Werewolf CCXXXI: Crusade!

[Caillean]

Caillean's post was certainly deserving of attention so I think I'll leave this for now unless someone can build a better case based on this.

I know it did... Sorry for that. It was more of a placeholder while bringing kids to bed, and then it was too late and I was uncertain of survival.

I agree. No one's voted Esemesas yet either (save an abandoned vote from Sleepyhead). Other people who haven't had there names mentioned much include Alxeu and K-59.

That list is longer than that.

Players that didn't have any votes on them at deadline:
Arkasas
Aedan
Alxeu
Avernite
Yvanoff
Hax
Esemesan
Reis
OY

From that list 4 plays are quite active giving us information in the topic, so no need to look closer to Avernite, Hax, Reis and OY for now.
Arkasas and Yvanoff are already having some attention today, so I will leave them for now.

That leaves me with Alxeu and Aedan, both awfully silent here. Since I type this on my phone, I will only post the history of my chosen candidate:

In

Vote Dedonus

Tie back.

I think Xarkan's mildly suspicious from yesterday, could be worth continuing pressure on him.

Vote Xarkan

His only reason to vote was creating a tie and putting pressure on someone. He really wants to keep his head low or so it seems.

Vote Aedan

 

[johho888]

Official vote count, 10h 23min to deadline

Arkasas - 2 - esemesas, Sleepyhead
OrangeYoshi - 1 - Avernite
Yvanoff - 1 - beartjah
Dedonus - 1 - reis91
aedan777 - 1 - Caillean

not voted - 12 - Claude LC, aedan777, alynkio, Hax, Dedonus, Xarkan, OrangeYoshi, Arkasas, Yvanoff, alxeu, brovahkiin, Capibara

missed 2 votes - 1 - Claude LC

 

[OrangeYoshi]

That villager comment from Dedonus is weird. And I kinda wanna vote him for it. But reis seems a little fishy and I'm not sure I wanna vote alongside him. I feel like Caillean makes some good points as well.

Let's get 3 up there again.

Vote Yvanoff

 

[Avernite]

If you're going for throwaways then Reis should be your target since his votes weren't threatening on either day 1 or 2 If the votecounts are correct. Not that I oppose targetting OY(see above), but if I may ask: why specifically OY out of all the throwaways?

I have reviewed the evidence and agree reis is a better throwawat candidate, even if I would say his day 1 vote is not entirely throwaway.

Still, Dedonus came across as more lazy than throwaway (claiming he was 'ordered' to do something).
But he already has votes, so:

UNvote OrangeYoshi, Vote reis91

 

[Yvanoff]

So first, OrangeYoshi dismantles beartjah's case on me (because it was a BS case).... then votes alongside him ? Not sure I follow the logic

 

[OrangeYoshi]

So first, OrangeYoshi dismantles beartjah's case on me (because it was a BS case).... then votes alongside him ? Not sure I follow the logic

Different logic. See Caillean's post above. If you have some input on why you don't need attention and who would be a better target, please share. I'm more than happy to change my vote based on new input.

 

[brovahkiin]

I want to look at the calliean wagon. Yes the vote was lazy but the sudden massive swap is just off to me
specifically I feel dedonus is the most suspicious of all of them
vote dedonus

 

[Dedonus]

I am really surprised that nobody is looking at esemesas.

Unvote Caillean
Vote Xarkan

Tie?

This post happened 4 minutes prior to deadline. I can't tell from this post whether he realized that Yakman still had 3 votes on him or not. That either means he was trying to snipe to a 3-way tie or he thought he was going for a two-way tie between Caillean and Xarkan and was ignorant that another player had 3 votes still on him. This, then, lead to Xarkan panicking and expanding the tie to four people. Without the last minute switch to Yakman, there would have been a high body count last night. Sure, we were lucky that we found the sorcerer, but this could have ended way worse. Worse case scenario would be 7 players dead (4 from lynch, 1 from hunt, 1 from zombie hunter shot, and 1 from hunter counter-zombie hunter shot). I don't know about you, but that would have been a pretty steep cost for killing the sorcerer.

