Chapter Twelve: Playing in Traffic
atomicsoda Thanks, though knowing how it turns out I feel a bit bad about that, now.
Dewirix Thanks, I was shooting for stupid-ish, might have overshot. I'd love even more immigrant attraction once my industry seems ready to survive governmental indifference.
When I play a mid-sized power trying to grab territory from another mid-sized power, I am sometimes stuck doing it when my enemy's powerful allies are busy fighting other Great Powers. In such a case, I have to hope no one will notice my little war until it's too late, because the big boys could easily smash me. I call this strategy "Playing in Traffic". Well, my war with the OE is a little more risky than that, since France isn't fighting anyone. On the other hand, neither is France allied with the Ottomans, so I have some hope of a quick victory, or France becoming embroiled in a real war. If France does jump in, I face two problems, one large, the other perhaps insurmountable.
First, let's assume that I can run away from France's armies long enough to let desert attrition take it's toll, then fight them to a standstill. This still leaves the large problem: the combination of France's navy and Vicky 2's substantial warscores for blockades. The perhaps insurmountable problem is that whatever crappy warscore I'd earn against the OE for Tripoli provinces, that score disappears when those provinces are valued as part of an alliance of the OE and France. I can get a concession from the OE if the war goes well, even with a warscore of 10ish I'd think, if I own the target provinces. Especially if the Ottos have other nations jump them. The AI does a good job kicking someone when they're down. However, there is no way to get a win from France if, as far as France is concerned, I'm losing the war because I have +2 points in provinces and -8 in blockades. With those concerns in mind, I move quickly into position by breaking up my 18,000-24,000 man armies into groups of 9k or 12k, to minimize attrition. They'll break up further to occupy the Ottoman Empire's Tripolitanian state. A steady stream of troops from central Africa walk north.
All of the Ottoman allies beg off this war, except the two satellites, Wallachia and whatever. I wonder if the fact that I am not fighting, say, Austria, isn't worse for me. If it was me vs Austria and the OE, then major powers could figure the war is well in hand. If it's me vs the Ottos alone, maybe France thinks she needs to act. I dunno. Probably not a coincidence: I get a Blood and Roses event, allowing me to 'overextend' and bump Jingoism nationwide by 10%. I don't see a downside here
The Ottomans mobilize, giving them 27 brigades. I hope I see them. Warscore may be hard to come by with just desert provinces and no safe access to the main Ottoman holdings. In August I discover Machine Tools, boosting Machine Parts production 15% (I built three or four factories), and my advance armies arrive in Tripoli itself. By September, the entire state of Tripoli and parts of the nearby Libyan Coast are under Argentine occupation, waiting for an opponent. In December I capture my first state, coastal Misratah.
Ghat falls days later, and three more fall before Tripoli on January 4, 1880. On the 23rd of January, France intervenes in the war, bringing in 353 ships and 211 brigades. Well, either I was unlucky, not fast enough, or this was just a very bad idea all along. I'll go for unlucky. Add Austria or Italy and I'd have had a real fight, which the French needn't have interfered in. I might have lost, but I would not face France. Fighting the all-but-defenseless Ottomans, France had to jump in. Or maybe I was foolish to be hopeful. The majors do tend to intervene, but I've seen plenty of wars, for example, where Egypt was left hanging. In any event, this is a completely different war. I take another province on the 25th of January, and note that the Ottomans are occupying defenseless Johore with one conscript brigade. I consider demobilizing one brigade drawn from there, and retraining them, but if that's all I have to worry about, it'll be fine. Look below and what I was on about in Warscore:
I've taken nearly all the provinces I'm asking for, but my needed warscore is still 16. Holding those provinces counts for +0.7. France blockading my capitol counts as -2.8, four times that, and I have a net -3 score without having lost a province or a battle. Granted, the +0.0 provinces were +0.1 when I was fighting the Ottomans alone, but I was winning, at least. A worn out Ottoman empire (or one where I'd defeated some armies), would have accepted my terms, and having stripped away her GP allies, she was in real danger of being attacked by everyone around her. And then something mildly unfortunate happened. I occupied a French African province, more to have a look-see at the surrounding area than anything else, when one of the AI's traditionally overpowered colonial armies makes an appearance. I considered my advance troops disposable. It seemed to me, clicking madly for ten days, that when you try to retreat too soon, the game could offer an option to retreat as soon as it's permitted.
