your opinion on operation downfall ? info inside

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alex 9344

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You're telling me they didn't even discuss the possibility until then? I didn't know sources were so exhaustive.



Of course, they tried to grab as much territory as possible.

Regardless of how long it took them to confirm (which really has no bearing on my point since it was confirmed before the surrender), it would have taken an invasion or nukes to make them surrender. They weren't surrendering from firebombings, unfortunately for everyone.



Look, nukes are totally within forum rules to discuss, unlike the other things you seem to be mentioning to try and get this thread closed.

Operation Downfall was not some pipe dream or something that was never going to happen like Operation Unthinkable. It was planned for, soldiers were slotted for invasion. They even made enough Purple Heart medals (the medal the US awards for being wounded or killed in action) that to this day the US hasn't manufactured any more. We still had 120,000 in stock in 2003. That's how high the casualty estimates went.

What we are discussing here are the possibilities the Allies were faced with in 1945. Nukes were one, invasion was another. The Japanese showed no signs of surrender previous to this. Both actions were justified, and horrible at the same time. Either one was necessary to end the war. Downfall would have resulted in far greater loss of life and devastation, and the effects would have been much further reaching. What OP is asking for are our thoughts on the matter, and how the operation would have gone. That is completely within the bounds of discussion here, as are the alternatives to the operation as per the forum rules.

I'm sorry the Japanese got nuked. WWII sucked for everyone involved. However, not discussing the war and the decisions that were made simply because they were hard decisions, decisions that resulted in destruction, is how we lose our history as a human race, and how we cease to understand how the world works.



Sure, they provided pressure, but I've heard people (Soviet stronk-types) argue that the invasion of Manchuria was the reason for Japanese surrender. I was mostly trying to preempt that nonsense. Also, they did confirm the nuclear attack and that the Americans were telling the truth (that it was one bomb) a couple days after Hiroshima IIRC.
Thank you good sir as I provided if the invasion went through as planned in November it would have been a pretty even fight at first 900,000 (Japanese) vs 1 million allies sipan gatual canal even Okinawa would have looked like a slap fight in comparison this was there HOME and they were all instilled (men women and even the children) with the samurai traditions and the concepts of no surrender and if we can take you out with us all the better. We knew we were going to get are teeth kicked in would we eventually win ? Yes could we steam roll them he'll no! Look at how much trouble we had taking tiny little island's some no bigger than New York city central park
 

Vonboe

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I agree, and from what I've seen nobody is glorifying that. They're referencing it as the preferable alternative (for all parties) to Operation Downfall.

With statements like "Thank God for the atom bomb" I beg to differ. All I ask is for people to discuss this with respect that is all.
Again, please respect that Japanese people have another view of the atom bombing than Americans does, a recent pew-research showed that only 14% of Japanese found the U.S. bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was justified.

I will leave this thread for now, good luck with the discussing everyone.
 
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bcoop1701

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Operation Downfall would never have happened regardless of the success of the Manhatten Project. The US was well aware of the massive defensive buildup on Kyushu. Despite Gen. MacArthur's staff low-balling the numbers, the navy had their own estimates that were much closer to reality. Communications between FADM's Nimitz and King prior to the dropping of the atomic bombs made it clear that the Navy was no longer willing to endorse the invasion. It's highly unlikely that Downfall would have had the final go ahead without the Navy's support. Bombing and blockade would have continued until the Japanese government collapsed most likely from civilian revolt. And yes, conditions in Japan were approaching the point where the possibilty of civilian uprising was the primary motivation of the peace faction in the Big Six - the ministers and generals/admirals that actually controlled the government. Conditions would have only gotten worse with continued blockade and bombing.

I highly recommend Operation Downfall by Richard Frank for more detail on the planning for Downfall and the eventual surrender of Japan.
 
