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Aye. I'm sorry it went so badly for you, hm?

Personally, I wanted you to play Sweden. It was smaller and far more managable, and I knew you hadn't played EU3 in a long time. Oh well...

Sweden would have been workable, yeah, because I would never need to raise 50 regiments and scroll back and forth from Poland to Kazakhstan constantly to whack rebels.

As I said, you're great, I just find your group to be... well some of them are really nice, and good to play with, but Pewt is too much of a dick for me to bother with, and the attitude of Tazen was actually worse, since it clearly demonstrated the group is more interested in rules than the actual game. Most of them wanted someone to sub for Russia since the original player was absent, but they ended up without one because they weren't willing to behave with a modicum of common sense. For my part I was disappointed that I'd skipped playing Mafiya Work with some good friends.
 
Is anyone GMing next lite?
 
@ Marty

Kingepyon's among the most dangerous wolves. He was awful at first IIRC, but I've been his pack mate, or otherwise associated, a few times, and he's deadly as a ninja. Usually I'd have the measure of a player from being their packmate, and have a feel for whether they're being honest. I had King's number in Gondolin (he seemed innocent to me, and was), but here I'm unsure. He's easily sharp enough to hurl Suirantes under a bus to save the rest of the pack, particularly by being the first guy to go after Suirantes he'd see that as more valuable than being a later mover. Then again, it would be a strange day when Kingepyon got caught out on Day 1 as a wolf like that - as a villager it's entirely plausible he was just moving up frontrunners.
Thanks for that. I did read the last game where he was a wolf and he has clearly upped his game.

Find it annoying that I'm on suspects lists at this point. The remaining living players are:
You haven't done nearly enough to fully clear yourself

It's 2/7. Let's chuck some people off the list: Kiwi killed Esemesas, which in turn blew up Suirantes.
That's just plain stupid for a wolf to do: it's 3 days to parity without a normal seer if Kiwi just votes for Seen. Killing Esemesas makes it 5 days to parity and exposes Suirantes, and if Suirantes dies (as he did) it goes to 6 days (however due to Rendap's death it actually didn't change). So Kiwi would have to be a gigantic moron, since even if this game him the perfect alibi and the seer never did anything, it still requires nobody finding an excuse to lynch him for the next five days. So let's move him off the list entirely. That leaves:
The first part (killing esemesas) can be used as evidence, the second part: "which in turn blew up Suirantes" cannot, because Kiwi could not have known that would happen. And anyway, with the seer shackled I don't doubt Kiwi could be bloodthirsty to sacrifice two wolves to win- even if he was scanned by the seer his credibility would see him through. Again, the 'exposes Suirantes' part, is irrelevant, as it could not have been known. And anyway, if he got two wolves killed, nobody would 'find an excuse to lynch him for the next five days.' You're greatly exaggerating his actions. The only clearing thing he's done (even including yesterday, as his vote for Yakman was meaningless) was break a tie in favour of a wolf who more than likely would have died anyway. Had he saved esemesas and have esemesas die later, that would have blew up his pack, if he's a wolf.
However there's also the matter of him voting for Suirantes, which you omitted (theory: could you be posting really shit defences of Kiwi so I'll ignore the actual evidence in his favour? Mind is blown :p) Once again this vote isn't golden good as Suirantes was a pretty obvious wolf, but it's something. His vote for Yakman meant next to nothing, but overall I think the cumulative effect leaves me to believe Kiwi isn't a wolf. I hope he has a little more honour than that, and I'll certainly be disappointed if he's a wolf.
EDIT: One more thing: in post 325 he argued for two candidates, neither of which are wolves. Perversely, I think this works in his favour. He was voting Suirantes yet said he wanted two other people dead instead. I think Kiwi is more careful as a wolf, like most people, I also find it easier to believe Kiwi would be wrong as a villager than to make a blatant move to save his packmates. It also means that if he is a wolf he has ranged from brutally throwing his packmates under a bus to subtly trying to save them.

Can't we take me off the list? I mean I killed Suirantes.
Again, like Kiwi, you broke a tie to kill him. Like Kiwi, if you had saved him and he later died you would have been a walking dead man. Sure you played your part, but so did Kingepyon. So did Yakman.

I could have killed Rendap instead, which would have given Sui a respite and undermined confidence in the idea that Seen voters are wolves.
Overly speculative. There's no need for a wolf to act like that when simple solid play should guarantee an automatic win.

Since then, however, you always played a considerable role in lynching Yakman; he could and probably would have died anyway, but still. I don't think you're the best target for today.


