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Wow ... joined in 2006 ... and these are your first posts..
Welcome to thew forum ;)

There is just one error in your theory - germany is the one who buys and sells to venezuela, and as such he must supply convoys.

Maybe I didn´t get it right: the one who INITIATES a trade (either buying or selling) is the one who has to supply convoys?
 
Got you at the first time, but I don't believe it, till I have seen it.

I hope you are right. If you are right, the game must write in the save, who has INITIATES the trade. Otherwise all oversea trades are canceled with small countries after loading a save game.