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alex 9344

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With statements like "Thank God for the atom bomb" I beg to differ. All I ask is for people to discuss this with respect that is all.
Again, please respect that Japanese people have another view of the atom bombing than Americans does, a recent pew-research showed that only 14% of Japanese found the U.S. bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was justified.

I will leave this thread for now, good luck with the discussing everyone.
We are not saying thank God for the atom bomb because yay we nuke Japan

What the people' are saying is thank God we used the atom bomb instead of going through with the invasion because if we took the invasion there was a very very real possibility that 90% of the Japanese people would be dead and an estimated 1 million American soldiers so in comparison to the death toll of operation downfall the atom bomb saved an unthinkable amount of BOTH Japanese and Americans lives
 
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alex 9344

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Operation Downfall would never have happened regardless of the success of the Manhatten Project. The US was well aware of the massive defensive buildup on Kyushu. Despite Gen. MacArthur's staff low-balling the numbers, the navy had their own estimates that were much closer to reality. Communications between FADM's Nimitz and King prior to the dropping of the atomic bombs made it clear that the Navy was no longer willing to endorse the invasion. It's highly unlikely that Downfall would have had the final go ahead without the Navy's support. Bombing and blockade would have continued until the Japanese government collapsed most likely from civilian revolt. And yes, conditions in Japan were approaching the point where the possibilty of civilian uprising was the primary motivation of the peace faction in the Big Six - the ministers and generals/admirals that actually controlled the government. Conditions would have only gotten worse with continued blockade and bombing.

I highly recommend Operation Downfall by Richard Frank for more detail on the planning for Downfall and the eventual surrender of Japan.
Hey thanks but I researched and from what I dug up the leadership was split half for continuing the war the other half wanted peace until the emperor himself broke the deadlock

And thanks a bunch for the book recommendation I'm a huge reader haha so it should be a great read!
 

Caesar15

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With statements like "Thank God for the atom bomb" I beg to differ. All I ask is for people to discuss this with respect that is all.
Again, please respect that Japanese people have another view of the atom bombing than Americans does, a recent pew-research showed that only 14% of Japanese found the U.S. bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was justified.

I will leave this thread for now, good luck with the discussing everyone.

And what do those 86% think would have been a better alternative? Serious question.
 

alex 9344

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Also any way to get the devs in on the discussion I would love there opinion on operation downfall based on all info provided in the thread he'll I think it would be really cool alternate history dlc starting from I think scipan (if that was late 44) going through iwo jima Okinawa then operation downfall I also just generally want to try to create this scenario in a mp match once the game is out if anyone is interested?

I have a rough idea of how I want it set up in game I can put it up in another thread if people like the idea of playing out a alternate end to the Pacific war let me know

but please keep the original discussions going I love reading your guy's thoughts on the end of the Pacific war! :)
 

hkrommel

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With statements like "Thank God for the atom bomb" I beg to differ.

That's not what that means. It's literally a "thank you, God" that we didn't have to go through with the invasion or any of the other alternatives that would have been much, much worse.

only 14% of Japanese found the U.S. bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was justified.

When public opinion determines what is true, let me know. I don't mean to be abrasive, it's just that it bothers me when people think just because a certain number of people think something, it must be true.

I highly recommend Operation Downfall by Richard Frank for more detail on the planning for Downfall and the eventual surrender of Japan.

I've only read some parts of it, I've been meaning to finish it but college gets in the way of that. Excellent book so far.

Also any way to get the devs in on the discussion I would love there opinion on operation downfall based on all info provided in the thread he'll I think it would be really cool alternate history dlc starting from I think scipan (if that was late 44) going through iwo jima Okinawa then operation downfall I also just generally want to try to create this scenario in a mp match once the game is out if anyone is interested?

They had a Downfall scenario in Darkest Hour, and also HoI 3 IIRC. I really hope they put some of those scenarios in through DLC. Sometimes it's fun to just play a short while with the combat mechanics only, especially in scenarios that don't arise when playing the full game.

