Analysis : How to use republic, why early-game republic is op in 1.26

[trojan1234]

WARNING : Wall of texts

Republic is very strong government if one plays republican tradition properly. I want to share numbers that I calculated and some facts that I found in 1.26

1. You need 2700 reform progress to unlock Tier 10 government reform.

When I first looked at dev diary, I thought I can skip mid-tier reforms and ruch tier 10 but it's locked. 2700 reform progress requires 225 years, or year 1670 or later even if I get 1 point per month excluding events. In practice, conquests lower average autonomy, resulting 10 or less reform progress per year. This means Tier 10 government reform will be available after 270 years, i.e. year 1710 or later. This is important because of

2. Lategame expansion capability a.k.a Absolutism

To fully utilize absolutism mechanics, we need at least 85 maximum absolutism to end Court and Country disaster with at least 65, resulting 100 or higher max. abolutism. Because tier 10 reform of 25 max absolutism is very hard to get before 1710, we should not count it here. Republic will have 65 base + 5 empire rank + 5 great power + 5 Religious unity(very hard without tag shift) + 5 golden age + government modifier, i.e. 85max plus government modifier. Tier 3 reform gives only 10 max absolutism so Dutch, Ambrosian, or peasant republic should suffer lower absolutism. To reach 100 absolutism, Oligarchy republic with consolidation of power reform(+10 max and +1 year election term) seems only viable method.

Everyone says republic is great at MP(monarch power) generation. Is that true? I did calculation:

3. MP generation in 30 years of re-election(3,4,5 years of election term)
The best case for MP generation is constant re-election. Let's assume the ideal case where we rolled 30-aged fresh guy and re-elect until death in his 60s, 30 years of re-election:

MP generations per month from ruler stats are 14.7, 13.6, and 12.5 for 3-years-term, 4-years-term, and 5-years-term respectively. If we count re-election bonus 50 points, those are 15.9, 14.6, and 13.2. This seems very promising but remember this is *the ideal case*. Not every fresh candidate is 30-aged, and we need to deal with republican tradition. So pratical MP generation in game is lower than this.


4. Republican tradition - 1) boosting with mil points

Somebody already noticed in the table above. Boosting republican tradition with mil points is not worth if you don't have idea or religion(Shia) giving you republican tradition. Even with tier2 reform(+0.2 rep. tradition), 30 years of re-election costs 30*(2.5-1.2)= 39 republican tradition = 1300 mil points. If we subtract 1300 from MP generation in 3, those are 11.1, 9.9, and 8.9 for 3-years-term, 4-years-term, and 5-years-term respectively. If we count re-election bonus 50 points, those are 12.3, 10.9, and 9.6. Moreover, mil points generation from ruler stats are 0.9, 0.4, and -0.1. Furthermore, this is *the ideal case* where every candidates pops up with 30-aged. Practical case in game, will have lower mp generation than this number.

5. Republican tradition - 2) republic events

Let's talk about older method - staying 40-50 republican tradition to use republic events ( https://eu4.paradoxwikis.com/Republic_events#Generic ). 12 generic events use 3 years pulse ( https://eu4.paradoxwikis.com/List_of_event_lists#3_year_pulse ). We agree events odds are very against player but let's roughly calculate average event results in terms of republican tradition and MP.

Case 1) Staying 80+ republican tradition
Only 4 republic events can fire. If every 4 of them pop up in 12 years : 5 tradition -120 points, 2% inflation, -1 stab (not to get -10 tradition)x2 = 5 tradition -120points -280points(2stab cost at 80). 1 republican tradition at cost of 64adm 8dip 8mil or 80 total mp
Case 2) Staying 50+ republican tradition
Only 10 republic events can fire. If every 10 of them pop up in 30 years : 5 tradition -120 points, 2% inflation, -1 stab (not to get -10 tradition)x2 + 5 tradition - 1 stab - 150 points - 10 prestige= 10 tradition -270points -600points(3stab cost at 50). 1 republican tradition at cost of 69adm 9dip 9mil or 88 total mp
Case 3) Staying 40-50 republican tradition
All 12 republic events can fire. If every 12 of them pop up in 36 years : 5 tradition -120 points, 2% inflation, -1 stab (not to get -10 tradition)x2 + 5 tradition - 1 stab - 150 points - 10 prestige + 20 tradition - 1 stab + 2tradition - 3 merchantilism = 32 tradition -270points -880points(4stab cost at 40). 1 republican tradition at cost of 30.3adm 2.8dip 2.8mil or 35.9 total mp

