Part XXV: April – June 1937
There are also some major developments regarding technology: I.G. Farben finished the research of Agrichemistry, boosting our industrial efficiency and efficiency in producing supplies by 2 percent (also a reason why our Effective IC fluctuates, I've forgotten to mention that in the previous update), Erich Raeder finished the research on Task Forces, making Naval Patrol and Interdiction missions five percent more effective, and Blohm & Voss completed research on Improved Naval Invasions, which will, well, improve our abilities to stage naval invasions.
We used the three available tech slots for two important air force technologies and one not so important navy technology: Junkers researches 1937 CAS bombers and Focke-Wulf 1937 Escort Fighters, which will hopefully enable us to compensate the relative small size of the Luftwaffe at least with state-of-the-art equipment for my CAS and some escorts for my initial tactical bombers. Blohm & Voss is retained as a tech team and is tasked with the research of Long Range Submarines -- due to our critical IC situation I explained before in detail, I doubt that we will build any submarines, but when finally better times arrive, submarines will be one of the first things I will put into the production queue. It's really unpleasant that I have to forego them now, they perform very well in DH, already prompting some guys on the DH main forum to accuse them of being overpowered.
During the timeframe of this update Messerschmitt will also conclude the research on 1937 Interceptors, and I will subsequently order Krupp to research 1938 Basic Light Tanks, but six months before 1938 actually begins. Yes, you could call six months pre-researching somewhat decadent if you consider the hefty penalty for research speed Krupp gets, but actually I've already researched or I am researching all 1937 technologies that haven't been excluded already from the beginning. And because I feel that I have somewhat given my panzer forces a too harsh chastisement by coldheartedly moving three armor PRs down the production list -- although it was necessary -- I think that it's therefore justified to research from all available 1938 technologies the 1938 armor technology first. Besides, if the rogations for an early Anschluss will be heard, I will get from Czechoslovkia blueprints for the 1939 Improved Light Tank technology also earlier, which would enable us to research this technology earlier, too, but this time with a blueprint that will boost our research speed considerably.
Financing my own intelligence with money from the
KGB Soviets was perhaps not the best idea, after all. Well, I think they were just lucky here by delaying the second PR of infantry by two months (the British managed to delay the first PR), but it nevertheless remembers us that I wish to raise my intelligence level again sometime around September. As long as this doesn't become a regularity, I'm not concerned about the production of infantry, all PRs will arrive in time -- I think. If not, I will move them just two months later to the front; I hope that I will not be in such a critical situation that two divisions will decide the outcome of the war.
Despite all worries, my mood virtually skyrocketed as soon as my first three armor divisions were completed. My lovely panzers -- they will slice through the French and Polish like a warm knife through butter.
The units will join the already existing three light armor divisions under the command of General von Manstein in Potsdam, thus my first armor corps is completed. I hope that I will be able to finish at least one another full armor corps before the war starts -- which would be only possible if the Anschluss happens during the next months. It's somewhat of a quiet shock that half of 1937 is already over and the Austrian Nazi coup still didn't trigger, but there is still the faint hope that it could happen any day, despite the low odds. It's not a game-deciding question, but an optimal execution of my strategy relies on it. I have managed to beat the French in one of my test games with just one armor corps after five months, and I could have been even faster if I had used the armor corps not in the Ardennes, but at the coast of the Low Countries in order to capture Paris with a lightning attack. In another test game where I had two armor corps at my disposal France has fallen after two and a half months. So even if I will have only one armor corps, I hope that the early attack will ensure that this doesn't take too long, especially as I have against France some extremely evil strategies that will be later introduced to you.
Now to the promised discussion of Japanese affairs. The Japanese have, of course, demanded from me to recognize Manchukuo, and I have, for the first time since I started playing HoI, decided to ignore the Japanese demands. I've brood over this decision very long, as it would basically cast my foreign policy towards Japan in a mould. I think I spent several minutes with thinking before I finally decided to reject the Japanese demands. My decision is based on two major reasons:
1. Look how the Japanese are performing in the Sino-Japanese War. It's just ludicrous, it's even worse than the Italian "invasion" of Abyssinia -- the Japanese have, after more than six months, only captured four -- I repeat -- four provinces in Northern China. This is such a drastic show of incompetence, I think I've never seen such a bad performance by Japan. If everything works well for the Japanese, they usually stand before the gates of Nanjing after six months, and if everything works bad for the Japanese, they usually stand after six months at the Yellow river (Changzhou -- Anyang -- Xinxiang -- etc.). But this is far from being bad -- I have no idea what they're doing. If we don't see any surprises during the next weeks, the USA will probably crush Japan like a bug as soon as they enter the war -- if they aren't repelled in the meantime by the Chinese to their home islands.