And what do those 86% think would have been a better alternative? Serious question.

Basically this. I just don't see a better option here, by any measure of the word "better" whether it be morals, efficiency, geopolitical impact, etc.
 
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bcoop1701

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Hey thanks but I researched and from what I dug up the leadership was split half for continuing the war the other half wanted peace until the emperor himself broke the deadlock


And thanks a bunch for the book recommendation I'm a huge reader haha so it should be a great read!

You are absolutely correct. Even after the Nagasaki attack, the Big Six were split and so the Prime Minister took the unprecedented step of asking the Emperor who then broke the deadlock by deciding for peace.

I was only trying to say that one of the primary motivations for the peace faction (the group willing to accept surrender with only the condition of the preservation of the Emperor) to exist in the first place was the concern that conditions were beginning to indicate a rising dissatisfaction with the government to the point that they were actually considering the possibilty of civilian revolt and wanted to end the war before it got to that point. The one-condition faction was the clear minority until after the dropping of the atomic bombs.
 
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Adonnus

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The Terrain in Japan is quite varied, but much more open than the Jungles the Americans had been fighting in previously. I think the Yanks would be quite a bit more successful especially if they brought in European veterans as planned. The US army had a masterful ability to cooperate with Air Support at this point in the war and it'd be a big strength and a strong counter to the dug in defences Japan had.

It'd be very demoralising for the Japanese troops..every time they got into an extended fight, it wouldn't be long until the Corsairs turned up and started bombing them.

I would have to disagree here. It's not like this was the first time Japanese troops experienced Allied firepower on a massive scale that they couldn't counter or compete with. We all know, of course, the Japanese spirit during the war - egged on by their officers - meant that a breakdown of morale in any situation, I think would not be all that likely. I mean when you're in a situation where you can either 1. surrender or 2. die and the vast majority choose the second option, as was the case for pretty much the whole Pacific War, and that with the knowledge that Allied superiority and victory is basically guaranteed, I don't think there is going to be anything much that will break Japanese morale to any real extent.
 

alex 9344

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That's not what that means. It's literally a "thank you, God" that we didn't have to go through with the invasion or any of the other alternatives that would have been much, much worse.



When public opinion determines what is true, let me know. I don't mean to be abrasive, it's just that it bothers me when people think just because a certain number of people think something, it must be true.



I've only read some parts of it, I've been meaning to finish it but college gets in the way of that. Excellent book so far.



They had a Downfall scenario in Darkest Hour, and also HoI 3 IIRC. I really hope they put some of those scenarios in through DLC. Sometimes it's fun to just play a short while with the combat mechanics only, especially in scenarios that don't arise when playing the full game.



Basically this. I just don't see a better option here, by any measure of the word "better" whether it be morals, efficiency, geopolitical impact, etc.
Can you link me to any info on that dlc? Or any playthrough of operation downfall? And what is iirc ? So are you interested in my operation downfall mp match idea?
 

Porkman

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You're telling me they didn't even discuss the possibility until then? I didn't know sources were so exhaustive.



Of course, they tried to grab as much territory as possible.

Regardless of how long it took them to confirm (which really has no bearing on my point since it was confirmed before the surrender), it would have taken an invasion or nukes to make them surrender. They weren't surrendering from firebombings, unfortunately for everyone.



Look, nukes are totally within forum rules to discuss, unlike the other things you seem to be mentioning to try and get this thread closed.

Operation Downfall was not some pipe dream or something that was never going to happen like Operation Unthinkable. It was planned for, soldiers were slotted for invasion. They even made enough Purple Heart medals (the medal the US awards for being wounded or killed in action) that to this day the US hasn't manufactured any more. We still had 120,000 in stock in 2003. That's how high the casualty estimates went.