This is where older method using republic events comes out. Republic events not always fire in every 3 years but average trade off between republican tradition vs mp is best if you stay in 40-50 republican tradition. However, most of mp cost in republic events are stab hits. In game-play wise, there are fairly enough events providing free stability and there is no stab hit from monarch death. I don't raise stability manually more than 2-3 times in first 100 years of my recent republic game that I tanked to 40-50 republican tradition. If we remove stability in above cases,
Case 1) Staying 80+ republican tradition
5 tradition -120points : 1 republican tradition at cost of 8adm 8dip 8mil or 24 total mp
Case 2) Staying 50+ republican tradition
10 tradition -270points : 1 republican tradition at cost of 9adm 9dip 9mil or 27 total mp
Case 3) Staying 40-50 republican tradition
32 tradition -270points : 1 republican tradition at cost of 2.8adm 2.8dip 2.8mil or 8.4 total mp

Back to 30 years of re-elections model, 39 republican tradition can be paid by 270/32*39 = 329 MP plus 220 stab cost (1 stab in average) This is roughly 1.5 per month (549/360). MP generations per month are 13.2, 12.1, and 11.0 for 3-years-term, 4-years-term, and 5-years-term respectively. If we count re-election bonus 50 points, those are 14.4, 13.1, and 11.7.

6. Republican tradition - 3) Conclusion before and after 1610

I did calculation about two methods to deal with republican tradition. I am not saying one method is strictly better than other. We can choose either method or combination of two up to in-game situation.

In above calculations, I assume that we don't have idea or religion(Shia) giving republican tradition. Remember what I said in 2, you should have 5-years-term after year 1610 or later to have 100 absolutism. If we do so and re-elect 30 years, MP generation per month is at most 9.6 when boosting with mil points or at most 11.7 when using republic events only. Accounting the chances of 40-years-old or 50-year-old candidates, expected MP generation per month is lower than 9.6 or 11.7.

Let's compare with monarchy campaign of my own : Aragon>Spain had average 9.55 per month over 350 years.

Considering legitimacy bonus(tolerance), RM, maybe PU, I think 5-years-term republic doesn't have significant advantages in MP generation over monarchy's benefits.

If you agree with this and don't bother maintaining republic after 1610, you can switch to monarchy by old method - tank republican tradition under 40, become republican dictatorship, and ruler death lead to monarchy by 1610.

Before 1610, we have two choices. One is straightforward constant re-election until monarchy. 4-years-term republic will have 14.6 or higher mp generation per month (didn't count RT cost, it can be higher up to starting ruler stats) until monarchy. Another is maintaining republic by late 1500s only with tier 2 and 3 reforms. Because we will throw away republic by 1610, we can choose 3-years-term reform and enjoy 12.3 - 14.4 MP generation per months. Don't forget to roll young(30ish age) and good stat ruler if your starting ruler is random. It will boost your average MP per month a lot, really a lot. Regarding most starting monarchs are low stats, early game republic is OP in terms on MP generation.

Early-game republic MP generation from my example(Friesland>Netherland) is :

In first 82 years, rulers generate 15072 mp, re-election bonus are 1050, total 16.31 mp per month excluding RT cost. I didn't use mil points but only events to deal with republican tradition since 1480. Even if I paid 2k points in events and stabs(I can't remember but it is definitely lower than 2k), it is total 14k mp or 14.1 mp per month for 82 years, 40% more than average 10stat monarchy.

Well, it was long wall of text.
Thanks for reading, happy wc!

 

[Badesumofu]

Good and interesting analysis of Republics. I'd just point out that we'll run Monarchy with aggressive disinheriting can manage around 13 or 14 MP average over the course of a game.

 

[Zag14]

Plz TLDR

 

[trojan1234]

Good and interesting analysis of Republics. I'd just point out that we'll run Monarchy with aggressive disinheriting can manage around 13 or 14 MP average over the course of a game.

Thanks!
About monarchy average mp, I disagree. If you are saying Ottoman government, I agree. If not, it's way overestimated.

This is the average MP from my Ottoman game. It is still 13.8 even I had Mehmed lived long and got lucky 666. Those 633 543 still takes 3-4 disinheriting even in Ottomans games where you get almost inasta heir popped up and 1+2 heir choice. In other common monarchy, 633 or 543 is really good enough and hard to see. This still requires 5-8 disinheriting and also prestige isn't unlimited and heirs doesn't pop up quickly(if not muslim). If you agree with this and use 633 or 543 ruler, your average can't be 13 or higher. I really doubt you can get 13-14 with monarchy other than Ottomans.

