Arilou said:
A lot of this is already modelled in the ausgleich events: There's a huge risk something will go "Kaboom!" in the Balkans.
That said, there should probably be an option for Hungary going it's own way but with a Habsburg king...
Yep true, the Ausgleich events already have these provisions, and also the ability to have a non-puppet Hungary with Otto still as Head of State - I think the option is called 'end Dualism' or 'independence with personal union.' I actually think that this is actually one of the more likely ends to the whole chain...
I actually think that general ideas about the doom of Austria-Hungary, the total resentment of all the consituent nationalities, and the inevitability of its collapse into national states are a bit overstated. You've got to remember that up until the First World War, there was
no significant political group in the monarchy which actually wanted its disintegration. The closest you'd get to this would be various Pan-Germanists or pan-Slavists (and also some Romanian irredentists), who wanted to join up with other existing states - and even these weren't really mass movements! Pretty much everyone who could be called a 'nationalist' generally wanted to bolster the position of their own group within the monarchy, rather than break the whole thing up into a number of vulnerable states
The case of Hungary is actually extremely interesting, as although it was involved in a number of 'national' struggles over the course of the 19th c., these were actually generally conducted in a context of reclaiming the historic rights of the Kingdom of Hungary, of which the Head of the House of Habsburg was still the legitimate King. Both the 1848 and 1868 conflicts were fought with this sort of aim in mind, and even though there was a Republic established briefly after the First World War, Horthy still found it convenient to rule officially as the 'Regent' for the legitimate Habsburg King throughout the 1920s and '30s.
You've got to remember that Otto I isn't just the Habsburg/Austrian oppressor - he is still the rightful King of Hungary, and I would see Hungarian nationalists as having absolutely no problem, possibly even favouring, the solution of a complete end of the limited Dualist political ties binding the two states of Austria and Hungary together (which in real life only amounted to a common customs, foreign and defence policy....), while keeping Otto as King of Hungary in a new political constitution (but in a role totally seperate from his other capacities as Emperor of Austria, King of Bohemia, Galicia, Lodomeria, Jerusalem, etc....). This may actually be a very good solution for radical Magyar nationalists, particularly if Otto continues to live in Vienna, as it would mean that they would have their powerless figurehead to keep the conservatives and legitimists happy, while still able to follow a totally independant domestic and foreign policy.
Another issue is the general 'political system' in this timeline - as there are actually no stable non-socialist Republics, any conservative or national movement, particularly one with ties to Germany, is going to be a bit reluctant to depose its Monarch -> This would be seen as something very strange and destabilising...