What we are discussing here are the possibilities the Allies were faced with in 1945. Nukes were one, invasion was another. The Japanese showed no signs of surrender previous to this. Both actions were justified, and horrible at the same time. Either one was necessary to end the war. Downfall would have resulted in far greater loss of life and devastation, and the effects would have been much further reaching. What OP is asking for are our thoughts on the matter, and how the operation would have gone. That is completely within the bounds of discussion here, as are the alternatives to the operation as per the forum rules.

I'm sorry the Japanese got nuked. WWII sucked for everyone involved. However, not discussing the war and the decisions that were made simply because they were hard decisions, decisions that resulted in destruction, is how we lose our history as a human race, and how we cease to understand how the world works.
.


The Japanese were holding out for q conditional surrender. They wanted to retain the imperial family and have no occupation of Japan, Taiwan and Korea. Some Japanese people thought it was plausible because they hadn't been beaten on mainland Asia and thought the Americans wouldn't stomach invasion.

The Soviet invasion of Manchuria showed the Japanese that there was no point in holding out to preserve thE empire from occupation after the war.
 
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Amur_Tiger

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Did the Soviets help? Yes. Was the help that significant? Considering that they didn't really have the capability to pose a credible threat to the entirety of Hokkaido (even if they did land enough men to gain a beachhead, the Japanese aren't going to ignore that, and they would have very limited supply capacity due to the quality of ports and infrastructure on the north side of the island), let alone Honshu, I don't think so. I don't think it pushed the Japanese over the edge. It certainly troubled them but I don't think there was any danger of the Soviets actually invading (especially since it would break the Potsdam Agreements and Truman specifically told Stalin to stay out of Japan).

Certainly the Soviets weren't significant as a whole but there's a few factual errors there that's really twisting the perception of things.

The Soviet 16th Army — 100,000 strong — launched an invasion of the southern half of Sakhalin Island. Their orders were to mop up Japanese resistance there, and then — within 10 to 14 days — be prepared to invade Hokkaido, the northernmost of Japan’s home islands. The Japanese force tasked with defending Hokkaido, the 5th Area Army, was under strength at two divisions and two brigades, and was in fortified positions on the east side of the island. The Soviet plan of attack called for an invasion of Hokkaido from the west.

The Soviets certainly were a threat to the main islands, the distances involved and the weakness of the forces against them completely changed the dynamic compared to US invasion of Japan, which wasn't expect for a month.

Furthermore nothing about Potsdam makes Soviet invasion of Japan a problem, all it did was insure that Hokkkaido would be part of Japan when the dust settled. What Truman wanted was unlikely to have any effect on what Stalin did given his hostility towards the Soviets in general, Roosevelt might have had some success in convincing Stalin but with his death that door was closed.
 
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hkrommel

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The Japanese were holding out for q conditional surrender. They wanted to retain the imperial family and have no occupation of Japan, Taiwan and Korea. Some Japanese people thought it was plausible because they hadn't been beaten on mainland Asia and thought the Americans wouldn't stomach invasion.

The Soviet invasion of Manchuria showed the Japanese that there was no point in holding out to preserve thE empire from occupation after the war.

There's a huge difference between something not being considered at all, and some people thinking they can hold out. Either way, the Soviets were not landing on the home islands. Civilian unrest was really the deciding factor, as stated by others above.

Can you link me to any info on that dlc? Or any playthrough of operation downfall? And what is iirc ? So are you interested in my operation downfall mp match idea?

I don't think it was DLC but I'm not sure, I'm pretty sure it was just a scenario like Battle of the Bulge, Fall Blau, etc.

The Soviets certainly were a threat to the main islands, the distances involved and the weakness of the forces against them completely changed the dynamic compared to US invasion of Japan, which wasn't expect for a month.

How will they get around the mines? How will they respond to Japanese reinforcements? how will they supply their troops at all without sufficient port capacity?

They quite simply couldn't supply enough soldiers to occupy the whole island, let alone move to other islands. They had a plan to invade (everyone has a plan for everything, see War Plan Red) but it was quickly decided against. They would be scraping to get enough amphibious capacity to land even those soldiers under a contested landing scenario, which due to the limited number of suitable beaches was sure to be the case.

