As much as I like the SoI system, it has some pretty significant faults. For one, the AI's focus tends to be unusual...Ottoman-influenced Two Sicilies or Colombia? American-influenced Tibet...and ahistorical. The problem I see is that the AI's focus is not on establishing a bulwark around it, but rather influencing high-ranking neighbors.
So, given that this system is unlikely to change in a way that would combine the necessity for establishing SoIs in rich markets as well as a bulwark - an alternative is needed - guarantees.
In EU3 and the original Victoria, this system worked quite well. I can understand arguments that the SoI system is a better alternative, but at the same time I don't see why the two can't be used in the same game.
The Ottomans, for example, tend to ignore their own backyard in favor of trying to curry favor with the more lucrative markets of Italy, Persia, India, and South America. I've never seen an Ottoman-influenced Egypt, though they like to stay around friendly to dissuade others. Hedjaz, Nejd, Abu Dhabi, Oman, and Yemen tend to be gobbled up. Clearly the problem is there's no incentive for a nation which claims to be the Caliphate - the protector of the Muslim religion - to bother protecting the Arab peninsula, in particular Mecca itself. Nor is there a reason for Britain to protect it's own backyard in India from the Russians, who tend to park themselves in Persia by game's end.
So, the solution is to bring back Guaranteeing Independence, with the AI focusing on establishing a secure border and maybe for some nations on protecting certain areas - Ottomans in Hedjaz, British in Persia, Americans in South America. Like in previous games, the guarantee is a lighter thing than a full-blown alliance. Politics in South America won't have to go to a standstill because the Americans have put them all in their SoI, but also we won't see Brazil, usually the friend of France, gobbling up Bolivia and Paraguay without anyone bothering to pay attention.
The SoI system is a fantastic improvement in Diplomacy, but it really doesn't seem to include the other part of guarantees - securing one's borders. Guarantees need come back into play to make the game more interesting and put geopolitics in play.
So, given that this system is unlikely to change in a way that would combine the necessity for establishing SoIs in rich markets as well as a bulwark - an alternative is needed - guarantees.
In EU3 and the original Victoria, this system worked quite well. I can understand arguments that the SoI system is a better alternative, but at the same time I don't see why the two can't be used in the same game.
The Ottomans, for example, tend to ignore their own backyard in favor of trying to curry favor with the more lucrative markets of Italy, Persia, India, and South America. I've never seen an Ottoman-influenced Egypt, though they like to stay around friendly to dissuade others. Hedjaz, Nejd, Abu Dhabi, Oman, and Yemen tend to be gobbled up. Clearly the problem is there's no incentive for a nation which claims to be the Caliphate - the protector of the Muslim religion - to bother protecting the Arab peninsula, in particular Mecca itself. Nor is there a reason for Britain to protect it's own backyard in India from the Russians, who tend to park themselves in Persia by game's end.
So, the solution is to bring back Guaranteeing Independence, with the AI focusing on establishing a secure border and maybe for some nations on protecting certain areas - Ottomans in Hedjaz, British in Persia, Americans in South America. Like in previous games, the guarantee is a lighter thing than a full-blown alliance. Politics in South America won't have to go to a standstill because the Americans have put them all in their SoI, but also we won't see Brazil, usually the friend of France, gobbling up Bolivia and Paraguay without anyone bothering to pay attention.
The SoI system is a fantastic improvement in Diplomacy, but it really doesn't seem to include the other part of guarantees - securing one's borders. Guarantees need come back into play to make the game more interesting and put geopolitics in play.