Yesterday, Xarkan was run up because he reestablished the 3-way tie late in the day (he did it with about 20 minutes left, if I'm doing the math right) on Day 1. esemesas did something similar (reestablish a 3-way tie, although the 3-way tie had one different candidate than earlier in the day) with even less time on the clock (4 minutes). Furthermore, this is the second time he switched his vote to alter whether there was a tie or not (and that time he said he won't be around at deadline, but according to his own words, he was awaken until 15 minutes til). We need to at least take a good look at him.

Vote Esemesas

 

[Avernite]

This post happened 4 minutes prior to deadline. I can't tell from this post whether he realized that Yakman still had 3 votes on him or not. That either means he was trying to snipe to a 3-way tie or he thought he was going for a two-way tie between Caillean and Xarkan and was ignorant that another player had 3 votes still on him. This, then, lead to Xarkan panicking and expanding the tie to four people. Without the last minute switch to Yakman, there would have been a high body count last night. Sure, we were lucky that we found the sorcerer, but this could have ended way worse. Worse case scenario would be 7 players dead (4 from lynch, 1 from hunt, 1 from zombie hunter shot, and 1 from hunter counter-zombie hunter shot). I don't know about you, but that would have been a pretty steep cost for killing the sorcerer.

7 dead with only the sorceror among them would be bad, surely. But we do not know that that would have been our only gain from it.

 

[alxeu]

I am really surprised that nobody is looking at esemesas.



This post happened 4 minutes prior to deadline. I can't tell from this post whether he realized that Yakman still had 3 votes on him or not. That either means he was trying to snipe to a 3-way tie or he thought he was going for a two-way tie between Caillean and Xarkan and was ignorant that another player had 3 votes still on him. This, then, lead to Xarkan panicking and expanding the tie to four people. Without the last minute switch to Yakman, there would have been a high body count last night. Sure, we were lucky that we found the sorcerer, but this could have ended way worse. Worse case scenario would be 7 players dead (4 from lynch, 1 from hunt, 1 from zombie hunter shot, and 1 from hunter counter-zombie hunter shot). I don't know about you, but that would have been a pretty steep cost for killing the sorcerer.

Yesterday, Xarkan was run up because he reestablished the 3-way tie late in the day (he did it with about 20 minutes left, if I'm doing the math right) on Day 1. esemesas did something similar (reestablish a 3-way tie, although the 3-way tie had one different candidate than earlier in the day) with even less time on the clock (4 minutes). Furthermore, this is the second time he switched his vote to alter whether there was a tie or not (and that time he said he won't be around at deadline, but according to his own words, he was awaken until 15 minutes til). We need to at least take a good look at him.

Vote Esemesas

This is actually interesting because Caillean mentions Esemesas as one of the people who didn't have votes at deadline, and then seemingly forgets about him:

I know it did... Sorry for that. It was more of a placeholder while bringing kids to bed, and then it was too late and I was uncertain of survival.



That list is longer than that.

Players that didn't have any votes on them at deadline:
Arkasas
Aedan
Alxeu
Avernite
Yvanoff
Hax
Esemesan
Reis
OY

From that list 4 plays are quite active giving us information in the topic, so no need to look closer to Avernite, Hax, Reis and OY for now.
Arkasas and Yvanoff are already having some attention today, so I will leave them for now.

That leaves me with Alxeu and Aedan, both awfully silent here. Since I type this on my phone, I will only post the history of my chosen candidate:







His only reason to vote was creating a tie and putting pressure on someone. He really wants to keep his head low or so it seems.

Vote Aedan

I still do feel that mega-ties should be avoided, and especially this early, too. Xarkan was trying to save himself yesterday, Esemesas has no excuse.

Vote Esemesas

 

[esemesas]

I was aware that I was making a three way tie, I even commented how sad I was when Sleepy broke it. What can I say I'm a chaotic player, ordered games are boring and give the wolves more shade to hide under. Last minute ties involving packmates increase their chances of making a mistake

 

[alynkio]

Caillean got pushed up less than 30 minutes to the deadline. Could this have been an attempt to draw attention away from the other candidates? Something leaves me feeling this gave an easy way to target someone that wasn't a wolf(Yakman may not be in contact with the baddies, but one of capi, Xarkan and whoever was up in the votes at the time could've still been wolves). However, Caillean's post was certainly deserving of attention so I think I'll leave this for now unless someone can build a better case based on this.