 

[Oldpara]

Great analysis.

I would add that there's more sources of Republican Tradition now, so staying Republic after Dharma is more viable than ever.

Now I am playing Hamburg Bunte Kuh trying to stay Merchant Republic and having all those +RT bonuses is just great:
+0,5 Hamburg NI
+0,2 Gov reform
+0,2 Plutocratic + Economic Policy (now for free)
+0,1 Legalized Divorces (Protestant aspect)
+1,0 base value
+ variable from Power Projection

It gives me 2+ yearly grow of RT with 8 RT loss at 3yr re-election

I just click re-elect every time not even checking Rulers age. It's powerful.

 

[Badesumofu]

13 - 14 for a regular monarchy is totally doable.

I know because I’ve done it. A lot of the theoretical analysis of disinheriting doesn’t take events into account. Talented and Ambitious Daughter is super-OP.

 

[Olterin]

I would like to add that the tier 2 "political dynasties" govt reform all but ensures you an age 30 ruler whenever you need one (at a small republican tradition cost, I believe 4 but not sure if that's related to re-election timers).

 

[raikaria]

I'd say Theocracies are stronger still.

Aside from inherently getting +25% Tax and +1 Prestige from Devotion; they get their +10% morale sooner; and their +1 Free Policies reform is effectively +1/+1/+1 Monarch power per month later in the game, which is more than the ~2 that Republics get from their faster terms.

 

[Gyrvendal]

The nepotism reform is super strong IMO. You get +1 random skill of all candidates, AND a randomly generated "nephew" that is always 30 years old. Granted the stats of the nephew are usually below average but if you reroll every three years you have a pretty good chance of getting a good nephew, that you can keep for about 10 consecutive 3-years terms (if he dies around 60). This guarantees you a 6-6-6 ruler almost 50% of the time, which is insanely good.

Of course that build requires that you give up some absolutism, but for my usual play-style that's not a huge issue.

 

[Rabid]

13 - 14 for a regular monarchy is totally doable.

View attachment 404788

I know because I’ve done it. A lot of the theoretical analysis of disinheriting doesn’t take events into account. Talented and Ambitious Daughter is super-OP.

Yes it's quite difficult to take into account heir events but there are several which give extremely strong heirs.

Hinduism needs a particular nod here as the "Child of Surya" event is basically Talented and Ambitious Daughter on crack - only 15 year MTTH and can fire at any time that you have no heir (except during a regency) without the age restriction of Talented and Ambitious Daughter. It also generates an heir with 4/4/4 base stats meaning that a 6/6/6 is almost standard.

Another way of looking at this is that a Hindu monarchy pursuing an aggressive disinherit strat has a 6.7% every year (that you have no heir) chance of getting a random event heir with guaranteed good stats. This goes up to 9% when your monarch is over 40 (at which point you can have Talented and Ambitious Daughter fire also)

 

[trojan1234]

13 - 14 for a regular monarchy is totally doable.

View attachment 404788

I know because I’ve done it. A lot of the theoretical analysis of disinheriting doesn’t take events into account. Talented and Ambitious Daughter is super-OP.

The simple math of weighted average proves it is 9.74 per month. I told you overestimated.

 

[Badesumofu]

The simple math of weighted average proves it is 9.74 per month. I told you overestimated.

Maybe rerun the numbers. You'll struggle to convince me that the weighted average (and weighting it will yield a higher number than a raw average) is 9.74 when all bar one of those monarchs generates at least 10 MP. Look at the 'sum' column. It doesn't take more than a glance to see that your weighted average is wrong.

I found your mistake. The total power column total does not include the last 3 entries. The months reign column does. That puts you out by quite a bit. Actual weighted average is 13.4.

 

[trojan1234]

Maybe rerun the numbers. You'll struggle to convince me that the weighted average (and weighting it will yield a higher number than a raw average) is 9.74 when all bar one of those monarchs generates at least 10 MP. Look at the 'sum' column. It doesn't take more than a glance to see that your weighted average is wrong.

Oh you are right I made mistake.

 

[makaramus]

Good and interesting analysis of Republics. I'd just point out that we'll run Monarchy with aggressive disinheriting can manage around 13 or 14 MP average over the course of a game.

no it wont
when you get a terrible monarches in a row even by bad luck then you will may forced to keep that ruler for 30 years if you are unlucy
on the other hand worst thing can happen with republics is old rulers. thats all!
you cant pay prestige if you got negative prestige
and if your ruler is too old its risky
and most important thing: you dont get instant heir when you disinherit making it very inconsistent.
yea sure it can be closer to republics but nothing more

 

[Badesumofu]

no it wont

Check my screenshot. Averaged 13.4 MP over the course of a game with aggressive disinheriting as a monarchy.

