Werewolf CXLIX: Dwarves!

[johho888]

GM AAR Part 6 Days 12-15​

Day 12 and Night 12
Village lynched muttoneer2 the outed cultist
Ruby was set to hunt trespoe the cultist but changed their mind to Lemeard the villager
Priest scanned trespoe the cultist
Infiltrator scanned noone
GA protected the priest
Padre stayed with the ex-seer

Hunt tamius23, Backup Falc, Backup Cliges

Let's leverage a lynch on Adamus2 or aedan777 now. Paendrag we can always hunt next time, but clearing out the confirmed goodies is top priority now.

Finally they go for the JL!

Day 13 and Night 13
Village lynched trespoe the outed cultist infiltrator - I wonder if Golden could have saved him with all their leader traits? Probably wise not to attempt it but it might have worked.
Golden hunted tamius23 the SA padre
Priest scanned Ciryandor the werewolf
Infiltrator was set to scan Adamus2 the brutal werewolf - if only he had done this yesterday instead of forgetting to scan, Golden could have saved him today and gotten esemesas promoted to King. That is if the figured out brutal=wolf.
GA protected the Eternaly_Lost the werewolf - Wait, what? or is he giving up because of all the weird hunt targets the wolves have picked lately?
Padre was set to stay with Paendrag the villager but got eaten himself

For what it worth, I think Adamus is the last red wolf, just my gut feeling. Also, something needs to be done with Cliges, paen, and falc as they are most cleared.

Running out of ideas again...

Is it okay if I just go back to the standing order? Would you prefer an updated list of who I haven't scanned yet, or have you kept track of that in a spreadsheet or something?

I know who you have been scanning so going back to the standing order is no problem. muttoneer2/reis91 is next on line unless you send in an updated scan order.

muttoneer2/reis91 is a cultist!

trespoe is a cultist!

See, things are going much better when you aren't even trying!

GM is mocking the priest.

Day 14 and Night 14
Village lynched Adamus2 the last Ruby werewolf
Adamus brutalized the priest
Golden was set to hunt the priest but instead had to use their backup list and the attacked Panedrag the villager
GA was set to protect the priest but instead protected his backup Paendrag the villager and saved him - Great minds think alike?

I was running some numbers and here what I got.

Assuming that we do have the next two leaders (as I got the impression from the pack PMs.) We do not need to even hunt to win the game any more.

The game is currently 5-3 in the village favor.

We have leader so we just all vote for the same person and give a leader order to lynch him. He will be lynched no matter what (We control 3 out of 8 votes, no way can that person have less then 1/3 of the person with the most votes (5 against us, so he need to have only 1 vote on him for the leader to not be able to lynch him.) ). There is no anti-lynching power.

We don't risk hunting at night. (Automatic no hunt and no risk of a hunter killing us, does not matter if we hit a bless or a cursed.)

Game is 4-3, we all vote the same and Leader Lynch again.

Game is 3-3, we win.

If there is a hunter still alive, the game is not over in the case he does send in a hunt order against us (more so if he hunts the new leader)

But, given what has died so far, there might not be. johho888 is the only one that could make the call, but from what I am looking at, it looks like we no longer need to hunt to win the game. Just use our two leaders and lynch our way to victory.

There is ways that we could lose packmates (Brutal for example) but if there is no brutal or hunters left, the Village can literally not win unless we go out of the way to kill ourselves.

If we only have 1 leader, we need a successful hunt tonight to win.

Golden pack realizes they have won.

Day 15 and Night 15
Village tried to lynch esemesas the werewolf and 2nd in command
esemesas leaderlynched the GA
Golden hunted jpr123 the villager
GA was set to protect the the ex-seer but was eaten

Forgot this little gem from early in the game when Adamus2 includes one of his packmates in this standing brutal order but then sadly realizes his mistake (GM is as always hoping someone will do something like that so he can put it in the AAR).

Sorry my bad completely forgot to set one
brutalize cliges, Back up euro, BU lemeard, BU son of liberty.

Yeah delete sol from that. Haha.

 

[johho888]

So did LightsShadows know who I was? Because I didn't know he was the GA until the game finished.

I don't think anyone knew until you outed yourself in the thread but maybe I just wasn't cc:ed on any JL PMs about you.

 

[johho888]

The thing is, and I believe I said something like this before, we need to figure out what we want cultists to be.

Are they Light Wolves, baddies that count for parity but don't hunt?

Are they a tactic to weaken the JL, by making single scans unreliable?

Both concepts require different implementations and the problems stem from the fact we seem to be trying to do both.

For me the primary purpose of cultists is that, unlike in a Lite game, a single seer scan isn't enough to clear someone so it's much harder to get a JL going and once one of seer/priest is dead it is harder to be certain of anything but by that time there should be enough bits and pieces known so a village can puzzle things out anyway.

