1859: Oyama vindicated
...but no man who has looked at the state of the Continent can shut his eyes to the fact that it is the disturbed, restless, and uneasy condition of the Italian States which endangers the peace of Europe, and that that restless and uneasy condition results from bad government in the countries to the south of the Po; and that this bad government is fostered by the confidence on which the rulers of the different States in that part of Italy rest...
State opening and Emperor's speech
The Emperor's speech for 1859 found the Diet more divided than ever. The election of five deputies of avowedly radical sympathies overshadowed a more fundamental problem for the Patriotic Union: their majority was now a mere three deputies. Fortunately for the Government, the radical deputies refused to take their oaths of office, objecting to the requirement it placed upon them to uphold the paramount place of Shinto in the Empire. This gave the Patriotic Union a working majority of eleven deputies - ten after the election of one of their number as Speaker - enough to get the Government's most critical business through, although controversial legislation was out of the question.
Finance Minister Iwao announced that the budget deficit had grown over the course of 1858 due to increased industrial subsidies resulting from the financial crisis in Europe. For this reason, liberal deputies voted against the Finance Bill, arguing that the subsidy and tariff regimes distorted the market and rewarded inefficient industries at the expense of better run firms.
Despite this resistance, the Diet approved the Budget - which was essentially unchanged on 1858's - by a healthy majority. Although the deficit had grown to nearly £143,000 a year, the Treasury had reserves aplenty for the time being.
Domestic affairs
The Government's methods of countering the rise of liberal sentiment among the electorate were essentially those it had deployed against the Loyalists. Included amongst these was the aggressive redrawing of constituency boundaries in order to exploit the winner-takes-all nature of the Diet's first past the post electoral system. In July 1859, Kido Matsumoto, dean of the faculty of law at the University of Kyoto, published
Notes towards the legitimation of the Diet, which argued for a new system of apportioning seats to better represent voters' preferences.
To general surprise, Prime Minister Oyama announced that the Government would establish a commission to examine the feasibility of Professor Matsumoto's proposals. Though not naturally sympathetic to such ideas, Oyama's decision was based on two propositions. Firstly, focusing the liberals on arcane debates over electoral systems would keep them from doing real mischief and hopefully allow them to be portrayed as detached intellectuals rather than leaders of men. Secondly, if support for the Patriotic Union continued to decline it might well be in conservatives' long-term interests to ensure that the party in power was not unduly strengthened by the system, lest a hypothetical liberal Government gain access to the same tricks.
In February, the Diet passed the Navy Act 1859, authorising the extension of the Empire's naval dockyards to better accommodate steam warships. Expansion plans were initially delayed due to shortages of lumber and iron, caused by the growth of the rail network. However, by the year's end construction work at the yards was under way.
Concerns over rising demand for iron and coal provided the Government with their next legislative priority. The Mining Bill sought to persuade firms to modernise their operations in order to increase productivity. Alongside subsidies and technical assistance, the Bill explicitly prohibited the formation and operation of labour unions, a move welcomed by mine owners, but resented by their workers.
In May, the Navy adopted new regulations to reflect the growing use of steam propulsion.
Greater familiarity with steam and a programme of retro-fitting existing warships with paddlewheels meant that the average fleet's cruising speed could be increased. Given Japan's military commitments in the Great Eastlands and Europe, the time thus saved was welcome indeed.
Foreign affairs
Diplomatically, 1859 started badly for Prime Minister Oyama, but ended with the apparent vindication of his policies. The worst news came early in the year, when it was discovered that Britain and Russia had signed an alliance.
The spectre the Empire’s two greatest enemies co-ordinating their strategies against it sent shockwaves through Japanese politics. Oyama's studied non-interventionism was blamed for allowing Japan’s rivals to think they could act without regard to the Empire’s interests. The Loyalists demanded that the Government respond, but in truth there was little that could be done.
Emboldened by the new alliance, the United Kingdom continued to pursue the reconquest of the British Isles, this time turning its attention towards a troubled England, whose only territory was - paradoxically - north Wales.
The war was a short and relatively bloodless affair. England's newly-installed democratic government had not endeared itself to its citizens and struggled to raise forces to oppose the British invasion. This was underlined by the fact that it was unable to make much use of proffered Japanese financial support. The war ended in September with Britain victorious. In all England and Wales, only Northumberland remained independent.
The ink had hardly dried on the Russo-British alliance when it became clear that the Tsar's government was losing ground internationally. Its surprisingly rapid defeat at the hands of Japan in the war of 1847 had shown that Russia had little stomach for a fight against a committed power - a fact that subsequent victories over the minor states of Central Asia could not conceal.
