Ottoman Empire event series
Well I finished the first full history of the Ottoman Empire book for the class I'm in, so now I feel informed enough to start the speculation.
Well one immediate thing that needs to happen is for a new Sultan to take over for poor ol' Abdul Hamid II. The guy is almost 100 by 1936. I did some research and the guy who would take over would most likely be Abdul Mejid II. If you search Abdul Mejid II on GoogleImages, there's only one result and it's a good picture for HOI2. So yeah, I would have that happen sometime in 1936 or '37. I guess I would go with something like Stern Imperialist for his personality trait.
I see three likely possibilties for a series of events involving the Ottoman Empire.
One: a series of rebellion events in which various pieces of the empire try to break off. I don't think this one is likely. Armenia was the big rebel during the late 19th and 20th centuries and they already have a vassalship status, so I don't think they'd try to break off anymore. Egypt was another province that was fairly hard to control, but they're already independent too and the two governments have a lot in common. There's always the possibility of a Turkish nationalist revolt, but I think with all the land in the Balkans lost and the devshirme abolished, that one isn't very likely either.
Two: some damnfool thing in the Balkans. This one seems likely enough except that there's no good way for the Ottomans to do it. The obvious target is Bulgaria, but the Ottoman relationship with them is pretty good (apparently) in this scenario. Alternatively there is Greece, which is a more likely target, but hard to capture without some land bridge connecting them to Ottoman territory. I tried invading through Albania but it didn't work, so I don't see how that would be a fun series of events, particularly since there are so many wars in the Balkans already.
Three: This is the one I like. There was a huge Islamic Tartar population in the Crimean region that was forced into a max exodus in the late 19th century. Stalin basically completed the job in the 1940s but obviously that wouldn't have happened. With the Ottomans being on the winning side in world war one, it seems likely that the Russians couldn't have oppressed the Tartars as heavily as they did, and many of the former refugees would be itching to get back. Therefore...
Trigger- Crimean Tartar Republic secedes from Ukraine.
Ukraine Trigger- Let them go / Go to War
If war- Ottoman Trigger- Send aid / Offer Alliance to CTR / Stay Neutral
I'm not sure whether the blue/red outline or the red one is more appropriate. In terms of demography, I think both are viable judging by the ethnic and religious groups that would have been in that area in this timeline in 1936.
I don't really want a war between the Ottoman Empire and Germany since they have no reason to fight. Maybe if Ukraine was on its own and its independence wasn't guarenteed or something... Eventually I think the Ottomans would go to war with Russia, preferable as part of a Turkestan, CTR alliance. Russia and the Ottoman Empire loathed each other back when Russia was called Moskovy. That hatred never went away. And the Tartars and Turks had a lot in common, especially in their ethnic rivalry with the Slavs.
Anyways, I know that what I've said isn't enough for anyone to actually do anything, but I want to hear what you guys think. One other thing is that the Ottomans are way too weak in this scenario. Yes they had trouble modernizing. But they were on the right path when the war started. One thing that happened during the war is that they were able to cancel all their debts to the Entente nations, which was a HUGE help to their financial situation since their main expense was paying off previous debts that they had taken out in order to build railroads and factories.
Abdul Hamid II was a capable reformer, and I think the Ottoman Empire would have been in pretty good shape by the 1930s. I would up the Industry in the Turkey region so that the Ottomans have something like 50. That would be more accurate of the realities of what would have happened. You have to remember that in the real world, Turkey had another war after WW1 that lasted for another several years and damaged the country almost as badly as the Great War did, just in addition.