The fact that cultists count for parity is secondary at best - if that is what we want then we might as well have more wolves.

Something else that you shouldn't overlook is that the unalligned cultists is as a way to balance two pack setups. It's much harder for a wolfpack to destroy all other baddies than just all other wolves.

 

[LightsShadows]

I didn't know who tamius was until he outed himself, and Falc asked me to protect him that day (although I would have likely done that anyway).

And it's nice to know I actually saved someone.

 

[Falc]

So did LightsShadows know who I was? Because I didn't know he was the GA until the game finished.

I think he did but rather late. I remember telling Cliges and one of you to try and save the other one when the votes were going south on them...

 

[tamius23]

Thanks for the excellent GM AAR, johho!

While I'm here, I should say WW CL is up and taking sign-ups.

 

[Ciryandor]

Once Padre was outed we wanted to hit him first because we feared getting spotted and outed more, as Cultists were dropping like flies. The Priest could be conveniently ignored by then, to be blunt.

 

[marty99]

For me the primary purpose of cultists is that, unlike in a Lite game, a single seer scan isn't enough to clear someone so it's much harder to get a JL going and once one of seer/priest is dead it is harder to be certain of anything but by that time there should be enough bits and pieces known so a village can puzzle things out anyway.

I'm just wondering...how often do seers contact people they have cleared as non-wolves? Would it be correct to say more than half? I'm quite curious.

 

[Cliges]

I felt that I my only good option was to contact the first non-wolf I found. Though my tenure as seer was brief, I am glad that the person didn't turn out to be cultist or sorc. Things would have went a lot better for the village if only I had been able to keep my role a little longer.

 

[reis91]

Interestingly enough, I dunno if it was a factor or not in Ruby pack decision making, but it might appear that they preferred to try to nail the other pack instead of the obvious goodies. Yes, things like GA and other stuff may dissuade them from going to the most obvious goodies (Cliges and later Falc), but Tamius and Paendrag were fair targets.

This might be rationally explained as follows: "if we get rid of the other pack, their cultists might decide to sell them out and join us, giving us overall control of the baddie side of things. If we don't, and get dropped down low, our cultists may think of doing the exact same thing to the benefit of the other pack." A classical example of a Nash's equilibrium, if I ever saw one in WW.

I do find this kind of reasoning a great thing to have in the game, actually, instead of the usual focus on whoever is stronger, with a tendency to try to get the other pack's baddies lynched rather than hunted, for goodie cred. It's a shame that it makes a boring game for the cultists under this ruleset, unless the wolves decide to be kind play suboptimally.

 

[marty99]

I felt that I my only good option was to contact the first non-wolf I found. Though my tenure as seer was brief, I am glad that the person didn't turn out to be cultist or sorc. Things would have went a lot better for the village if only I had been able to keep my role a little longer.

Right, that's one data point. Any seers want to add their experiences here? Or anyone who remembers a seer contacted a seer-scanned player. I'll add in the condition early in the game, as in one of the first people you scanned.

 

[marty99]

Interestingly enough, I dunno if it was a factor or not in Ruby pack decision making, but it might appear that they preferred to try to nail the other pack instead of the obvious goodies. Yes, things like GA and other stuff may dissuade them from going to the most obvious goodies (Cliges and later Falc), but Tamius and Paendrag were fair targets.

This might be rationally explained as follows: "if we get rid of the other pack, their cultists might decide to sell them out and join us, giving us overall control of the baddie side of things. If we don't, and get dropped down low, our cultists may think of doing the exact same thing to the benefit of the other pack." A classical example of a Nash's equilibrium, if I ever saw one in WW.

I do find this kind of reasoning a great thing to have in the game, actually, instead of the usual focus on whoever is stronger, with a tendency to try to get the other pack's baddies lynched rather than hunted, for goodie cred. It's a shame that it makes a boring game for the cultists under this ruleset, unless the wolves decide to be kind play suboptimally.

Interesting post, it wasn't our strategy as long as were alive (we had no way of knowing the other pack or even really estimating) but then again I didn't live that long.
Is it really a Nash Equilibirum, though? I'm really quite doubtful it is.

 

[aedan777]

Right, that's one data point. Any seers want to add their experiences here? Or anyone who remembers a seer contacted a seer-scanned player. I'll add in the condition early in the game, as in one of the first people you scanned.

In my second big I was seer and contacted johho day one. He told me it was a little risky. I was hunted that night, but Johho wasn't a cultist it was dumb luck and the village lost two days later because innkeeper.

 

[reis91]

Interesting post, it wasn't our strategy as long as were alive (we had no way of knowing the other pack or even really estimating) but then again I didn't live that long.
Is it really a Nash Equilibirum, though? I'm really quite doubtful it is.

