The Seventies, a contradictory decade: a fragile balance of powers
The Congress of Berlin (1878)
The Congress of Berlin (1878)
The first half of '70s does not record particular diplomatic events about Italy. The alliance with France sanctioned at Plombières in 1859 and that with Greece (dating back to 1857) have been periodically renewed without troubles, even if the Hellenic partners have been somewhat disappointed by the new policy of proximity with the Ottoman Empire inaugurated by Foreign Minister Cairoli, whose mark on the Italian foreign policy would be really strong along the entire decade. Aiming at counterbalancing Austro-Hungarian supremacy in the Balkans and French expansionism in the Mediterranean (despite the renewal of the Franco-Italian alliance pact in 1872, frictions between the two allies about North Africa would rapidly mount after the Italian conquest of Tunisia), Cairoli seeks to build a wider diplomatic network for Italy in order to break the traditional, and maybe a bit limitative, pro-French attitude and contribute to the fragile balance of powers. For such reasons, friendly liaisons with the Ottoman Empire (which will eventually evolve in the mutual exchange of military technology during the Russo-Turkish War) and United Kingdom (culminating in the Anglo-Italian alliance of 1880) are established.
The Balkan Question
The Balkan Question is the diplomatic affair of the decade: ignited by the anti-Ottoman revolts in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Bulgaria in 1876, a vast Pan-Slavic front clusters against the Turkish domination in the region in the following months. Russia encourages Serbia and Montenegro to declare war on Ottoman Empire in summer 1876 but a temporary armistice ensues because of the intervention of European powers. Divergence among the various parties soon emerges: as testified by Czar Alexander II's 11th November speech, Russia sees itself as protector of all the Orthodox Balkan principalities, Austria-Hungary tries to extend its power in the region in a dangerous conflict of interests with both Russia and Italy. On the other side, Prussia and Italy are close friends to the Ottoman Empire (Prussia has even signed an alliance pact), Britain and France – as they did during the Crimean War – are ready to oppose with any measure the Russian attempts to gain access to the Mediterranean Sea. A conference held in Istanbul in December 1876 fails and the word returns to arms. Russia and Serbia sign an alliance on 17 January 1877 and three months later declare war on the Ottomans and Prussia. Other four interested powers stay at the window to avoid a major continental conflict, with Italy and Britain strongly supportive to Turkey, Austria-Hungary to Russia (a secret agreement between Saint Petersburg and Wien foresees in case of Russian victory an Austro-Hungarian protectorate over Bosnia-Herzegovina) and France coldly neutral because of its jealousy of the Turkish-Prussian cooperation.
[From a game perspective, at this specific moment of time, Italy has very good relationship with France (ally), Greece (ally) and Ottoman Empire, good with Britain and Argentina, neutral with Spain, Portugal, Scandinavia and USA, negative with Russia and Prussia, very bad with Austria-Hungary and Papal States].
The war lasts only six months because the pressure posed by Turkey (well-armed by its "Western" friends) and Prussia causes a terrible blow to the badly prepared and equipped Czarist troops. Two counteroffensives led by von Moltke in Poland and Ahmed Muhtar Pasha in Caucasus manage to advance well inside Russian territory and hold their positions despite numerous unsuccessful and bloodily Russian attempts. Under pressure because of the disappointing course of war and the enormous losses, Russia signs the Preliminary Treaty of San Stefano (13th October 1877) which imposes the cessation of Western Poland to Prussia and Armenia to Ottoman Empire, with Alexander II asking pathetically for an international conference to settle the Balkan issue and the Turkish expansionism towards Persia, the Czar's ally in the Middle East area. In fact, three weeks after the Preliminary Treaty of San Stefano Russia would intervene in support of Persia against Turkey and lose a second war, with Persia forced to cede some border provinces to the Ottomans in February 1878, just few months before of the scheduled beginning of the Congress of Berlin, where the reunited Great Powers ratify the negotiations of San Stefano.
Thus, under the chairmanship of a victorious Bismarck (in eleven years Austria-Hungary, France and Russia have experienced the brutal force of the Prussian troops), Prussia, Britain, Austria-Hungary, France, Russia, Italy and the Ottoman Empire convene at Berlin in June-July 1878 to ratify San Stefano and settle open issues in the most renowned congress of the century after that of Wien (1815). Supported by the Prussian, Italian and British delegates, the Ottoman Empire is able to convince that the Balkan nationalism is a menace to the peace in Europe. A humiliated Russia sees its own borders receding in two vital areas as Poland and Caucasus but at least its Balkan friends (Serbia, Montenegro, Romania) preserve their territorial integrity and Austria-Hungary renounces to its goals in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
The scramble for Africa and Anglo-Italian entente
The scramble for Africa is the unresolved issue of the Congress of Berlin: with Russia, USA and France respectively focused on their expansion efforts in Central Asia (annexation of Kokand, 1873), Central America (Mexico and California are repeatedly defeated in a series of minor skirmishes, 1869-76) and Indian Ocean (annexation of Annam, 1873, and vassallisation of Luang Prabang, 1877), the Black Continent would witness since 1879 an intense colonial activity of Prussia in its Atlantic coasts, followed to a lesser extent by United Kingdom in the Western and Southern part, Italy in the Horn of Africa and Ottoman Empire in the Sahara region (further details on Italian colonisation follow in the dedicated section). For now, it is enough to stress the impact of colonial expansionism of the four powers which apparently got the upper hand at Berlin (Prussia, Ottoman Empire and – to a lesser extent – Britain and Italy) has on diplomacy, because it will be the cause of a long series of conflicts, as the Franco-British War colonial war initiated by the invasion of Madagascar and the continuous tension among various interested parties on the fate of Morocco and Tunis will symbolise.
The latter draws our attention because it's the cause of increasing Franco-Italian divergences (and Anglo-Italian convergences): due to different views expressed at Berlin and the conflicting interests over Morocco and Tunis, the renewal of the Franco-Italian alliance (expected in 1878) fails. The affaire Rubattino (an Italian railway concessionaire for the city of Tunis damaged by French underhand manoeuvres) and the French invasion of Madagascar in February 1880 (opposed by Britain) further exacerbate the situation and convince Prime Minister Cairoli to accept Disraeli' offer for an Anglo-Italian alliance pact (25th April 1880). Economic influence in Morocco is much more contended among various parties and the mutual vetoes at the moment allows it to maintain a shaky independence which will be guaranteed by the Conference of Madrid (June 1880) attended by Britain, France, Spain, USA and Italy. On the other side the French invasion of Tunis and the establishment of a protectorate over the city (Bardo Treaty, 1881) would provoke vibrant Italian protests and a serious rearmament.
Italy switches alliance from France to Britain
PS. Don't worry about the apparently not consistent good relation with France shown in this post ... the Bardo Treaty event will have it plummeting!
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