Well, I had some mock exams today (I'm in my final year at school) so naturally had plenty of time to think up an alternative timeline for Ireland. I'm not familiar with ALL of the Kaiserreich timeline, but what I have here should at least be consistant with the original pages. So here's a rough timeline for your approval, I'll sort out exact dates and names later (sorry that it's so long):
1921: Peace between Irish rebels and British govt, and a treaty, with the following terms -- all of Ireland to be ceded to rebels; the new country to be established will be named the "Irish Free State"; an oath must be sworn by incoming TDs (Irish MPs) to the British Crown; three ports will remain under British control indefinitely; the Irish Free State will remain part of the British Empire; and the King will remain the Head of State [basically this is the regular treaty, with the exception of partition. My view is that a Britain embroiled on the Continent for another three years and without American support would be far more willing to sell out Unionists in Northern Ireland than she was in OTL].
After the signing of the treaty in December by Collins, Griffith and the rest of the treaty delegation (de Valera being inconveniently absent in America), the Free State is established on January 1, 1922. Collins is proclaimed interim leader of the Free State in de Valera's absence.
Insurgency breaks out as both the IRA [severely reduced from OTL, since the lack of partition means only the most die-hard, psychotic members who are willing to kill over an oath are left] and the UVF begin bombing campaigns. The UVF attacks targets in Ulster and Dublin, while the IRA attacks both military targets and civilians that it sees as collaborationists. Since the only real overlap between these groups is in Dublin, attacks in the capital often have ambiguous perpetrators. One such attack is the bombing of Clery's department store on Sackville Street, Dublin, resulting in the deaths of fifty-three civilian shoppers.
The anti-Treatyite IRA's support plummets as the public begins to view them as traitors in the threat of the UVF terrorist campaign. Eamonn de Valera returns from America and on the same day, misjudging the general mood, gives a speech on the steps of the GPO where he criticises the Treatyites and appears to praise the anti-Treatyite IRA's campaign. That night, he is arrested by a unit of anti-terrorist police led by Garda Commissioner Eoin O'Duffy, on the personal orders of Michael Collins. He is tried for treason for his contacts with anti-Treatyite IRA forces and hanged within the week. There is little discord among a war-weary public, angry at de Valera's absence and destabilising of the young State.
The IRA formally surrender on 2nd Ferbruary, 1923, after summary executions by O'Duffy's anti-terrorist squads throughout the Winter. The UVF remains a threat but restricts its campaign to Ulster on logistical grounds. There will be no formal declaration of surrender but its influence weakens over time as Loyalists leave Ireland for Britain and Canada. Order is restored, and (with Griffith now dead from natural causes) Collins is seen as the father of Irish independence. His suspicion of Britain is untempered by its defeat at Germany's hands, and Collins pursues a policy of armament and friendly relations with the great powers.
1925: As the Union of Britain is proclaimed, Collins declares the Anglo-Irish Treaty to be null and void. Collins' government drafts a constitution and declares the death of the Irish Free State, and the birth of the Republic of Ireland. Collins is now riding on a crest of public support, and proposes a Constitution which focuses power on the office of the President, who will be Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and have the power to propose and veto legislation. Sensing a dangerous consolidation of power, the Dáil, including most of Collins' own TDs, reject the draft constitution. Collins resigns in protest.
WT Cosgrave takes over as Taoiseach (Prime Minister). Exports to the autarky-obsessed Union of Britain decline, and the economy sinks into recession.
1927: Seán Lemass' Fianna Fail party takes over and over the next seven years, six different governments come to power. Ireland's political system is dangerously fragile, and her economy is in freefall as government after government attempts to industrialise the country. In the long term, these projects will prove to be moderately successful but in the short term they lead to increasing unemployment and higher taxes.
In the shadow of this instability is the spectre of the Irish Socialist Party, led by James Larkin and quietly supported by elements in the British government. Larkin, a veteran campaigner and agitator, has spent the last five years in Britain, working with the Trade Unionists to bring about a revolution. Now, aided with British money, Larkin has returned and united the threads of Socialism in Ireland -- the Bolsheviks, the Labour radicals, the Anarchists and the Syndicalists have put aside their differences in order to emulate their comrades in France and Britain. Larkin and his supporters begin a campaign of striking and agitation in Cork, Belfast and Dublin, the most heavily industrialised cities in the country. The Socialist Party makes impressive gains in elections between 1927 and 1934, though it does not win a majority or enter government.
1934: In October, a snap election is called by the beleguered Taioseach, Sean MacEntee. In a shock result, the Socialist Party wins a slim majority, thanks mostly to a united, minority Socialist vote prevailing over a split majority of their opponents. Archbishop John Charles McQuaid [this guy will be very important if Ireland goes Papalist] condemns the election, calling it rigged, and demands action against the "anti-Christian" Socialists. General O'Duffy, Chief of the National Guard [the army], states publicly that he will not follow orders given by a Socialist, and calls for "a figure of national unity" to come forward.
Michael Collins steps forward. Absent from public life for almost a decade, he speaks on national radio against the "British puppet" James Larkin, and calls for a return to the "values of 1916".
Larkin is accused by a leaked National Guard report of spying for Britain. A warrant for his arrest is issued but he manages to flee to Britain, along with his "government-in-exile", as he calls his inner circle. The National Guard sieze control of central Dublin and Belfast, which have descended into chaos and rioting.
Huge rallies of support for Collins are held, calling for him to be "drafted" into government. Collins happily obliges, promising to usher in a new era of stability and virtue. He is sworn in as President, and dissolves the Dáil within hours. Collins proposes his new draft constitution to the general pubic, which enshrines the Catholic Church's authority into law and invests supreme control in the President. The constitution also enshrines the President's powers to exercise emergency powers. The constitution is passed by more than 70% of the population, and Collins swiftly declares a state of "economic, political and moral" emergency. Michael Collins has become dictator of the Second Republic.