This assumes not only that one of Capibara and Xarkan and Brovahkiin was a wolf and the push against Caillean was joined (by at least some of us) to save them. It seems just as likely if not more that Xarkan and Capi and Brovah were wolf-approved candidates and the late push (on someone casting a fairly blatant throw-away vote late in the day) represent a desire to take back control of the village from the wolves misleading us with specious cases. People's behavior can be twisted into all kinds of narratives -- time (and scans and voting data) will eventually show which one is correct. Until vote analysis becomes a useful tool (i.e. we've found wolves or we're a bunch of days in), I try to spread attention around, and concentrate it on... well... the sort of people who make throw-away votes near deadline. It suggests that someone might not be taking the game seriously (I don't care who dies, as long as it's not me or my packmates), or is obviously trying to fly under the radar. From Caillean's post today, it seems like she may have just been busy and aware she needed to throw down a vote (Of course this can be true of goodies as well as baddies), but this is enough to not make me want to run her up again (even if I question the wisdom of trying to run Aedan up. Aedan will pop in when he has something interesting to say. Of the 2 she mentioned, I'm more interested in Alxeu.)

Yesterday, Xarkan was run up because he reestablished the 3-way tie late in the day (he did it with about 20 minutes left, if I'm doing the math right) on Day 1. esemesas did something similar (reestablish a 3-way tie, although the 3-way tie had one different candidate than earlier in the day) with even less time on the clock (4 minutes). Furthermore, this is the second time he switched his vote to alter whether there was a tie or not (and that time he said he won't be around at deadline, but according to his own words, he was awaken until 15 minutes til). We need to at least take a good look at him.

Agreed. The difference between a TIE made for information and a TIE made for indifferent slaughter. One thing to keep things close 10 minutes before deadline, another to do it 3 minutes before. Avernite said something to this effect earlier. Also, I feel his switch on and then off of Caillean could be an interesting data point too. Aware I'll be the 3rd Esemesas voter in a row, but I've been suspicious of him for a while and feel like this is the best place for my vote. Also... time for work .


VOTE ESEMESAS

 

[brovahkiin]

fyi I'm not gonna be able to be around much today. Sorry

 

[johho888]

Official vote count, 3h 56min to deadline

esemesas - 3 - Dedonus, alxeu, alynkio,
Arkasas - 2 - esemesas, Sleepyhead
Yvanoff - 2 - beartjah, OrangeYoshi
Dedonus - 2 - reis91, brovahkiin
aedan777 - 1 - Caillean
reis91 - 1 - Avernite

not voted - 7 - Claude LC, aedan777, Hax, Xarkan, Arkasas, Yvanoff, Capibara

missed 2 votes - 1 - Claude LC

 

[Avernite]

Well I guess we're at the point where I should stop flailing around and start making a choice among the contenders.

Dedonus' comment was dodgy about supposedly being ordered to do things by the external factor 'village'
Esemesas dropping off Caillean's list of targets is a bit wonky, and the tie work was a possibly bad idea, possibly good (depends on what the other tied were).
Yvanoff and Arkasas seem to be mostly guilty of poor defence, rather than an initial good reason for death.

Picking one I'll go for:
UNvote reis91, Vote Dedonus

 

[reis91]

By the way, can we get a zombie hunter to shoot Claude?

 

[brovahkiin]

By the way, can we get a zombie hunter to shoot Claude?

As a true knight of the round table I shall deal with my rogue brethren

 

[Claude LC]

By the way, can we get a zombie hunter to shoot Claude?

Why are you like that.

 

[Claude LC]

Honestly. I haven't had the time to read the thread or to make any analysis whatsoever.
So if someone would be kind enough to help me out here. So I can make a more "informed" vote. Will be appreciated

 

[Avernite]

Honestly. I haven't had the time to read the thread or to make any analysis whatsoever.
So if someone would be kind enough to help me out here. So I can make a more "informed" vote. Will be appreciated

Vote Dedonus or Esemesas, they are the frontrunners. I find Dedonus more dodgy because of how he seemed to be hiding any responsibility for his own vote on day 1.