Its 1869 and the scramble is about to start. I have all the 3 techs required, but the invention "Colonial Negotiations" has not fired yet. In order to have it fire, it looks like there are 3 techs that increase the likelyhood of it happening by 25% each: one military (Machine Guns), one Naval (Naval Logistics) and one Commercial (something like Reliable Economics). Which of the three is the best to start researching in 1870? Is it just player's prefernce or is there a logic behind it?