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Dev Diary #40 - Opium Wars

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Good evening, and welcome to this week’s instalment of the Victoria 3 Dev Diaries! To cap off this month’s theme of trade, I’ll be talking about the Opium Wars and introducing the concepts of Cultural Obsessions and Religious Taboos.

In the 1830’s China was ravaged by opium addiction. The impact was severe and broad in its effects, with myriad social, economic and even military consequences. Despite attempts by the Qing government to restrict imports, British merchants continued to illegally flood the market. The situation came to a head when Qing officials ordered the seizure and destruction of opium in Canton, to which the British responded with force - the First Opium War resulted in crushing defeats for the Qing government and began an era of unfavourable and humiliating treaties with the Western powers.

In Victoria 3 we represent the Opium Wars through Journal Entries and Events. Qing China begins in the midst of this crisis, but it is also possible for other unrecognised countries to experience this content if the in-game conditions are appropriate.


The Opium Crisis event applies harsh negative modifiers to Standard of Living throughout your country, to your Mortality Rate, and to the effectiveness of your military forces.
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This is a good time to talk a little more about Cultural Obsessions. A culture can become obsessed with a specific Good - Pops of that Culture, regardless of where they are in the world, will spend significantly more on Goods they are obsessed with compared to other goods in the same Pop Needs category. So in the case of Opium in China, Han pops will spend a lot more of their wealth buying Opium than they do on Liquor or Tobacco. This naturally drives up demand for Opium, and therefore makes it more expensive within the Chinese market. The foreign powers selling Opium to China are making a killing exploiting this demand and feeding the addiction. Cultures can develop new Obsessions over time, and you’ll need to react to changes in pop demands as a result.

On a mechanically related note (though unrelated to the Opium Wars), Religions have Taboos against certain goods. For instance Muslim faiths have a Taboo against the consumption of Liquor and Wine. This has the opposite effect from a Cultural Obsession - pops following these religions will spend much less on purchasing that Good compared to other Goods in that category. So Muslims will typically buy Tobacco and Opium instead of Liquor, and they will buy Tea or Coffee instead of Wine. Just as in real life, not everybody completely adheres to the tenets of their faith, and so these act as powerful modifiers on purchasing decisions rather than total “bans” on consumption. Unlike Obsessions, Taboos are static throughout the game.


Beijing is one of the most populated States in the world in 1836. Besides its 19 million people, it is also home to the Forbidden City Monument, a massive Government Administration sector, as well as a large section of the now defunct Great Wall.
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Back to the Opium Wars!

If China (or whichever country is the target, but we’ll keep things simple and refer to China from here on out) chooses to confront the issue head on, the Opium Crisis Journal Entry will describe the conditions for successfully resolving the issue, as well as the conditions that will cause immediate failure. China must avoid at all costs enacting the Free Trade law as well as resist the attempts of the Great Powers to establish a Treaty Port - both of these are potential war goals which the AI will strongly prioritize when starting Diplomatic Plays against China. While resisting the Western powers, China must maintain a total ban on the Opium trade.


Playing as Great Britain (or any major opium exporter), you'll have the opportunity to thwart the opium ban through all the usual diplomatic and coercive means at your disposal. It could even be an opportunity to make inroads into China.
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China’s attempts to halt the flow of opium will not go unchallenged. All Great and Major powers exporting Opium to China will receive an event prompting them to decide their stance on the matter - though there is some chance that they will let the issue slide, it is much more likely that they will take an opposing stance. This will add the Opium Wars Journal Entry to that country, in which their success conditions match the failure conditions for China. Opium-trading countries must either force China to adopt the Free Trade law, or else acquire a Treaty Port in that nation that allows them to bypass goods bans. Rather than immediately creating a Diplomatic Play with predefined war goals, the AI (and indeed the player!) is strongly encouraged to start a Play with wargoals that would complete the Journal Entry.


Free from the ravages of opium addiction and the interference of froeign powers, the strengthened Qing dynasty might avoid or avert the crises that would historically bring them to ruin.
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If China succeeds in suppressing the flow of opium while withstanding the onslaught of the Great Powers, the course of history is altered and the addiction crisis will be resolved. All its primary cultures will lose their Opium Obsession, and the negative modifiers representing the effects of widespread addiction will be removed. With foreign powers repulsed, China has not been forced into the unequal treaties that would lead to further conflict and turmoil.