 

[trojan1234]

Yes it's quite difficult to take into account heir events but there are several which give extremely strong heirs.

Hinduism needs a particular nod here as the "Child of Surya" event is basically Talented and Ambitious Daughter on crack - only 15 year MTTH and can fire at any time that you have no heir (except during a regency) without the age restriction of Talented and Ambitious Daughter. It also generates an heir with 4/4/4 base stats meaning that a 6/6/6 is almost standard.

Another way of looking at this is that a Hindu monarchy pursuing an aggressive disinherit strat has a 6.7% every year (that you have no heir) chance of getting a random event heir with guaranteed good stats. This goes up to 9% when your monarch is over 40 (at which point you can have Talented and Ambitious Daughter fire also)

This seems really cool information and definitely viable strategy. Thanks!

13 - 14 for a regular monarchy is totally doable.

View attachment 404788

I know because I’ve done it. A lot of the theoretical analysis of disinheriting doesn’t take events into account. Talented and Ambitious Daughter is super-OP.

Your case is really lucky I don't think it is reliable strategy imo.

The Talented and Ambitious Daughter events requires ruler age 40 and MTTH 500 month.
i) Ruler dies before age 40 sometimes. and Ruler dies before age 55 frequently.
ii) When you roll good enough heir(10+) before ruler age 40, this strategy will disinherit heir for better heir from events. There are 3 results: 1) If the event doesn't fire before ruler deaths, your ruler dies without heir > random stat next ruler 2) your ruler got generic 0 age heir > high chance of consort regency 3) The event fires before ruler dies (less than half chance). 1) and 2) results are most likely worse than enough heir. Only 3) give you profit but less than 50% chance.
From what I've seen from your rulers, you didn't have any of case 1) (no dynasty change) and have only 1 case of 2) but 14 stat consort which is lucky and at most 4 case 3). This is just lucky case. This strategy can lead to only 1) or 2) with bad consort if bad luck strikes you.

 

[makaramus]

This seems really cool information and definitely viable strategy. Thanks!



Your case is really lucky I don't think it is reliable strategy imo.

The Talented and Ambitious Daughter events requires ruler age 40 and MTTH 500 month.
i) Ruler dies before age 40 sometimes. and Ruler dies before age 55 frequently.
ii) When you roll good enough heir(10+) before ruler age 40, this strategy will disinherit heir for better heir from events. There are 3 results: 1) If the event doesn't fire before ruler deaths, your ruler dies without heir > random stat next ruler 2) your ruler got generic 0 age heir > high chance of consort regency 3) The event fires before ruler dies (less than half chance). 1) and 2) results are most likely worse than enough heir. Only 3) give you profit but less than 50% chance.
From what I've seen from your rulers, you didn't have any of case 1) (no dynasty change) and have only 1 case of 2) but 14 stat consort which is lucky and at most 4 case 3). This is just lucky case. This strategy can lead to only 1) or 2) with bad consort if bad luck strikes you.

he most likely did a lot of savescum in that game(wich I am not aganist ofcourse)

 

[Badesumofu]

he most likely did a lot of savescum in that game(wich I am not aganist ofcourse)

Not polite to talk about me like I’m not here. No savescum in my run.

@trojan1234 look again at the event. The MTTH drops as your ruler ages. I got it twice in that run. Disinherit defies easy reduction to a formula and there is an art to it.

 

[trojan1234]

Not polite to talk about me like I’m not here. No savescum in my run.

@trojan1234 look again at the event. The MTTH drops as your ruler ages. I got it twice in that run. Disinherit defies easy reduction to a formula and there is an art to it.

The event : https://eu4.paradoxwikis.com/Dynastic_events#Talented_and_Ambitious_Daughter has MTTH 500 or 405 month=33.75 years in age 60s.
Look at MTTH descriptioin: https://eu4.paradoxwikis.com/Events, chance to fire event in 30 years(before age 70) is less than half.

 

[Brynjar]

I belive the op is talking about Dharma, not 1.26. As far as I know not much changed for republics in 1.26.

Don't forget to roll young(30ish age) and good stat ruler if your starting ruler is random. It will boost your average MP per month a lot, really a lot. Regarding most starting monarchs are low stats, early game republic is OP in terms on MP generation.

I know it's fairly common to restart for good RNG, but this gets very close to save scumming in my opinion. You may as well suggest rerolling for + republican tradition ruler trait while you are at it.