AI Germany and Going "Oppose Hitler"

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I...can't say I understand those graphs I'm looking at but I agree with the sentiment being expressed. I get Paradox's point about not having a tension generating nation (even as I think tension is kind of a dumb mechanic that should be removed, given that we now have war support), but at the very least, once they have a few options, they should change it.

Alternatively, or maybe additionally? I think at the start of each game, the game should assign a secret "designated aggressor" flag. That would basically decide who is going to be "The Germany" in that particular game. Not that other nations can't be aggressive even without being assigned (eg, even if USSR is chosen, Germany can still militarize the Rhineland) but this one nation would be guaranteed. It would have much more careful guidance by its AI to help it best utilize its path*, and either always be a major or if it's a minor then it would also be given cheats to a certain point**.

*to avoid situations like Hungary having their Austrian referendum fail because the AI isn't aware of the conditions to help it succeed

**more manpower, more construction speed, etc. Scaling down up to a certain factory count, maybe? So once you have over N factories, you lose it, and the farther below you are, the stronger the bonuses?
 
So there really is no common theme of setting the "self-destructive" paths to similarly low probabilities.

Indeed not. One of the most self-destructive paths is British decolonization yet the AI does that pretty often for gameplay reasons as you can easily grab the small and weak free nations afterwards. Especially helpful if you're playing a minor going for local or even global domination.

I think Japan is set to do communist and democratic paths sometimes also to have some games with Chinas fighting among themselves freely without outside aggression.

For the same reasons i think some monarchist or democratic Germany would be fine too so not all your games with let's say Czechoslovakia or Poland enp up very similarly.
 
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**more manpower, more construction speed, etc. Scaling down up to a certain factory count, maybe? So once you have over N factories, you lose it, and the farther below you are, the stronger the bonuses?

That's not the difficult part but making the AI ready for this kind of dynamic power situation from game to game would be extremely hard.

Just look even if Germany is destroyed early and Soviet Union is kinda free to become a warmonger they'll still usually build many weak divisions as their AI is prepared for a largely defensive war although in such a situation they'd need fewer but much stronger divisions for local offensives.

Making this for all potentially aggressive countries to work well would need an extreme amount of work on the AI.
 
This is still an issue today.