“Alari! Alari!” His wife’s voice rang out behind him. Alari spat. He wasn’t going back. Not there. Not yet. His job wasn’t finished.
The Russians promised him that they’d leave the Baltics when the Syndicalists had been defeated. When they no longer threatened his family and his home, when his Church and his people were no longer under attack. So he had fought. He fought in Germany, in Belgium, France. He had even fought in Africa for a bit, killing natives and Europeans alike in the blazing hot sun.
And now he had returned. Returned to find out they had lied. Lied about freedom, lied about progress, lied about giving the people protection. But they had forgotten, Alari thought furiously. Forgotten that even in during a world war local conflicts aren’t forgotten. No Pole forgot about Austria’s invasion just because his son was fighting against the French. No American from the north ignored Canada’s atrocities against their cities while they bled in the sands of Africa. And no Baltic citizen ever killed for the Russians without thinking about their dear home. These issues don’t just go away: they grow.
And now there are thousands like me, Alari figured. Thousands of returning soldiers, filled with combat experience and the spoils of a successful war. He turned and gave his wife a hug. It might be the last time he’d ever see her, after all.
And he had a train to catch.
Óscar Carmona, Marshal-President of Portugal
Crisis in Portugal:
Portugal was one of the victors of the Second World War. Its lands had never been occupied, its overall losses were light, and its colonies in Africa only grew larger. The return of the Portuguese African army had been met with cheering crowds and large ceremonies, a sight which others have assured me filled the heart and souls of every true Portuguese patriot with joy. But the Portuguese High Command still saw itself surrounded by enemies. Portugal had backed the wrong side in the Spanish Civil War, first by giving aid and succor to the troops of the legitimate government, and latter by helping the Spanish royal family escape to Canada. In Africa the Portuguese looked on with fear as thousands of Syndicalists poured across the continent’s porous borders. Its ally and effective puppet Mozambique remained loyal, but Marshal-President Oscar Carmona was convinced that the natives had treachery and Syndicalist fervor in their hearts. Carmona knew that Portugal remained too weak to stand on its own, but he did not trust Austria. Vienna was too close to Madrid. So instead Carmona quietly approached the British Emperor and confirmed Portuguese support for the Anglo-Portuguese Alliance.
It is rare that such an old event influences modern-day politics. The invoked Treaty of Windsor was signed in 1386.
The British and their Emperor were ecstatic at Portugal's overtures to the alliance. While Portugal did not go as far as joining the Entente it was difficult to believe that it one day wouldn't. The Portuguese colonies also resulted in National France being able to obtain some power and influence over lands in Africa that technically belonged to it. It would also provide the Entente with a member actually in Europe, something it hadn't had since the end of the First Weltkrieg. Finally, the propaganda victory was immense: the British Emperor could boast that the Imperial States was the true successor to England and the United Kingdom, not the bastardized puppetry shown in what the British dismissively called Albion.
Within days Austrian spies relayed the entire series of events to Austria. Otto von Hapsburg, worried about the consequences of a growing Entente, finally promised the deposed royal and pretender to the throne Duarte Nuno what he had always wanted: Portugal.
Duarte Nuno had spent his entire life wandering the courts of Europe looking for support in his quest to get back his family land. With the straightening of monarchism throughout the world, Nuno began to demand what he thought was his by right: the throne of Portugal.
King Xavier, a man fully of the far right, also supported Duarte Nuno. Xavier had never forgiven Portugal for helping his enemies during the Spanish Civil War, and was pleased that an opportunity to put a friendlier face on the throne was possible. Duarte Nuno also began contacting key supporters throughout the Portuguese Empire in order to prepare for a pro-monarchist coup. I only mention this now because it will be important later. At the moment Duarte Nuno remained safely outside of his would-be kingdom, and the Republic of Portugal was secure.
I would like to state that I myself am not a fan of monarchy for monarchy's sake. I know this sounds strange, given who my family is, but I believe that republicanism can be just as effective at running a country as a monarchy. I think that monarchs do have a natural advantage in halting extremism, though: the establish trust and respect the average person holds towards his monarch stops many from believing the worst about the him and his leadership. It also creates a group that is separated from politics, and thus (in theory) won't be corrupt by that insidious art.
Baltic Separatism:
The Baltics had long been a hot spot of discontent. The citizens of the former Baltic Duchy had only been pacified because of Russian promises that the Duchy would be allowed to go free after the Syndicalists had been defeated. Historians today believe that the Russian promises were genuine, or, at least, that Russia wanted a Baltic puppet rather than more troubled territory. Russian pride had, over time, become invested in control of the Baltics, and its economic interests became more closely intertwined as Riga became a major port for Russian goods. Finally, Germany's continued friendship with many Baltic noblemen and aristocrats deeply worried Russian officials, who were afraid the country might fall out of their orbit if they let it go free.. So when Baltic separatism took a troubling turn in October 1948 Petrograd decided that it could not and would not withdraw from the area. The conflict remained local, a small, pointless little fight by a ragtag group of revolutionaries who would be destroyed by one of the most powerful forces the world had ever known.