2. I have looked in more detail on the Japanese events with Alt + Tab before making my decision, and it doesn't look good. As I have already said before, if Japan forms an alliance with another country, they form their own alliance block, which makes it impossible to invite Japan to the Axis. The Japanese have proven several times in my test games that they will at some point form alliances in the Far East, especially with their puppets -- and after I looked at the
japan.txt event file, I can confirm that two of these alliances, Manchukuo and Mengkukuo, are actually written into events, which makes the whole issue even more complicated, as I can't profit from Japan in any imaginable way without them being in the Axis. I would have to invite them very early to make sure that they join the Axis -- but this is not going to happen before the beginning of World War II, as I would enter their war against the Chinese, causing my belligerence to rise significantly, especially because of the Führer, and would need to spend way too much money on this.
This does not exclude an alliance with Japan -- it only makes an alliance very unlikely. I'm not willing to spend my money on a country that is about to be beaten up by both the Chinese and the Americans, especially as it could be in the end impossible to invite them to the Axis. Should I change my mind and need, for example, help against the Soviets -- although I doubt that they would be a help, the Soviets would probably even assist the Chinese in seizing Manchukuo swiftly -- I could always repair the fifteen-point-relationship hit if they are still available for an alliance. I won't get the leader and techteam Alexander von Falkenhausen for refusing to ignore the Japanese demands, but as the techteam is crap and the leader not an outstanding genius, it's not even a moderate loss. Far more important is the fact that we can continue to make profitable trades with both China and Japan, as the relationsship with Japan is not destroyed by this decision, while the Chinese would hate us forever if we would recognize Manchukuo. This is also in good old Prussian tradition, since the Crimean War in 1853 we always supplied in times of neutrality both sides in a war with weapons.
OK. After this event fired, I wanted to know what the Pact of Steel actually does (I haven't bothered about this before, thinking it was only a minor event), and as I've already started to look up some Japanese events, I started to do the same with Germany. I have now finally figured out how the event chain that leads to the Anschluss actually works. You will be, I think, surprised, because according to my new observations, it was impossible that the Anschluss would trigger before the Pact of Steel, making all hopes during the last months pointless. I will show it to you:
Code:
trigger = {
OR = { random = 4 AND = { random = 55 year = 1938 } year = 1939 }
OR = {
AND = {
non_aggression = { country = AUS country = GER }
NOT = { guarantee = { country = ITA country = AUS } }
minister = 1
}
alliance = { country = GER country = ITA }
}
}
These are the requirements for the Nazi coup in Austria. Remember, in order to enact the Anschluss decision as Germany, this event must have fired in Austria. Apart from the first OR condition, which says that the chance for the coup to fire in 1937 is 4 percent, that the chance will increase in 1938 by 55 percent, and the chances for the coup are in 1939 100 percent, other conditions must be satisfied, which is defined in the second OR condition.
The second OR condition can be satisfied in two ways:
1. Germany and Italy have an alliance. (This was a most unpleasant discovery.
)
2. Germany and Austria have a non-aggresion pact (check!), minister no. 1 -- the one and only Führer, of course -- is still alive (check!), and Italy must not guarantee the independence of Austria. The latter was obviously the crux: Italy did guarantee Austria until now, and this guarantee was just removed through Italy signing the Pact of Steel.
But what caused Italy to sign the Pact of Steel? Could they have signed it earlier? Well:
Code:
decision = {
event = 2003007
exists = SOV
NOT = {
war = { country = GER country = ITA }
war = { country = GER country = JAP }
war = { country = JAP country = ITA }
alliance = { country = GER country = SOV }
alliance = { country = JAP country = SOV }
alliance = { country = ITA country = SOV }
}
}
decision_trigger = {
OR = {
alliance = { country = GER country = ITA }
year = 1938
event = 2011021
}
}
trigger = {
OR = {
alliance = { country = GER country = ITA }
AND = {
flag = JAP_Anti_comintern_pact
random = 10
}
AND = {
flag = NO_JAP_Anti_comintern_pact
random = 5
}
}
exists = SOV
NOT = {
war = { country = GER country = ITA }
war = { country = GER country = JAP }
war = { country = JAP country = ITA }
alliance = { country = GER country = SOV }
alliance = { country = JAP country = SOV }
alliance = { country = ITA country = SOV }
}
}
I'll give you the gist of it: The decision to sign the Pact of Steel becomes potentially available for Italy as soon as I enact the Anti-Comintern Pact decision. Then, I either have to ally with Italy (...