Fragile Unity is the “broadest” Journal Entry in Victoria 3, encompassing content that can emerge at all stages of the game - for instance while the stage is already set for the Opium Wars in 1836, the Boxer Rebellion will not happen until later in the game when a stronger sense of Han nationalism has appeared.
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Failure, however, may have dire consequences. The government will lose Legitimacy, Radicals will rise across the nation, and Turmoil will engulf your states. But that is not the worst of it; failing the Opium Wars Journal Entry increases your fragmentation, tracked by the Fragile Unity Journal Entry. If your fragmentation rises to 100%, it will herald the end of a unified China, with the nation breaking up into a dozen warlord states. Failing the Opium Wars Journal Entry will indirectly lead to an influx of missionaries into China which may spark radical uprisings on a scale never seen before. And if exploitative foreign presence in China continues into the era of Han nationalism, the people’s demands for sovereignty will shake the foundations of the state and threaten the survival of the Qing Dynasty. One great failure can lead to a chain reaction of disaster.

That’s all for today! Next week we’ll be moving on from trade to a month of focus on the theme of strife. Join us next week where Mikael Andersson will introduce Victoria 3’s Revolutions.
 

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I mean, yeah there were individual daimyos, but it was also ruled under the central government of the Shogunate. It's not like the situation at the beginning of EUIV where everyone was at war with each other, there basically weren't any wars from 1600 to the beginning of the Meiji Restoration, iirc.

The end of the Bakumatsu was rife with struggles between the Shogunate at the Daimyos, alliances between those said Daimyos, and the manipulation of the feudal system by reformers ended up breaking that said system down.

Heck, I'd argue that one of the main triggers of the Boshin War was the Shogunate defeat in the second punitive attack on Chōshū. This event would be difficult to simulate in game without presenting Japan as a collective of feudal states.

At the same time, I understand that Paradox may not want to create a variety of small countries in Japan that have almost no chance of actually surviving long term, and that they might end up being a bit of a noob trap. It isn't ridiculous to not include them, but I still wish they would.
 
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If there is anything that EU4 did correctly, it was separating the typical mission trees and disasters away from each other.

It seems that Imperator (and subsequently Victoria 3) have regressed in this regard.

Oh well
 
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A historical question - could somebody knowledgeable please explain - why China did not grow its own opium?
Very very much not a historian, but im fairly sure the chinese didnt ctualy want opium in their country, AT ALL. But the brits grew a ton of it in india and they neede a way to counterbalance all the chinese goods they were buying so they started shipping massive amounts into China. (Very dumbed down and probably not all true summry though)
 
This dev diary positively surprised me, because i wouldn't expect dev diary explaining already explored mechanics to be this interesting. Btw, i think that opium debuff should be slowly fading away once China bans it, and fully expires after "the end of addiction" event, instead of instant effect. It would be much more realistic this way because it would represent different stages of recovery, different time it takes to recover for different people and gradual destruction of existing opium stockpiles
This should be for all negative effects and some positive effects imo.
 
If there is anything that EU4 did correctly, it was separating the typical mission trees and disasters away from each other.

It seems that Imperator (and subsequently Victoria 3) have regressed in this regard.

Oh well
I have never played EU4 or Imperator Rome, so would you please explain what you would do to make this system better? (Genuine question, I'm not mocking you or anything.)
 
Bonus screenshot: a divided China

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(as always, WIP)

A minor quirk - Why is southern Hunan part of Guangxi though? And also, that internal Sichuan border....
Looks like the map is based on Victoria 2, because it had those errors. I hope the map (especially provincial borders) will be reworked before release.

I like the new event/journal system. Involving multiple nations in the same crisis at the same time was rare in old games. Provided that it is dynamic, its much better than the static mission system from EU4 and Imperator.
 
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Brazilian culture should totally start with coffee as cultural obsession. We still do, to this day.
 
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Brazilian culture should totally start with coffee as cultural obsession. We still do, to this day.
Growing and exporting, sure. But consumption, not really. Brazil doesn't have significantly more consumption of it per capita than say Germany or Canada, and I doubt you could justify giving German or Canadian cultures obsessions with coffee. The Brazilian incentive to produce coffee should be its ability to dominate the global coffee trade as it did, not because of culture or local consumption.
 
I don’t have exact numbers for 19th century coffee consumption, but Brazilians did consume a lot more back then than nowadays. I think nowadays Brazil is 10th per capta but 2nd in overall consumption.
 
Couple of questions on Fragile Unity.

1: Can fracturing go negative? If you beat the Opium Wars with no prior fracturing, will it go to -20%?
2: If China warlordizes, will you be able to choose a side or are you stuck with what's left of GQ?

(Go bankrupt building up a modern, self-sufficient industrial state in Manchuria, then discard the collapsing Qing, conquer Korea and come out stronger than the wreckage of China you left.)
 
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I have never played EU4 or Imperator Rome, so would you please explain what you would do to make this system better? (Genuine question, I'm not mocking you or anything.)
Disasters were a series of events and buffs/debuffs that would present opportunities to neighboring or overseas countries to exploit for themselves for or against you, whereas mission trees (except for a couple) presented opportunities for your country to grow and gain bonuses internally. This has now been mixed up and I'll bet will lead to some sketchy design decisions down the years.
 
