 5500 fighters , 4500 bombers and 1300 CAS air craft. data may not be completely accurate but people forget so many facts

Chinese never surrendered to Japanese and kept fighting
Japan actually inflicted heavy casualties on American, Australia, British and Dutch ships, took singapore, nearly all of spice islands, Burma, while occupying half of china
Germany got defeated in Al Alamein
Soviets went to hell and back

While USA had high production, Saying USA had high production does not justify callng anyone doomed, USA we are talking about was still not mobilized while soviets are dying, France is fully occupied, For USA to do anything meaningful like embargoing Japan, Japan have to do things like Occupy all of indochina and recognize vichy france while killing chinese , and requiring german u-boats to kill their convoys, is it enough for USA to join ? no, still at this point we are talking about USA's war production is lower than of the British, Soviet, German And Japanese world is burning and they are simply not doing anything meaningful,

Such an isolationist country could as well fail to mobilize if no one attacked them without an official war declaration killing their all battleships at once , even take a step further and make peace if it was not such a dirty declaration, or worse in case japanese never attacked them they would maybe never intervene seeing nothing going on in asia and soviets already beating germans .

By the time they decided to do meaningful things, outcome of the war in Europe could be guessed

USA definately killed Japan by bombing all major cities and nuking while convoy raiding and dropping mines in the seas around Japan, but you got to remember, so many things happened before that, and nothing can justify USA's war production pre 1942 in game,

there is too much propaganda but lets leave here smth i recently learned, USA lost unknown amounts of bombers , guessed to be 12k, and in each bomber there were 10 people i learnt that these people are included in casualties as Army casualties ,so most americans actually died as aircrew- pilots in ww2.

 

[TheNexxus]

If Japan had got a carrier or two at Pearl... if they’d followed up with a second or third strike targeting the fuel storage and repair yards... if Midway had turned out differently... if Japan had won in Guadacanal...

I look at Japan losing in August 1945 as the medium outcome. They could’ve lost much earlier or held the US back until 1946 and forced a peace settlement by forcing a costly ground invasion.

 

[Exard]

Playing Japan a lot myself, I find the "Escalate the war" decisions and specifically the cooldown too powerful. I'd like to see a cooldown increase to stretch the "commitment to the war" penalty over a much longer period, maybe even going up to '41. Beating China in half a year isn't really hard right now. Industry works for Japan over time and fighting without penalty and China still having a -20-42% penalty resulting in a steamroll after half a year into the war.

I also get very few army XP from my Attachées I send to China atm. Something is wrong with China for sure.

Also good point on Guanxi...I like to invade them to get the steel (Yamato+Carrier are expensive y'know?), but that territory is heavily garrisoned right now by Guanxi troops and even multiple russian divisions most of the time. Changed Guanxi Clique behaviour will greatly benefit China in the war, I agree!

edit: I'd like to see russian tanks back on the china main front line. Mountaineers in (south)east china are rather tough, but china also needs support to defend central (flat) china as any motorized/armored will blitz through up to Chongqing.

 

[him_15]

If China losing to Japan helps the Japanese's Southern expand campaign, then so be it. A AI Japan not capable to invade the resources rich South East Asia is boring as well, especially for the UK and US.

 

[Oerdin]

I don't know how to fix it but I do know I have never seen AI China survive in MtGs and that tells me something is very wrong.

 

[Meglok]

Except you really can't equate China with Poland. If you're going to model eventualities, at the very least the historical outcome should be on one end of the scale. Meaning that a stalemate and loss in China should also be possible. China losing in almost every instance is like saying Japan is always doomed to defeat if it takes on the Americans.

One solution could be increasing partisan activity in China even before it capitulates.

It has been discussed. The issue is that China is annexed instead of occupied, therefore resistance automatically ends.

Hopefully the whole partisan resistance model will be one of the topics for improvement whenever Russia is the focus of a DLC. Just because you annex a nation doesn't mean the people quit resisting.

 

[Meglok]

They were able to code the Phony War by having France's AI be super defensive and Germany's AI prioritizing Poland and the Benelux before France.

This new patch did something similar, but to Japan's benefit. Japan's AI is now much more cautious... which means it doesn't attack... which means China doesn't get Army XP... which means Japan gets rid of Marco Polo debuffs while China is helpless to do anything to save itself.

Iirc Podcat? had said they would like ai China to fold in around 18-24 months back in WtT discussions. Not the ideal historical outcome, but for game balance what was needed. Remember, this is a game, not a repeat of history.

 

[Asarii]

I don't know how to fox it but I do know I have never seen AI China survive in MtGs and that tells me something is very wrong.

nor have i seen russia surviving one time or UK/France being able to hold Africa... i guess there are multiple things wrong at the moment ...

 

[Ethereld]

Despite what some people think, there is NO WAY to code a stalemate with the base combat system of HOI4

I agree with you in that it may be intended Paradox design to China always lose. But a stalemate can be brought by the following:

1) Japan should begin with basic equipment and not equipment I. The Arisaka Type 99 was developed after the start of the Sino-Japanese War because they found that the service rifle of the Chinese were more deadly. With Basic Equipment Japan would have less punch but equal ability to hold the conquered territories.

2) Attrition in central China should be not better than fighting in Sub-Saharian Africa. The Japanese should have a very slow movement in the interior of China and suffer heavy atrittion. The Chinese could be helped with a national spirit that gives less atrittion in core territory.

3) The AI should receive more foreing help through the Burma Road or Lend Lease. Also the Warlords should be more cooperative and give their forces as expeditionary after Nanjing has fallen.

These factors together while not producing an eternal stalemate would help China to last until the Allies join the fray. The thing is that the Japanese AI at the moment is not able to fight both a land war in China and a lot of players in MP expect Japan to be able to take considerable allied resources from Europe.

The first can be solved by continuously working on the AI. Just as Germany can fight a war in the Eastern Front, help Italia in Africa and defend Western Europe you can have a Japanese AI fighting a hard war in China, invading Burma and fighting with nails and fingers in the Pacific.

Multiplayer is a trickier spot thou