My troops suffer remarkably few casualties for being so badly outnumbered. Frontage ftw. Good thing the French all have to stay in a stright line, if they could have surrounded my troops, they'd all be dead. Later in March I take the last province in Ottoman Tripoli. The large French army thinks better of entering unfriendly desert, and move out of my line of sight. My warscore is down to -6, with no hope of meeting my objectives. I look at the Offer Peace screen, I remove my demand of territory, and it says that France will not accept what amounts to a WP offer?! However, I click "Offer Terms", and see that while a Status Quo offer counts as +1, and I'm at -6, France will still accept it. On March 25, we agree to a White Peace. I wonder, and maybe I should have tried something, is there a way around France in a war like this? The Ottomans cannot accept a separate peace giving me Tripoli, because it would end the war. What if I add a wargoal of "Humiliate France" (forget for the moment the warscore I'd need to add a Wargoal), could I then offer the Ottomans a separate peace demanding Tripoli? It wouldn't end the war, right? Granted, there's no way I could get that here, but assume I'd grabbed serious Ottoman territory on top of what I wanted, it might make sense for them to bow out. I have no idea if that would work.
My militancy jumps to 2.70 because of my failed war, and I am rewarded! I can adopt another social reform. I choose another boost to health care. Then, I notice that I can convert to Military Industrial Complex. Since I am largely done with Culture - and I plan to I ignore Commerce and Navy - Industry and Army will be the main development goals in the future. So I accept. I then spend the next few years on Culture techs, reminding me that just because something is a good idea doesn't mean it's a good idea right now. The rest of 1880 winds down without much incident, rubber was found in Johore, what were the odds? I discover P&H, yet another 100% research boost, and I begin work on Biologism, which includes the wonderful +50% to literacy invention, Darwinism. It's about this time I regretted taking Militarily Industrial Complex the minute I saw that I could. January of 1881 brings me another health care reform, bumping my population increase from that reform to +0.10%.
In 1881 the remains of Persia are annexed by the UK, but Argentina largely minds its own business. October brings us Biologism, with an immediate 10% boost to literacy gains. I currently have 37% Literacy, with nearly 34RPs per day coming in. In November I finish colonizing South Cameroon. I decide to go for Lagos, which has a large population and is contiguos to my african holdings. France has become active in the colonizing game, as you can see.
I notice in November that the UK has me back up to friendly, I'm down to Rank #10, so probably won't be a GP for a while yet, and I'd like to be in the UK sphere. January 1882 brings Darwinism, and I look forward to seeing literate peasants replace illiterate ones throughout Argentina. Having seen armies not reinforce while at rest for a long long time, I research Associationism. In July 1882, noticing that France is "Likely" to accept an alliance proposal from me (I got us back near 200 from the 100 we reached after our little misunderstanding), I propose, and France accepts! I'm thinking that I could DoW the Ottos, if France were merely Friendly to them, and France could not intervene because France and I were allied? Does that sound right? Well, they break the alliance and intervene, I guess.
Overall, I have to apologize for this update. Too bad about the war. I could not see passing up the opportunity, but I could not see continuing against France. The next update is certain to be better, for reasons which will become clear.
In January 1883 I stumble across quite a sight: 150,000 Chilean soldiers! I also notice that one-state Chile is ranked 12th in the world, only slightly behind me. It's going to be some time before I get below 5 Infamy which will allow me to annex Chile, but it will be a battle, and it will be soon.