Obvious pick would be CK2 and try to mod it in such a way that it becomes more 'personal' with events etc. Other games could work as well, but CK2 is closer to where you want to end up going from your first post.
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Actually, not that I have any clue, isn't the concept of having a first person POV of the game that was first described incompatible with CK2, or any version of the clausewitz engine? Wouldn't Mount and Blade make more sense as a starting point? I don't know, just wondering.
I had been thinking and you are right. If there is a volunteer that will be well received for this project.