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from Day 1:
Rysz and Lemeard would not be packmates. When Yakman's votecount was there, Rysz voted Lemeard to tie him w/ AOK. Lemeard voted Xeno, to raise him above the others, instead of Split or AOK. Rysz switches to Xeno to keep AOK in the game. A possible packmate connection between Lemeard and Split could exist. Since I am a villager, Rysz most probably is also.
from Day 2:
Nautilu gets run up fast to four votes. hdk votes Xeno because he hates subs (that is a good reason?) post 185.
Jonti posts a picture of torpedoing subs, and while he doesn't vote Xeno, he seems to implicitly support it.
The votes are at Nautilu @ 4, Lemeard @ 3, Xeno @ 2. If I am right, and Nautilu and Lemeard are wolves, this would be bad, right?
Split votes Xeno (another connection for the Split/Lemeard pack), Cymsdale switches to Xeno, Nautilu switches, and finally Xarkan switches.
Looking at that, if I had to pick a pack right now, I would say Lemeard, Split, Nautilu and one of the following: Cymsdale, Euro, hdk, or jonti (as a last resort).
I would bet I got three of the pack in the above list.
Why did hdk not let anyone know his vote was wrong in Yakman's list day 1?
EDIT: I have jonti there for a throwaway vote day 1, and his "support" of Xeno getting axed. If he was a wolf, he wouldn't want to get his hands dirty.
Rysz and Lemeard would not be packmates. When Yakman's votecount was there, Rysz voted Lemeard to tie him w/ AOK. Lemeard voted Xeno, to raise him above the others, instead of Split or AOK. Rysz switches to Xeno to keep AOK in the game. A possible packmate connection between Lemeard and Split could exist. Since I am a villager, Rysz most probably is also.
from Day 2:
Nautilu gets run up fast to four votes. hdk votes Xeno because he hates subs (that is a good reason?) post 185.
Jonti posts a picture of torpedoing subs, and while he doesn't vote Xeno, he seems to implicitly support it.
The votes are at Nautilu @ 4, Lemeard @ 3, Xeno @ 2. If I am right, and Nautilu and Lemeard are wolves, this would be bad, right?
Split votes Xeno (another connection for the Split/Lemeard pack), Cymsdale switches to Xeno, Nautilu switches, and finally Xarkan switches.
Looking at that, if I had to pick a pack right now, I would say Lemeard, Split, Nautilu and one of the following: Cymsdale, Euro, hdk, or jonti (as a last resort).
I would bet I got three of the pack in the above list.
Why did hdk not let anyone know his vote was wrong in Yakman's list day 1?
EDIT: I have jonti there for a throwaway vote day 1, and his "support" of Xeno getting axed. If he was a wolf, he wouldn't want to get his hands dirty.
Not entirely true, when he made it THE_SPLIT had three votes, so therefore they are very unlikely packmates
Agreed, I know Walrus and Nautilu can't both be wolves,
I don't want EUROO7 or Lemeard dead as they are very hard to lynch, the same with jonti, we should wait for JL before we lynch them, at least not today without an announcement, so that only leaves the four below
Which is why, I think one of:
Jamie550 / THE_SPLIT
and one of
Nautilu / Walrus
Should be run up today, since I think that Jamie is marginally more suspicious than THE_SPLIT, we should vote him
And Nautilu already has got voted, so I think we should vote Walrus
Therefore the two people I recommend to be lynched are Walrus and Jamie550 in a TIE
I'm putting my neck on the line here, if I get it wrong I die tomorrow, and if I get it right I probably get hunted
Preliminary Vote Count, Day 3 ~ 19 Hours to deadline
Cymsdale - Rysz,
walrus - marty99,
jamie550 - Cymsdale
THE_SPLIT - walrus
jonti-h - nautilu,
Lemeard - trespoe v.2, EUROO7
EUROO7 - Lemeard
No Vote: the_hdk, THE_SPLIT, jamie550, jonti-h
Cymsdale - Rysz,
walrus - marty99,
jamie550 - Cymsdale
THE_SPLIT - walrus
jonti-h - nautilu,
Lemeard - trespoe v.2, EUROO7
EUROO7 - Lemeard
No Vote: the_hdk, THE_SPLIT, jamie550, jonti-h
Unvote The_Split
Vote Jamie550
Based on martys analysis (even though it's wrong in my case
)
Vote Jamie550
Based on martys analysis (even though it's wrong in my case
)
Unvote LemeardUnvote The_Split
Vote Jamie550
Based on martys analysis (even though it's wrong in my case
Vote Walrus
Cymdale voted later, yet you put him in front. I would strongly support chronological votecounts.
2.5 hours to deadline, Nautilu was at 4, Lem at 3 and Xeno at 2. Split chose to bring Xeno at 3, not "saving" Naut. Lem's role is unimportant, as he was not really at danger of lynching yet.
That stood for an hour, until it was Cymsdale who switched the lead from Nautilu to Xeno (4 over 3). 45 Minutes later Nautilu brought Xeno up higher to 5 (this is a simple vote to put himself out of danger). Xarkan the villager made it final 15 minutes to deadline.
So if any conclusion is to get from the last hours of yesterday, it is that Cymsdale made the real choice, and no one else can really be implicated over that. Also Nautilu could still be a wolf in that scenario.
I can also see possibilities for Jamie, so I go along with the jamie-tie, and propose cymsdale as 2nd candidate.
My vote was already there, so I'll just keep it so. Although I could also support Nautilu as 2nd candidate, as it looked like he was being saved (by a single wolf though, which would undermine my claim... After all, it could be that nothing special happened yesterday, and it were all just villagers). Then those not involved would come in the picture, names mentioned above by others.
What other choices?
Also, you'll do as you're told.
how about "not yet"
I want to see what else shakes loose.
I would also like to see a JL sometime.
Gee, I dunno...
let me look at what I posted before...
how about Lemeard, Nautilu, or Split?
maybe even you......
DUN DUN DUUUUNNNN!!!