Germany had so many allies during this war and depended so heavily on them that after everyone of them got some rewards for their contribution, there probably wouldn't be any neutral state left.
So, lets try to sort it out:
Sweden, Switzerland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Italy an Turkey were all important allies. They can rightfully demand to be included in the distribution of the spoils of war.
Portugal was another ally, but the whole Portuguese entry was such a poor decision that it resulted in a quick annexation. They have the dubious honor of being the only european nation the German AI couldn't protect from the Allies. :rofl: No reward here for such a poor token showing.
Croatia and Slovakia were puppets but still fought it out, so they should be rewarded with independence.
Was Ireland also in the axis? Well, they have Northern Ireland anyway.
The list of German enemies includes France, Spain, Serbia, Greece, Poland, Norway, the UK and Russia, of course. Finland switched sides and betrayed Germany to the Sovjets. A really unwise move. These states will have to fear for their existence now.
Sweden: They got Scandinavia and are probably the big winners of this war. The AAR seems to imply that Sweden in-universe also really won this on its accord and not because the German AI did stick up really well for its ally. A new Nazi-approved superpower in the making?
Well, I think they should also get Denmark (with the exception of Kolding, which "belonged" to Germany prior to the First World War), as well as their former colonies of Iceland and Greenland.
They could also absorb or puppet the traitorous Finnish.
Turkey: While I don't remember ever reading about any Turkish contribution during the war, they likely will have ambitions on restoring their empire after being victorious. They'll perhaps want to absorb Cyprus, Syria, Georgia, Lebanon, Iraq, etc. Turkey also would like to get its hands on Greece, which could be divided up between them and Italy.
Italy: Should get back Rhodes, the other Greek islands it owned and its French gains. They'll also still want to found their mediterrean empire, so they'll probably claim most islands like Malta, Crete, Corsica and perhaps even the Baleares. Their leaership will also be the axis nation which is the most interested in African expansions.
Finland: They lost the war three times, twice against Russia and once against Germany, yet astonishingly still gained territory out of Bitter Peace.
Plus, they backstabbed Germany. Their holdings should be reduced to pre-war levels at the very least, they certainly shouldn't own the port of Murmansk and their independence is questionable.
France: Some French are still fighting in Africa against Germany, that should count against them. Perhaps Flandern/Wallonia should get some of the border provinces, Italy should receive its claims in the South an Corsica and one major naval base on the Atlantic coast and one on the mediterrean could perhaps be handed over to German control. France is also the only oppurtunity if Switzerland is to gain any territory.
Spain: Could perhaps be broken up. There are a lot of secessionist regions in Spain. The Basque for example would also take some French territory with them.
Serbia: That rebellious nation would likely be divided up entirely by its neighbours.
As to Germany itself, that's a really difficult question. Just about every claim for border-changes can be made and even backed up by some historic facts (although I'm of course no expert in this matter. As usual in historic debates by laymen, the number of factual errors in my statements may well exceed the number of words used
).
Regarding Germany:
- the Baltic has former history of being under German control for a long time during the middle ages (Teutonic Knights). Many natives there might be loosely related to German people and accustomed with their culture. With the historic precedent, occupying that place may be the most peaceful route. This option perhaps also sits very well with the Germans themselves since they would still be living close (especially in terms of transportation via sea) to the heart of the Reich (Prussia).
-Poland would not be allowed into independence again for fear of revenge. The Polish people might once again be pushed around on the map as it was done by Stalin after the historic WW2 and be expelled further east into Belarus. That territory is perhaps the one which is most likely to be colonized by Germans.
-As has been said, Belarus isn't exactly the most idyllic place on earth. Most Germans, accustomed to living in a mild and moderate oceanic climate on orderly farmland which has been cultivated by men for thousands of years, would be extremely shocked if they were confronted with the inhospitable ground their troops conquered on their behalf and which they now are supposed to tame and farm. :rofl:
So that place would probably be left alone very soon. On the other hand, it is the most artificial of all the east european states and was never previously united in any form as a nation (I'm not sure if that is correct, though). So resistance against the Germans here may be very low.
-the Ukraine was considered to be Russia's breadbasket and may be a tempting goal for colonization. However, it is also very remote from German heartland and the population there would be fiercely hostile. Also, if Germany would grant Ukraine its independence, it could win a very loyal ally in the far East to hold down the Russians. The population of the Ukraine was most enthusiastic about escaping Sovjet rule and the quickest in forming a collaboration government for the Nazis - which was historically crushed just as quickly by a reliably lunatic Hitler. :wacko:
-another option is the entire Donau region, were many Germans had settled throughout the centuries in a planned integration program during the time of Austria-Hungary. There were significant German settlements troughout the entire region, all in all over one million people which are already there and could help the renewed German colonisation-efforts. Now, the nations here were all allies of Germany during the war apart from Serbia, but that wouldn't prevent them from being occupied if such a move was perceived as necessary - just as Germany occupied Hungary and Italy at the end of the historical war to keep them on their side.
-keeping control of and colonising the entire european part of Russia is entirely out of question. Any German ambition towards that goal was pure delusion. There just wouldn't be enough troops, especically after the nuclear war, to prevent the Russians from organising an uprising and protect all German settlers at the same time. So the formation of an independent Russia which only pays the minimum amount of lip-service to Berlin and serves as a buffer state is practically a given.
As to which if any of those options is feasible - who knows? :wacko: