Hi I'm trying to get this event for over 300 game years - I'm becoming living legend in about 5 years from death of my previos ruler - so it is not a prestige issue, also my characters gain trait lunatic quite fast in their life (genetic or from stress) but it seem impossible for me to get this event to fire - I'm not as tech savvy as some of you so can someone help me answer the question - How rare is this event ? What is the coded chance of it fireing each year ? Am I extremaly unlucky or the chances are so low ?
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Solution
It's pretty rare. It's part of the yearly events list, which the list itself has a 25% chance of triggering every year (if your North Germanic, Iberian, or have friends/rivals and have the relevant DLC, your chances will be slightly lowered as those have yearly event lists that will sometimes fire instead of the regular yearly list). If the yearly event list triggers, one of its ~400 events will trigger (though many events your character will not meet the requirements for and so those events will not be included in the list of possible events).
So, if we assume you are somehow only eligible for the 10 lunatic events to fire, that would give you ~2.5% chance of the glass monument event firing every year. If we assume you are somehow eligible for all ~400 events in the list, that would give you ~0.0625% chance of the glass monument event firing every year. So your actual chance is somewhere between these two extremes.
If I had to guess, I'd say it's probably around 0.25% to fire each year. Which if it's a 0.25% yearly chance that'll give you ~12% chance of it happening sometime within a 50 year span with the lunatic trait. That would put it in the ballpark of roughly every ten lunatic character will get to build a glass monument, which seems plausible in my experience. If you have the lunatic trait for 300 years, that would give you ~50% chance of getting the glass monument event.
Another way to think about it is the chance of any yearly lunatic event is roughly 10 times the chance of a specific yearly lunatic event. So whatever rate your getting lunatic events at (ignoring the even that gives the trait and only counting the first if it is chain events), it's going the be roughly 5 times as long on average to get specifically the glass monument.
PS: The only requirements for the event is that you are a lunatic and you have not had the event fire before for that character. Though to be eligible for a yearly event in the first place you need to not be at an activity. Otherwise it is all luck.
So, if we assume you are somehow only eligible for the 10 lunatic events to fire, that would give you ~2.5% chance of the glass monument event firing every year. If we assume you are somehow eligible for all ~400 events in the list, that would give you ~0.0625% chance of the glass monument event firing every year. So your actual chance is somewhere between these two extremes.
If I had to guess, I'd say it's probably around 0.25% to fire each year. Which if it's a 0.25% yearly chance that'll give you ~12% chance of it happening sometime within a 50 year span with the lunatic trait. That would put it in the ballpark of roughly every ten lunatic character will get to build a glass monument, which seems plausible in my experience. If you have the lunatic trait for 300 years, that would give you ~50% chance of getting the glass monument event.
Another way to think about it is the chance of any yearly lunatic event is roughly 10 times the chance of a specific yearly lunatic event. So whatever rate your getting lunatic events at (ignoring the even that gives the trait and only counting the first if it is chain events), it's going the be roughly 5 times as long on average to get specifically the glass monument.
PS: The only requirements for the event is that you are a lunatic and you have not had the event fire before for that character. Though to be eligible for a yearly event in the first place you need to not be at an activity. Otherwise it is all luck.
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Solution
Wow - thanks so much - i will change my heritage (I'm north germanic for that sweet sweet scandinavian elective) and try my luck - have a nice day
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Yeah that'll definitely help. North Germanic heritage has the largest effect of the alternative yearly event triggers. It makes your chances a little over half of what they'd otherwise be.
Edit: clarity