Just look at the Battle of Shumshu. Imagine that, against more forces on the Home Islands in hostile terrain without an operational port.
 
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We are not saying thank God for the atom bomb because yay we nuke Japan

What the people' are saying is thank God we used the atom bomb instead of going through with the invasion because if we took the invasion there was a very very real possibility that 90% of the Japanese people would be dead and an estimated 1 million American soldiers so in comparison to the death toll of operation downfall the atom bomb saved an unthinkable amount of BOTH Japanese and Americans lives

Hitler also believe the jews would destroy the civilization, so I guess he was trying to save everyone? Is that justifiable?
Or if the US hadn't annexed the Kingdom of Hawaii, pearl harbour wouldn't had happen?
Maybe if the Japanese military hadn't committed the nanjing massacre a huge Chinese rebellion would had happened and many more civilians and Japanese soldiers would had died? Is that justifiable?

As for alternatives, already in early summer 1945 the Japanese high command were looking for a diplomatic way out of the war ( had already offered the Soviet peace but they declined because they were getting ready to join the Allies ). But the Allies had made the Potsdam Declaration, demanding “unconditional surrender,” even though Japanese home land still weren't touched ( unlike Germany ) and emphasized the need to remove “obstacles” preventing the “democratic tendencies” of the Japanese people. Which the Japanese high command believed ment getting rid of the Japanese emporer. Futher more a number of the scientist of the manhattan project believe it would be for the best to bomb a uninhabited area/island first to scare the Japanese government, instead the US government droppped two atoms bombs with-in 3 days on civilian targets with no chance for the Japanese high command to act with-in such a short time. Hell, even Truman demanded that any further bombs should only be dropped on personal order from him due to the tricker happiness of the US military command.

Operation downfall was "planned" for november so they still had a long time to get to terms with the Japanese high command without the use of invasion or atomic bombing.
 
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Amur_Tiger

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How will they get around the mines? How will they respond to Japanese reinforcements? how will they supply their troops at all without sufficient port capacity?

They quite simply couldn't supply enough soldiers to occupy the whole island, let alone move to other islands. They had a plan to invade (everyone has a plan for everything, see War Plan Red) but it was quickly decided against. They would be scraping to get enough amphibious capacity to land even those soldiers under a contested landing scenario, which due to the limited number of suitable beaches was sure to be the case.

Just look at the Battle of Shumshu. Imagine that, against more forces on the Home Islands in hostile terrain without an operational port.

With their 52 minesweepers of course they'd clear the mines and if they had enough amphibious equipment to move that army to Sakhalin in the first place then they're probably going to be able to move it to Hokkaido.

This wasn't merely a plan, they had orders to carry this out once they finished up with Sakhalin and I don't see any reason why they wouldn't have been able to achieve this. Opposed landings are hard but it would be a huge mistake to think that the Japanese are going to be able to put up a fraction of the fight the Germans put up in Normandy against the Soviets, the forces available, the quality of their equipment and training and the unexpectedness of this line of attack all favored the Soviets.
 
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alex 9344

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Hitler also believe the jews would destroy the civilization, so I guess he was trying to save everyone? Is that justifiable?
Or if the US hadn't annexed the Kingdom of Hawaii, pearl harbour wouldn't had happen?
Maybe if the Japanese military hadn't committed the nanjing massacre a huge Chinese rebellion would had happened and many more civilians and Japanese soldiers would had died? Is that justifiable?

