Hi all,
Coming back to the original question and related answers: things are a bit more complicated. It took me quite some time and testing to figure it out, so let me please just share it with you. First of all, a quick definition of terms ( otherwise it can quickly get confusing ): when you try to place a merchant in a CoT, you may either have to fill an empty slot or to compete another merchant away, and you may either try to enter a CoT that you own or try to enter CoT that you don't own.
" Placement chance " refers to filling an empty slot.
" Compete chance " refers to competing another merchant away.
" Domestic " refers to a CoT you own.
" Abroad " refers to a CoT you don't own.
There are therefore 4 different configurations for calculating your chances of success:
- Domestic placement chance
- Abroad placement chance
- Domestic compete chance
- Abroad compete chance
From this point onwards, I will only speak of
compete chance ( not of placement chance )
The compete chance is affected by a lot of factors, that you can check when you hover the mouse over the shields in the CoT view :
- current ruler admin stats
- advisors, if any
- total placed merchants
- national ideas ( shrewd commerce practice, ... )
- Stability
- Trade efficiency
- prestige
- luck ( for those lucky nations )
- Mercantilism vs Free Trade slider
- Infamy
- Owning non core CoTs
HTTT trading mechanism actually considers 2 different sets of parameters:
- SET1: current ruler stats + advisors + placed merchants + NIs + Stability + TE + prestige + luck.
- SET2: Merc vs Free trade slider + infamy + owning non core CoTs
When you belong to a trade league, your compete chances will consist of : the better of ( your SET1, the trade league owner SET1 ) and the better of ( your SET2, the trade league owner SET2 ).
That means you can have 4 different combinations depending on what the situation is at a certain point in time ( infamy being probably the parameter that impact things the most, whether it is your infamy or your trade league owner's ). I could so far explain everything that happened to me trade-wise with this SET1 / SET2 thing.
One additionnal note on the same subject: the merc vs free trade slider can bring huge benefits to your compete chance, but if you belong to a trade league, remember that what is " domestic " for your trade league owner is not for you. If your trade league owner is full mercantilism for example, that would give him +40% compete chance in his own CoTs and that would also possibly ( depending on whether your set2 is better than his or not ) give you +40%, but in your own CoTs, not his !
