This is not a thread for historical debate, take that to the OT history forums. Keep it a nice fun thread on the ahistorical quirks that EU3 throws up.
Swap in Sweden for Denmark and TO for Poland-Lithuania, then we got an approximately real story.Despite denmark being weak and small country, it attacked powerfull teutonic order, allied with great russian power, and despite their powerfull fleet, they managed to be defeated at their own land, by muscowy, led by the great general, who soon quickly unified russia under one banner.
lolit turns out that the chinese can't establish trade or colonise new lands unless you first castrate the members of their government.
One of the main history oddity it's that between the 15 and 19 century all but one single nation could send their fleets across the ocean without any damage due weather or supplies.