Chapter Zero
The Shifting Balance of Power
Chart 1: Total population of the powers, 1850-1897 (millions)
1850; 1860; 1870; 1880; 1890; 1897
France: 64.2; 69.3; 76.4; 63.5; 67.3; 71.2;
Germany: 16.5; 18.2; 24.4; 83.1; 90.7; 100.4;
Austria: 36.9; 36.0; 35.8; - - -
Britain: 27.2; 28.8; 31.3; 34.7; 37.5; 39.8
United States: 23.2; 31.4; 38.6; 49.4; 63.0; 73.3
Russia: 68.5; 74.1; 84.5; 97.7; 116.8; 132.9
Japan: 30.0; 31.3; 33.0; 35.9; 40.0; 43.0;
Italy: - - 28.2; 30.3; 32.4; 34.4;
Note: Only the population of France and Italy are ahistorical. Italy’s population has been given a ten-year time boost, for example, the population of 1870 should be of 1880, and so on. This is to stimulate the additional boost in population stimulated by French financed industrial growth. For France the total population for each timeline is reached by a somewhat complex equation, so it will not be thoroughly explained. However, the population of France is significantly more than it had historically. Aside from showing the boost of the Benelux and Italian population, it also shows that limited levels of industrialization (compared to Britain) in France that produced a small boom in population increase. From 1850 to 1870, Germany's population is represented by only of that of Prussia's. After 1870, Germany's population is represented by Germany and Austria-Hungary total population.
Chart 2: Per Capita Levels of Industrialization, 1897 (ic to millions of people ratio)
France 2.72 (194 / 71.2)
Germany 3.11 (312 / 100.4)
Britain 5.23 (208 / 39.8)
United States 4.19 (307 / 73.3)
Russia 1.05 (140 / 132.9)
Japan 1.35 (58 / 43.0)
Italy 1.72 (59 / 34.4)
Note: So as you all can see, Britain still has the highest per capita levels of industrialization, but her total industrial capacity has been eclipsed by those of Germany and United States. France not only lost to Germany in terms of total industrial capacity, but also of per capita level of industrialization, despite the fact that Germany’s large Slavic population greatly decreased her per capita level. Russia’s industrial capacity is still respectable, but most of her population remains largely untouched by the Industrial Revolution. Japan already has a higher per capita level than Russia, but for her to fulfill her ambition in the Far East, much more industrial strength and the ability to take advantage of the current situation of the Great Power System is needed.
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To France, the period starting from the end of the Franco-Prussian War to 1897 is marked by a series of decline and erosion of her hegemony over Europe and the World. The loss of Alsace-Lorraine and the Italian provinces, as well as control over Spain not only meant the loss of land and subjects, but also the loss of resources and markets for French products. The loss of territory for France meant that more than fifteen million subjects are loss to become part of the Reich and the Italian State, as well as some considerable deposits of iron and coal. Traditional French markets in Spain and Italy have been taken over by the flood of cheap but high quality goods of Germany, United States, and Great Britain, as a favorable tariff for France had been removed. Most French producers simply could not compete with their counterparts in the other industrialized nations due to the lack of efficiency resulted from the longtime lack of competition. Although notable exceptions such as Michelin and Schneider exist, compared to the German industrial giants of Krupp and Siemens, French companies are mostly small, operate with outdated practices and produce goods at a much higher price. One sign of the showing French industrial decline is that even France proper is now increasing dominated by and dependent upon foreign, and embarrassingly, German imports.
The newly emerged industrial powerhouses of Germany and the United States have long replaced France in terms of share in world manufacturing output. Britain, despite her own problem of slower rate of growth during the past decades, still managed to pull ahead of France in terms of industrial strength. Although rapid industrial growth still occurred in the regions of the Benelux and Northern France, France as a whole declined in industrial strength relatively to the others, as others are simply growing much faster. With French power being more and more eroded as time advances, the world of 1897 seem to have many challenges for France if she wants to regain her long lost hegemony and Gloire.
Overall, Germany and United States have now pulled ahead of other Great Powers in terms of Industrial Power, and have the very potential (and perhaps even the political wills) to shape the world into their likings. Traditional Great Powers of Britain, France, and Russia have definitely slipped to a lower position in the Great Power System, though all of them still possess considerable territorial possessions for them to draw resources upon. The United States, too, has large territories for her to draw resources for her ever resource-hungry industries. However, Germany only has a small colonial empire compared with her industrial potential. To satisfy her ever resource-hungry industries and economy, for Germany, the question is not whether should they expand or not, but where and how they will conquer and exploit the conquered. Whether the rest of the world, and especially France, can stand up to German challenge or not remains an open question.
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Another update done, although I know there are some problems. Yes, chart 1 is a bit hard to read, but I don't really know how to make it more clear for now. If time allows, I'll update chart 1 to make it more readable. Oh, and one more thing, the next update will move on to the real storyline.