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Disasters were a series of events and buffs/debuffs that would present opportunities to neighboring or overseas countries to exploit for themselves for or against you, whereas mission trees (except for a couple) presented opportunities for your country to grow and gain bonuses internally. This has now been mixed up and I'll bet will lead to some sketchy design decisions down the years.
Interesting, I think there are some remnants of this in the disaster specific journals like "The Great Molasses Flood" seen in an earlier dev diary unless I missed what they were completely but I can see your point that it is more confusing with these buffs and debuffs combined into a single thing.
 
Disasters were a series of events and buffs/debuffs that would present opportunities to neighboring or overseas countries to exploit for themselves for or against you, whereas mission trees (except for a couple) presented opportunities for your country to grow and gain bonuses internally. This has now been mixed up and I'll bet will lead to some sketchy design decisions down the years.
Well, they are mission trees. The journal doesn't appear to have any structure beyond what a scripter places there. Can they really be compared?
 
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A historical question - could somebody knowledgeable please explain - why China did not grow its own opium?

They did! At least in several areas. After the opium wars, local administrators came to rely on opium taxes and domestic opium production. In some places opium even became an ad hoc currency! By the start of the 20th century imperial efforts to curtail opium production was not primarily opposed by the British, but by the local farmers who relied on opium sales to survive.

The cultivation of opium was finally stamped out by the communists after the conclusion of the Civil War.
 
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At the same time, I understand that Paradox may not want to create a variety of small countries in Japan that have almost no chance of actually surviving long term, and that they might end up being a bit of a noob trap. It isn't ridiculous to not include them, but I still wish they would.
Well, they're not opposed to this in principle because that's exactly what Germany looks like at game start, but at the same time, it hardly seems right to say the situations in Germany and Japan were the same. Japan was essentially one country, just one with vigorous disagreements about who's running it.

But, since the dev diaries seem to be swinging around (finally!) to the topic of revolutions and other internal affairs, maybe they'll explain in more detail how this is modeled?
 
They're working within the confines of computationally viable model where adding another variable to track culture location will results in thousands of extra checks considering cultures will be migrating all over the world. Victoria 3 is not going to be a perfect simulation of society and simplifications like this are to be expected. It's game after all, not a academic simulation ran on super computers.
If adding a check for parameters that already exists in the model and causes an increased demand modifier to be applied fewer times is not used because of performance reasons, we should be very worried about the performance of the game...

Of course it's not going to be a perfect simulation. It's not going to be a simulation at all, and it never was going to be. Most players knows that, and the devs knows that, but they still chose to state that making 'society sim' is the vision of the game.

Does not having it mean the game is no longer actually a good society sim? Not even close.
In itself? No. Alongside dozens, or possibly hundreds of other design decisions they have made where they have chosen the easy solution? It absolutely does.

Would it be nice? Yes.
So why are you so upset by someone asking what you seem to agree is a legitimate question?

The answer is more likely that they wanted to illustrate Chinese immigrants bringing with them increased opiate consumption to the USA (and probably other countries) compared to the rest of the population, but that the migration mechanic for example does not allow for such modifiers to be carried over. Personally I generally don't enjoy global mechanics being used to model specific cases like this, it tends to lead to very silly situations.
 
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I'm not sure the game can handle what should be interest groups having violent disagreements internal to them, because while the nobility had disagreements, they'd all, I think, end up as part of the Landowners IG, or at least be very predisposed towards that.

The new rebellion and frontline mechanics can in theory handle such a conflict, but some Japan specific fiddling with national politics might be needed to handle things like the Meiji Restoration.
 
If there is anything that EU4 did correctly, it was separating the typical mission trees and disasters away from each other.
If there is one thing EU4 did very wrong, it was to introduce mission trees in the first place. It is an abomination that fortunately seems to be avoided in Vic 3. Mission trees serves two purposes, and have ever since they were introduced: Sell DLCs and railroad playthroughs.

Disasters were a series of events and buffs/debuffs that would present opportunities to neighboring or overseas countries to exploit for themselves for or against you, whereas mission trees (except for a couple) presented opportunities for your country to grow and gain bonuses internally. This has now been mixed up and I'll bet will lead to some sketchy design decisions down the years.
EU4 disasters are basically the same as some of the Vic 3 journal entries. The most significant difference is that EU4 requires the additional 'skill' of knowing how to find the information about them in the wiki/game files to understand how to avoid them or resolve some of them, instead of having the information presented in game. The Castilian Civil War disater in EU4 is a prime example of how to not design disasters. If you get it at the wrong time it will can pretty much ruing your run, unless you go to the the game files/wiki (https://eu4.paradoxwikis.com/Castilian_Civil_War), and if you replay it you still don't really have any idea of what you could do better to resolve it unless you check the wiki/game files first. To top it all off, the game suggests playing Castille for new players!
 
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