Or it would have, anyways, except one of the leaders of the Baltic Provincial government officially asked for Germany to support the cause of Baltic independence.
That request instantly turned the conflict into an international affair. Tsar Vladimir Kirillovich Romanov, embarrassed and infuriated by the official's actions, demanded that Germany stay out of the conflict. The German Kaiser had no desire to upset the Tsar, and thus gave a speech condemning terrorism and extremism. This should have calmed things down and made the conflict local once again. Unfortunately for all sides, the former Duke of the Baltic States, Adolf Friedrich I, publicly supported Baltic separatism in an interview with a Swedish newspaper.
Grand Duke Adolf Friedrich I had lived in Germany since the occupation of the Baltics by Russia. He was an avid reader and explorer, and spent much of his personal wealth expanding scientific research.
The Russians, it must be said, overreacted. They could have simply let the Duke have his say, dealt with the slight uptick in unrest, and let the thing simply settle down with time. Instead they demanded Germany send them the Duke. Part of this, I suspect, was calculated to humiliate Germany, to show them that they were absolutely the lesser partner in their alliance with Austria and Russia. Germany still felt very much committed to its idea of MittleEuropa, and the Baltic states were a major part of the former alliance.
The Germans, who saw no alternative and who believed that Vienna would not support them in the current crisis, agreed to hand over the Duke to the Russians. The other nations and people that made of Mittleeuropa were devastated; Berlin's betrayal of the Duke eradicated any hope of German support for their own independence. Many began leaving Berlin altogether, with most heading to Vienna, though a few, crucially, believed that the British Emperor was a better bet in the long term for them to return to their homes.
Many soldier that had fought for Germany came from the Baltics. When they returned home they kept their weapons and turned them on the Russians.
The Duke's transfer in late November to Russia went bad from the start. Due to the Duke's well known fear of flying the Germans opted to transport him to Russia via a newly built train line that linked up directly to Petrograd. The train's journey was around halfway complete when a roadblock forced the train to stop. Soon after, Baltic fighters swarmed the vehicle, talking many prisoners and liberating the Duke from his imprisonment. Quickly the Baltic underground gave the word to its members that the Duke had been freed, and a wide scale uprising began in earnest.
The Russians, naturally, blamed the Germans for the escape. While it hasn't been proven one way or the other, I myself suspect that Berlin got in touch with the rebels and told them of the Duke's movements. None of the German guards, it is often noted, were harmed in any way. The Duke himself was a close friend and confidant of Wilhelm III. And, most crucially, German-Mittleeuropa relations had collapsed in the wake of the crisis, and it is possible that Berlin believed that aiding the Duke in his escape would lead to others who were wavering come back to the embrace of Germany.
At one am on November the twenty second, the Russian ambassador to Vienna, Andrey Vyshinsky, informed Otto von Hapsburg that their respective countries' alliance was at an end. Pyotr Nikolayevich Wrangel, the man who effectively co-ruler of Russia, no longer believed Austria could be trusted or supported. Vienna's apathy towards German actions confirmed in Wrangel's mind that Russia would always be the odd man out in the new order of Europe, and that the other powerful countries in the Eighth Coalition would always team up to oppose Russian interests. He was uninterested in Russia being subordinate to any other nation or union. Tsar Vladimir Romanov was less convinced; he had seen the glories the Russo-Austrian army had won liberating France, England, and Africa, and Russia's influence had grown greatly during the past five years. But slowly he was persuaded by Wrangle that while the Austrians were not enemies, they could not be trusted as friends. Andrey Vyshinsky was informed of their decision hours latter. The Eighth Coalition was no more.
Andrey Vyshinsky in the late 1940s. Whispers about his past revolutionary activities constantly spurred Vyshinsky towards reactionary ideologies, something that would end in tragedy for the prolific author and renowned diplomat.
This was a catastrophic diplomatic failure for Vienna. Its entire worldview stood on the foundation of the Russo-Austrian alliance. The Eighth Coalition was then more powerful than any possible combination of its enemies, but alone Japan and the Imperial States (among other threats) could begin meddling in the affairs of both Austria and Russia. Most ominously, Hungarian informants in Austrian-held Ukraine began noticing an uptick in the activity of Russian spies. It seemed that soon Russia would also be considered a threat.
The celebrated and world renowned hero of the Russian Revolution, Pyotr Nikolayevich Wrangel was wildly considered to be a fair and just ruler of Russia. Beloved by much of the population, Wrangel constantly worried about anything that might happen to them. This instinct, though laudable, occasionally became indistinguishable from paranoia.