Let's take Kingepyon off the list too. He did start the move on Suirantes, and Suirantes voted against him, and when Suirantes was tied up Kingepyon could have justified breaking the tie in Suirantes favor. It would have been reasonable for a villager to break that tie and save Sui to avoid a tie, because the tie brought parity closer. I don't consider Kingepyon totally cleared but for today he's a low-odds play.
Agreed. Could definitely be a wolf (as could you and Kiwi) but I wouldn't consider lynching him today.




Which leaves reis and miotas. Initially I was sure miotas was cleared, however since then every single action he has done has done the opposite of clearing, while not doing much outrightly suspicious. Nevertheless, as I consider him a newbie I still find his vote on esemesas to outweigh everything else. I have been suspicious of reis the entire game, however he has told me he has had exams and it's understandable he can't devote as much time. Still, something hasn't rang true about him recently.

With four others each having a plausible chance of being a wolf, odds are <50% that he's not a wolf. I am getting excessively paranoid about every other player, especially Capt. Kiwi, but I think reis is our best hope. His absence fits in well with this dysfunctional wolfpack we have seen thus far. I mean really, there has been some serious fail from the wolves in this game. I can see Kiwi or Vain seeling out their packmates, but would they have let Suirantes and Yakman pull that batshit-insane stunt? Seriously, wtf?! I don't fully know how it went, but they somehow brought each other down. I think Kingepyon woud be more passive, and would tend to let Yakman be pack leader, but surely he would counsel against such insanity. Miotas would probably let it happen.
True, reis has voted for esemesas and Yakman. I'm not saying those votes mean nothing, in any other game they would be enough to let him live, but I think in this game comparatively he's the best hope.



If I had a vote now, I would vote reis91.
But it's darn close. No-one should take this for granted, I haven't had time to look at everything and if any of you villagers come to another conclusion based on firm evidence, by all means go for it. I just wanna get back into the feel of werewolf.
 
Anyway, might as well be honest. The village has this won. The wolf is most probably miotas. If it isn't miotas, then it's Kingepyon. Anyway, the wolves can't win. If we tie them, we guarantee village win. I can wager that everyone who voted Yakman is a villager or seer. So, game over for you, wolves. Will you surrender to let the non-wolf in the pair I mentioned win?

PS : While I was away, marty, I would certainly had time to send in some proper hunting orders to hit the most cleared guys.

PS2: Red letters, size 7, because I don't like green JL's.
 
@ marty99

I disagree with you on a lot of points although I think we come to similar conclusions nonetheless.

Firstly, when Kiwi lynched Esemesas if he was a wolf he would have known it would endanger his packmates. Anyone with experience knows that when a wolf is lynched suspicion falls immediately on the voters for the counter candidate. Kiwi voted after Sui. Sui switched off someone onto Seen which makes him even more suspicious than the average Seen voter. Kiwi didn't need to predict that Suirantes would die, he only needed to recognize that lynching Esemesas would throw suspicion onto a group of four players that included a packmate (two, in fact, but we didn't know that yesterday when I mounted the argument).

With the information we gained today it's even less likely Kiwi is a wolf because Yakman was also a Seen voter. I find it very unlikely that any wolf would lynch a packmate on Day 1 and thereby allow suspicion to concentrate on four targets, two of whom are packmates. It's a mental strategy, requiring that the wolf survive until Parity Day and then avoid being lynched on that day with probably 2 villagers against him. Extremely unlikely to work. Aiming for a Stalingrad by saving packmates from the lynch is more likely to work. In a way Stalingrads are the easiest wolf victories because you need only avoid the lynch for four days. It's short enough that often should you dodge a lynch one day the village hasn't time to return to you. It's so short that patterns rarely emerge in time. Lite packs usually get torn apart when they attempt to save a packmate but fail, thereby narrowing the suspects list considerably, so I have been known to tell Lite packmates to be ruthless about leaving packmates for dead. But working the other way, if you successfully save a packmate you're streets ahead.

In any case the point is not that I am conclusively cleared, not Kingepyon, nor quite Kiwi. It is that compared to everyone else out there we're significantly less likely to be wolves, and the village should look at those and only if that's unsuccessful should they pursue any of us.

Although I think reis is correct anyway.
 