) which would trigger the Pact of Steel for Italy instantaneously (...
) or wait for event 2011021 to trigger and have some luck (5 percent or 10 percent chance, depending on the question if Japan has joined the Anti-Comintern Pact, which it would have if I had recognized Manchukuo). You ask what event 2011021 is? Well, look at the fourth picture in this update. Event 2011021 is the event that fires in Japan in order to force me to recognize Manchukuo. So we will go even deeper and try to find out if Japan's decision regarding the recognition of Manchukuo could have occured earlier as well:
Code:
trigger = {
OR = { random = 12 AND = { year = 1938 random = 70 } }
flag = anti_comintern_pact
exists = CHI
exists = GER
exists = MAN
OR = {
war = { country = JAP country = CHI }
alliance = { country = GER country = JAP }
}
NOT = {
alliance = { country = GER country = CHI }
alliance = { country = GER country = CYN }
alliance = { country = GER country = CSX }
alliance = { country = GER country = CXB }
alliance = { country = GER country = SIK }
war = { country = GER country = JAP }
}
}
It basically starts all with the Anti-Comintern Pact. As soon as the Anti-Comintern Pact decision is enacted by Germany and Japan is at war with China (or allied with Germany ...) there is a 12 percent chance to fire the recognition of Manchukuo, which rises in 1938 by 70 percent. This would then set all other necessary events in motion, ultimately leading to the Anschluss.
I hope that this wasn't boring or confusing, but I think that a precise investigation of Germany's event chain is at least informative for all people who play Germany '36 in DH theirselves. Even more important is the question: What conclusions can we draw from it?
1. The fastest way to get the Anschluss is to ally with Italy after the enactment of the Anti-Comintern Pact decision as Germany, because this causes the Italians to sign the Pact of Steel, therefore annulling their guarantee of Austria, and therefore making the Nazi coup in Austria possible. Another way would be to ally with Japan after the Anti-Comintern Pact and to have some luck (12 percent in 1936 and 1937, 70 percent in 1938), triggering the Manchukuo recognition event, then recognizing Manchukuo as Germany (for 10 percent chance instead of 5 percent to get the next event) and subsequently triggering the event that allows Italy to sign the Pact of Steel, making the Austrian Nazi coup possible.
2. Italy has now signed the Pact of Steel, so there is no need to alter our strategy, as now all conditions for the Nazi coup in Austria are satisfied. If I had the knowledge I have acquired now at the beginning of the game, I would have probably done everything possible to conclude an alliance with Italy. My initial ignorance perhaps delayed the Anschluss by some months, but also saved me from an alliance with the Italians. Now the conditions for the Nazi coup in Austria are fulfilled anyway, so I just want to say, regarding the missed Italian alliance: Good riddance. As I can't change it anymore, I just try to see the positive side, and the lack of an alliance with Italy is positive, at least in my opinion.
3. I'm so optimistic right now. The Anschluss will probably fire now in some weeks or even days -- look at the event that allowed Italy to sign the Pact of Steel: The chances that this event would occur were only five percent (per day? I don't know it exactly), and not ten percent, because I have refused to recognize Manchukuo. Nevertheless, the event fired just two days later. The chances for the Nazi coup are in 1937 four percent -- this is only one percent lower, and this gives me hope. Mathematics can even verify my hope: I have the impression that the chances are indeed given on a per-day basis, so based on this assumption the chance that we will get the Anschluss in 60 days are 1 - 0,96 ^ 60 = 0,9136 = 91,36 %.
Edit: On the other hand, the chances could not be given on a per-day basis, which would deceive my hopes and calculations. I opened a new
thread in the User Modifications subforum to get a definite answer.
Edit2: After getting an answer from Fernando Torres, it seems that I was indeed mistaken with my assumption that the random trigger works on a per day basis. Chances work in DH on an offset basis. The offset for the Austrian Nazi Coup is 30 days, which means that the daily chance for the event to trigger is 0,04 / 30 = 0,0013333 = 0,13 %. So the chance for the coup to trigger in the next 60 days are 1 - 0,9987 ^ 60 = 0,07508 = 7,5 %.