Ok, there is one major assumption made there, that the packs have some information on each other. There is one other, to this specific setup, which is cultists being able to sell out their masters or other members of the pack that get in touch with them. Paranoid packs might not confide in their cultists so unless they are forced to do so (although the wolf master is always subject to sellouts.

If that is true, and packs aren't too numerous in proportion to their cultists, then the equilibrium holds. It becomes highly advantageous to drop wolves in the other pack, even in situations where the village is somewhat strong (thus ensuring poorer outcomes for both packs at the equilibrium point). Whoever tries to move from that equilibrium position by leaving the other pack alone becomes more liable to being sold out as their numbers dwindle in face of the other pack. As an added bonus, the sorcerer is usually keener to side with the stronger pack.

 

[marty99]

In my second big I was seer and contacted johho day one. He told me it was a little risky. I was hunted that night, but Johho wasn't a cultist it was dumb luck and the village lost two days later because innkeeper.

Thanks. Keep 'em coming, guys.


If anyone's wondering why, I want to find out the frequency of seers (and priests to a certain extent) contacting single-scanned players early in the game (at least, early enough before there is other information revealed sufficient to give them a clue about who's who). Because, if it happens regularly, and I suspect it does, it sort of doesn't really work the way johho intends it.

If seers contact players who might be cultists regularly, there either will be a strong JL set up very quickly and the village will be in a stronger position, or he will contact a cultist, get hunted quickly and the village will be screwed a lot of the time.
This might balance out over many games in terms of win ratios, because the second scenario shifts the balance more in favour of a side than the first, but is also rarer (ratio of cultists to non-cultists).
However, in a single game it polarizes. The seer contacting the player shifts the balance significantly to one side.

It doesn't, on average, make it 'harder to get the JL going', 90% of the time it has no effect. The other 10% it completely cripples it.

Ok, there is one major assumption made there, that the packs have some information on each other. There is one other, to this specific setup, which is cultists being able to sell out their masters or other members of the pack that get in touch with them. Paranoid packs might not confide in their cultists so unless they are forced to do so (although the wolf master is always subject to sellouts.

If that is true, and packs aren't too numerous in proportion to their cultists, then the equilibrium holds. It becomes highly advantageous to drop wolves in the other pack, even in situations where the village is somewhat strong (thus ensuring poorer outcomes for both packs at the equilibrium point). Whoever tries to move from that equilibrium position by leaving the other pack alone becomes more liable to being sold out as their numbers dwindle in face of the other pack. As an added bonus, the sorcerer is usually keener to side with the stronger pack.

Oh, I see!
I was thinking of it the other way, where they both started out targeting the village, and one side changes strategy to target the other pack. Right.

 

[reis91]

I usually, as a Seer, try to avoid contacting players unless I absolutely have to. If I have to, then I may approach it in various manners, in order to minimize risk, I just don't come up straight "Hey, I'm the Seer, here's my scanlist, out this guy" (unless I am bluffing, of course).

There are various ways to nudge the game in your favor with the information gotten by the scans. Some of them became famous, like the chain letters, others are less elaborate, but still work great (coughing up analysis against a player to get the village to lynch him, deflecting attention from your non-baddie scanees into other people, etc. Directly contacting people early on, like marty points out, is high risk, and usually moderate reward (unless by luck you stumbled upon a protector or you get linked with the priest).

 

[Cliges]

I have, truth be told, little experience as seer or any other important goodie roles. I think I was seer once before in a game with few players sometime in summer, and I was GA or doctor once before being hunted very early.

 

[Falc]

As far as I know, early contact only happens to inexperienced players (my first Big as scanner) or when they're put under pressure from an early-game run-up.

 

[johho888]

I'm just wondering...how often do seers contact people they have cleared as non-wolves? Would it be correct to say more than half? I'm quite curious.

In Big? Very rarely and almost only when it's a newbie seer.

Usually the seer doesn't contact anyone until he has a wolf to out. Or if the priest got there first and then after the seer has cleared the priest's spokesperson.

Once the seer has a spokesperson he usually communicates only through him until later in the game when enough trust has built and he might talk directly with the priest and GA/doc or however else in the JL core remains.

Of course the seer might talk to all kind of people via PMs if you are that kind of player only then pretending to be a villager.

As far as I know, early contact only happens to inexperienced players (my first Big as scanner) or when they're put under pressure from an early-game run-up.

EDIT: Forgot about the seer-being-run-up. Yeah, that happens too.

 

[esemesas]

Werewolf Lite CCLXXIII: Purgatory​

​

Plot

Well, you done went and got yourself killed. What happened? Wife finally snapped after you told her about the third bastard? Yeah, doesn't look too good for you. But don't worry, you weren't that bad of a person. We're giving you another chance at Purgatory. Just, uh, be careful. We're, um, having some problems at the moment...​