Day 1 (ended 235)

(5) esemesas - bagricula(174), seen(177), reis91(198), miotas(214), capt. kiwi(170 rockingluke, 231)
(4) Seen - Rendap(181), Yakman(185), Kingepyon(210), suirantes(171 Capt. Kiw, 212)
(1) capt. kiwi - Vainglory(179)
(1) Yakman - Falc(189)
(1) Vainglory - the_hdk(191)
(1) marty99 - esemesas(193)
(1) reis91 - rockingluke(199)
(1) Rendap - marty99(205)
(1) Falc - tamius23(208)


Day 2 (ended 319)

(5) Rendap- Reis(242 Kingepyon,257), miotas(267), Seen(241 yakman,277), rockingluke(287), Suirantes(274 kingpeyon,312)
(5) Suirantes - Kingepyon(243), Yakman(261), Capt. Kiwi(262), Rendap(275 reis91,288), Vainglory(289)
(1) Falc - The_HDK(273)
(1) Yakman - Falc(282)
(1) tamius23- tamius23(296)


Day 3 (ended 395)

(3) Rockingluke - moitas(367), Kiwi(326 rockingluke,381 the_hdk,383), Kingepyon(351 rockinluke,382 vainglory,387 rockingluke,382 vainglory,387)
(2) Vainglory - Yakman(336), Rockingluke(340)
(2) Kingepyon - Vainglory(346), Seen(327 Vainglory,347)
(1) Yakman - Reis (233)

Day 4

(5) Yakman - Enkhuush (426), reis91 (455), Vainglory (462), Kingepyon (465), Capt. Kiwi (481)
(1) Capt. Kiwi - miotas (482)
(1) Falc - Yakman (428)
 
wow, this village is doing pretty well without me :p
edit: Of course, it has martyghost.. :)
 
Actually looking at the colored count I'm much less confident that Reis was right now. I wonder if he's the seer, and King and Miotas are the only unscanned... but I wonder at miotas. Votes for a packmate on Day 1 late when he's in danger, then doesn't vote for an exposed packmate on Day 2, or even bother getting an easy alibi on Day 3, and then when his last packmate is already a goner he votes for the least likely wolf?

That's... appalling wolf play if he's a wolf... that's actively sabotaging yourself. I'm actually thinking King's more likely, since at least that would make sense: brutally throwing everyone under a bus in order to scrape through to the end. I can't imagine a wolf adding a vote to Esemesas on Day 1 when reis, Kiwi, and miotas did, so that leaves King. Then again, Reis often sails close to the wind...

I'm stuck.
 
I have no additional insights to offer at this time, but I trust you'll forgive me for this - But if Reis turns out to be the last wolf, I will be just a liiiiiiittle peeved.. :D
 
I have no additional insights to offer at this time, but I trust you'll forgive me for this - But if Reis turns out to be the last wolf, I will be just a liiiiiiittle peeved.. :D

I would commit ritualized suicide if I was the only wolf standing after such a shameful display. And then I would retire this account from WW and make a new one.

Vainglory said:
I wonder if he's the seer

Yes, it could be wise to work under such assumption. Unless anyone has any reason to believe otherwise...
 
Anyway, might as well be honest. The village has this won. The wolf is most probably miotas. If it isn't miotas, then it's Kingepyon. Anyway, the wolves can't win. If we tie them, we guarantee village win. I can wager that everyone who voted Yakman is a villager or seer. So, game over for you, wolves. Will you surrender to let the non-wolf in the pair I mentioned win?

PS : While I was away, marty, I would certainly had time to send in some proper hunting orders to hit the most cleared guys.

PS2: Red letters, size 7, because I don't like green JL's.

Would anyone like to counter this with size 7 letters? Until someone does,

Vote Miotas

Actually looking at the colored count I'm much less confident that Reis was right now. I wonder if he's the seer, and King and Miotas are the only unscanned... but I wonder at miotas. Votes for a packmate on Day 1 late when he's in danger, then doesn't vote for an exposed packmate on Day 2, or even bother getting an easy alibi on Day 3, and then when his last packmate is already a goner he votes for the least likely wolf?

That's... appalling wolf play if he's a wolf... that's actively sabotaging yourself. I'm actually thinking King's more likely, since at least that would make sense: brutally throwing everyone under a bus in order to scrape through to the end. I can't imagine a wolf adding a vote to Esemesas on Day 1 when reis, Kiwi, and miotas did, so that leaves King. Then again, Reis often sails close to the wind...

I'm stuck.

We've suspected an inexperienced/crazy pack all along. Remembering esemesas died day one, would esemesas/Suirantes/Yakman/Miotas fit the bill? Probably.
 
I am the wolf hur dur.