“Now,” Lloyd George continued, “Given that we understand that the Russians will attempt an early naval strike, we arrive at the conclusion that we must prepare for the eventuality of a war with the Soviet Union before we can be certain of its occurrence. We know that the chief Soviet naval base is in what is now called Leningrad. Therefore, in order for any major Soviet strike to take place, their navy will need to sail through the Baltic and in between Denmark, Norway and Sweden, in the channels called Skagerrak and Kattegat. From there, we can assume that they will not risk passing through the English Channel and will therefore sail to the north of Scotland. Once the Russians are in open waters, finding them will be very hard; we can expect them to keep a low profile. Therefore we must engage them before they can do so. We can hope that the Scandinavian nations will allow our fleets to protect Skagerrak and Kattegat, but should they decline us this right, we may have to compel them, through means that are somewhat beyond diplomatic, to allow our fleets to move in. There is also the possibility that Russia may declare war on these nations, hoping to install puppet regimes to govern them. We must use force to prevent this. Returning to naval matters, the first document that you have received, gentlemen, is a guide to how we must engage the Red Banner Fleet in the North Sea, along with major naval bases in the area.”
Fig. 1. Likely passage of the Red Banner Baltic Fleet in its attempts to enter the North Sea
“What of Sebastopol?” A voice from the back said. Lloyd George turned to face the question and, without pausing, sent back his retort:
“Our naval forces in Gibraltar will be able to close of the straits completely in times of war. Likewise, our Mediterranean fleets can totally shut off Suez. Any Russian fleets based out of Sebastopol or any other Black Sea ports will be trapped in the Mediterranean.”
While the admirals in the room paid close attention to the diagram, the others who were present seemed content with Lloyd George’s reasoning. Their attempts to seem dismissive of the Soviets were brushed aside by the genuine concern that sparked in their eyes whenever they thought of the dark, immense stretches of the East. The howling steppes and frozen Arctic plains were bad enough to visualise without the nefarious triumph of the Reds. The stories, the rumours that pervaded high society of Bolshevik evils returned to the minds of the rich. Unified by their deep unease about the tales of brutal famine, of cannibalism, of churches having their prized treasures seized mercilessly and of the rich having no choice but to barter all they had for a pitiful ration of black bread and to burn their once great libraries for heat, the assembled members of this High Council were edging further and further behind Lloyd George, committed to their ideals of Britannia and the glories of Empire.
“Now, though we may engage them in the waters of Skagerrak, it is certain that some remnants, however organised or powerful they may be, will escape into the North Sea. We must attempt to engage them again in their journey northwards, before they round the north tip of Scotland and split up to begin raiding our merchant shipping. The second document you have been provided with illustrates the key area in which we must seek our second engagement. The square marked with the arrow is what we believe to be the optimal area for such a battle. The lined rectangle shows an area in which a belt of destroyers and vessels equipped for anti-submarine warfare should be placed. Should the Soviets pass through these defences, we have shown the likely areas in which they will raid our shipping. I trust that we are agreed on this being the best course of action?”
Fig. 2. Optimal areas for interception and destruction of the Red Banner Baltic Fleet.
There was a wave of assent. Some nodded eagerly, as if wanting to prove beyond any doubt that they were with Lloyd George. Others also nodded, but moved their heads pensively, agreeing slowly, but just as decisively. The murmurs of assent were then pierced by Dowding’s voice.
“What of the Royal Air Force? Are we expected to conduct a strategic campaign against the USSR from Scandinavian air bases? Will our interceptors be guarding Britain from a strategic aerial assault, or should we cover the fleet? This will, of course, determine where the meat of RAF spending is diverted to. Either we focus on a heavy bomber wing, or interceptors or torpedo-armed aircraft for land based naval operations.”
This question earned some thought from the Prime Minister before he answered. Indeed, the first stage of his answer was another question, this time to Tovey.
“Are the carrier aircraft we currently possess sufficient to cover the fleet?”
“Along with the protection offered by the anti-aircraft armaments, they will protect us from any air assault the Russians dare to throw at us.”
Lloyd George was pleased by Tovey’s confidence and was able to turn to Dowding to provide his true answer.
