So you can actually see what factors go into it by hovering over the number in the box... I... uh...
here's a picture.
View attachment 1127393
So the race is divided into 5 factors:
- Popularity of supporting IG (Legitimist, Orleanist, or Bonapartist) leaders
- Clout involved IGs (ones with aforementioned leaders).
- IG-Specific Building Levels.
- Government Legitimacy. (Higher helps the Orleanists, lower helps the Bonaparte/Legitimists)
- Events.
So how do we tip the scales to the Legitimists? Well, it's a bit tricky.
Advice in Blue Bold.
- Your only IG supporter is the Clergy, who don't have much clout. The Landowners, meanwhile, have a lot of clout and an Orleanist leader. You can fix this by inviting Juan Lavalle in 1836, making him your Landowner leader, and
brainwashing him swaying him to the Legitimists. You could also invite some other Landowner leader that's more popular, but that's RNG on whether they'll be there anytime soon.
- Each IG has their own building type that gives them an edge. Unfortunately for you, the Legitimists have the worst.
Legitimists get Agriculture. Orleanists get Industry. And the Bonapartists have the ARMY. France starts with 187 divisions and 100 ships. They both count and they both help Bonaparte.
Either delete your army/navy, hold off on Industrializing (inviting Lavalle basically annihilates the Orleanists), or build some farms. I would recommend the last option. Since you'll probably eventually want to Industralize, Silk and Dye will help. You start off short on Tobacco too so that's a start. Alternatively, ignore this and build Universities for that sweet, sweet Innovation. If you feel the Bonapartists are getting too strong (an early Louis-Napoleon will do that), then you could try scaling back your navy.
- Option 1 actually tanks your Legitimacy anyway so whatever. I would recommend not trying to tank it too much, because too many radicals will cause them to overthrow the monarchy.
- Choose the right event options. Take every event that erodes the position of the other two sides.