That apart, the Russian economy was falling further and further behind those of more developed nations. The nineteenth-century had passed its mid-point, yet Russian society was still overwhelmingly rural and agrarian. Russia's army remained huge by Western European standards, but its capacity to wage war was limited by the need for conscripts to return home to help with the harvest.
By contrast, tiny Brabant had all the makings of an industrial and technical powerhouse. States across Germany and the Netherlands looked to Brabant for inspiration, support and advice, all the while scorning Russia as a symbol of a bygone era, little relevant to the modern world.
The immediate outcome of the decline of Russian influence was a lessening of diplomatic pressure in Sindh and Manchukuo. Where once Japan had worked hard to counteract Russian meddling, now Sindhi and Manchu nobles refused to meet with Russian ambassadors.
The waning of Russian prestige was badly received in St. Petersburg, but the Tsar's reaction was to prove costly. On 2 March, Russia declared war on Castile, laying claim to the latter's colonial settlement in Talaya. Spurred by a need to demonstrate Russia's superiority over an acknowledged power, and believing that the alliance with Britain would prevent foreign intervention, the Tsar hoped that a short, victorious war would restore Russia to her rightful place in world affairs.
Almost immediately, these calculations were found to be false. The British, fearing a French response and mindful of the difficulties of transatlantic communications in the face of a hostile French fleet, demurred, pointing out that they had not requested Russian assistance against England. When the Russian ambassador demanded that Britain honour its commitments, the British Foreign Minister replied that he had no intention of taking the United Kingdom to war to satisfy the Tsar's wounded pride. In truth, the diminution of Russian influence had reduced the value of the alliance in Britain's eyes. In the final account, Prussia was the only ally to stand by Russia.
With no possibility of British intervention, France was emboldened to come to Castile's aid. The last clash between Russia and France had ended in stalemate in 1847, but the French Government were confident that they had since grown stronger even as Russia had weakened.
In Japan, the dissolution of the Russo-British alliance was greeted with relief by Prime Minister Oyama, whose caution now appeared justified. The Diet swiftly approved a generous subsidy to support the Castilian war effort.
The Castilian government, once it had got over the initial shock of finding itself at war, was pleasantly surprised by how well events had turned in their favour. France, Modena and a handful of other allies had stood by them, while Russia had been deserted. With this in mind, Castile decided to capitalise on its unexpected good fortune by making demands of its own, although few international observers regarded territory on the Baltic as a good choice.
Japan's foreign policy successes were crowned in late April with the repudiation of the British-Mexican friendship treaty, which had given the former privileged access to the latter's markets, and - more worryingly - had raised fears of a two-fronted assault against Japanese possessions in the Great Eastlands.
Years of patient diplomacy came to fruition with the removal of Sir John Baker as Mexican Foreign Secretary following a vote of no confidence in Parliament. His replacement, Lord Stevenson, was less sympathetic to British interests than his Harrow-educated predecessor, and - it was hoped - would soon lead Mexico back into the Japanese camp. Continued British aggression against England helped to persuade Mexican MPs that their former colonial masters might turn their attentions to their wayward colony after they had finished the conquest of the British Isles. For its part, Britain was too preoccupied with the war and the repercussions of the short-lived Russian alliance to notice Japan's growing influence in Mexico until it was too late.
The final surprise of an eventful year came in August. Taking advantage of Castile's war with Russia, King Ascanio of Milan launched the fourth Modenan war, laying claim to the remainder of southern Italy. Ascanio's gambit was well-timed - Castile felt unable to commit to a fresh war, while Modena now found itself facing both a distant Russia and an aggressive Italian neighbour.
Unlike previous Milanese wars, King Ascanio this time declined to call on his Japanese allies for assistance, believing that he should be able to win the war outright and seeing no reason to share in the glory. Thus it was that the Army of Italy stood on the sidelines as Milanese and Modenan troops vied for control of the Po valley.
By Christmas, Milan had succeeded in occupying Modena itself, at the expense of losing control of Lucca and seeing Florence itself put to siege. As the year ended, the main Milanese army had reversed course, marching to the relief of the capital and to what promised to be the decisive battle of the war.
Although Modena fought on, it appeared as if Milan would inevitably triumph. The growing power of Japan's ally and the fact that the Empire itself could remain unengaged while reaping the benefits of victory was seized on by isolationist politicians, who argued that their political opponents' adventurism would have cost far more blood and treasure and produced no better results: Oyama's vindication was complete.
End of year
Despite the year's foreign policy triumphs, the Patriotic Union's support showed no signs of rallying at the 1860 elections. For the first time, conservative deputies no longer made up a majority of the Diet, although the continued exclusion of the radicals meant that they still enjoyed a five-seat lead over the combined partisans of the Loyalists and the liberals.
Somehow, Oyama needed to find a way to stem the liberal tide.