“We need no more naval aviation aside from potential further carrier air groups for potential further carriers. The creation of an air force capable of large scale strategic bombing will be too taxing on our industry, given the demands that it already faces.” At this remark, a few of the leading industrialists showed their decisive agreement. Lloyd George waited for silence before continuing. “A modest expansion of our interceptor wings is the best that can be hoped for, along with the improvement of home air defence.” Dowding did not look content, but did not respond.
Lloyd George returned to the matter of the Soviet Navy. He turned to the third of the sheets in front of him and began to speak, barely noticing how all heads turned squarely towards him: “Although an assault on the Soviet naval base in Leningrad may at first seem appealing, we must bear in mind that the Soviets have the potential to heavily mine the entrance to the port. This would make any assault unacceptably dangerous. The likely area of minefields is illustrated in the third sheet that has been given to you, marked by the red square. The lines stretching from Estonia to Finland show were we predict that the Soviets may scuttle ships to block off the port. I trust that this information has dissuaded any of you that may otherwise have believed an attack to be wise.”
Fig. 3. A diagram showing the foolishness of an attempted attack on Leningrad naval base.
The Prime Minister needed only a moment’s silence to confirm his belief. He carried on, not needing to ensure that he would have the undivided attention of the room: “However, though we may predict a Soviet attack and plan for it, all our preparations will come to nothing if we lack the necessary force to carry them through. Therefore, Tovey, your 3rd Battleship Squadron has been ordered to rebase from Malta to Hull. For those of you who do not know, the 3rd Battleship squadron contains, among others, the battleships HMS Warspite, Revenge, Royal Sovereign and Royal Oak. From Hull, the 3rd Battleship squadron will be prepared to operate alongside the rest of our North Sea forces in the task of engaging the Soviets.”
Tovey showed a brief flicker of surprise, he clearly had not been told. However this brief expression of shock was quickly erased from his face. His eyes wandered upwards as he began to consider the implications of leaving Malta for the English coastal city of Hull. He barely noticed the aide handing him a sheet detailing his orders.
The orders issued to Admiral Tovey which commanded him to rebase to Hull.
Lloyd George was considerate enough to give him a few moments before moving on. He closed one notebook which he had been reading from and replaced it in his briefcase, before retrieving another one. The more sharp-eyed amongst the group could see that it was titled ‘Rest of World’. After finding a page very near the front of the book, Lloyd George surveyed it for a few seconds and then placed the notebook, open on the same page, on the desk. “We must realise,” he announced, “That the threat of Bolshevism is not just confined to Russia. Even now the breakaway People’s Republic of China is engaged in a bloody civil war, under their dictator Mao, against their democratic allies. You have been issued with a map of the area, with some annotations. The green area shows how we believe that the communists are aiming to expand in the short-term. The relatively poorly defended mountains of north-eastern China, overseen by a state that is allied with the Republic of China against the Communists known as the Ma Clique will make easy pickings for Mao’s forces. Once this early phase of expansion is complete, Mao will probably attempt to finish of the Ma Clique by driving through to Golmud, the capital city, shown by the red rectangle. My sources tell me that it is surprisingly highly industrialised, and will be of value to Mao’s Communists. From there, Mao could strike into the Republic of China to the south or the north. The south is better defended, but more industrialised. Both of these axes of attack are also marked by red rectangles.”
Fig. 4. Areas of expansion for the Communist, breakaway nation, the People’s Republic of China, led by the enigmatic Chairman Mao.
“However,” Lloyd George did not bother to stop, or even slow down, “China has more than one area of major interest to us. The next and final document you now possess shows this. The first flashpoint is the border of the Republic of China with Manchuria, currently a Japanese client state. There have already been disturbances there in the recent past. If there are more, it could lead to an outright war between the two nations. The second point has already been discussed by us. Mao’s China is clearly something to be worried about. The third flashpoint covers the security of our territory of Hong Kong and the French holding to the west. These must be protected in order to show the world that we will protect our Empire. I hope we all agree on this. Now, are there any questions?”
Fig. 5. The three major potential flashpoints in China.