As for alternatives, already in early summer 1945 the Japanese high command were looking for a diplomatic way out of the war ( had already offered the Soviet peace but they declined because they were getting ready to join the Allies ). But the Allies had made the Potsdam Declaration, demanding “unconditional surrender,” even though Japanese home land still weren't touched ( unlike Germany ) and emphasized the need to remove “obstacles” preventing the “democratic tendencies” of the Japanese people. Which the Japanese high command believed ment getting rid of the Japanese emporer. Futher more a number of the scientist of the manhattan project believe it would be for the best to bomb a uninhabited area/island first to scare the Japanese government, instead the US government droppped two atoms bombs with-in 3 days on civilian targets with no chance for the Japanese high command to act with-in such a short time. Hell even Truman demanded that any further bombs should only be dropped on personal order from him due the tricker happiness of the US military command.

Operation downfall was "planned" for november so they still had a long time to get to terms with the Japanese high command without the use of invasion or atomic bombing.
No None of that should have happened but it was a decision between the lesser of two evils
And as far as Japan wanting peace only half of high command wanted it it took the emperor to break the deadlock and more than likely eventually the ones who wanted peace would have been killed on grounds of treason
And here is another reason t bomb was the better choice when Japan surrendered the islands we bypassed and even some we occupied never got the orders to surrender and in the case of the troops we missed on occupational island's still fought (granted it was usually 70 to 80 man units we missed) they fought on till 1977 is when the last men where killed now imagine that but 900,000 well armed Fed and elite Japanese troops because that was what we would have fought if we invaded yes the atom bomb was horrible BUT the invasion of Japan would have literally had the streets of Japan flowing with blood it would have led to the death of Japan itself
 

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With their 52 minesweepers of course they'd clear the mines and if they had enough amphibious equipment to move that army to Sakhalin in the first place then they're probably going to be able to move it to Hokkaido.

They didn't even know the mines were there, and it would significantly delay any operation once discovered.

Again, look at the Battle of Shumshu. Because they performed so poorly the Soviets decided not to invade Hokkaido barring massive preparation even if their operation in the Kuril Islands was a success (and that was in doubt).

Also, where are you conjuring this magical port capacity with which the Soviets would supply their troops? Not to mention there weren't many favorable beaches and the best landing sites were all fortified, some as early as the Russo-Japanese war!

Opposed landings are hard but it would be a huge mistake to think that the Japanese are going to be able to put up a fraction of the fight the Germans put up in Normandy against the Soviets

This is a joke, right? Normandy was incredibly easy at everywhere but Omaha beach. The German formations were barely second-line. Considering that Japanese troops fought to the death on random pieces of land with zero inhabitants in the middle of the Pacific, what more would they do on the Home Islands?

Even if the Soviets mount a successful landing (which they were barely capable of against token resistance), how will they move inland at all? How will they cope with Japanese reinforcements? How will they be supplied? It's not like they are going be be constructing artificial ports like in Overlord. Where will the supplies come from?
 
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No None of that should have happened but it was a decision between the lesser of two evils
And as far as Japan wanting peace only half of high command wanted it it took the emperor to break the deadlock and more than likely eventually the ones who wanted peace would have been killed on grounds of treason
And here is another reason t bomb was the better choice when Japan surrendered the islands we bypassed and even some we occupied never got the orders to surrender and in the case of the troops we missed on occupational island's still fought (granted it was usually 70 to 80 man units we missed) they fought on till 1977 is when the last men where killed now imagine that but 900,000 well armed Fed and elite Japanese troops because that was what we would have fought if we invaded yes the atom bomb was horrible BUT the invasion of Japan would have literally had the streets of Japan flowing with blood it would have led to the death of Japan itself
I really can't take those "what if" scenarios serious to justify mass-murder of civilians, that is like saying ìf only the US had surrendered I guess no US soldiers or Japanese civilians would had died at all.
The atomic bombing didn't had to happen, the US wanted it to happen.
 
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Porkman

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They didn't even know the mines were there, and it would significantly delay any operation once discovered.

Why do you think the Soviets didn't know about the mines? Soviet ships were still sailing across the Pacific and offloading in Vladivostok. The allies wee definitEly telling the Soviets about general location of the minefields around Japan
 
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