Yet another WW2 could Germany have won if... thread

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Sanny

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The idea is from top to bottom nonsensical and people really need to stop repeating this bad, bad history. It is an idea that rests entirely on the silly pop-culture notion that Germany was this amazing fighting force lightyears ahead of it's time.
I never said that at all, if you actually look at the individual battles particular the tank battles whilst the British lines were being penetrated. The tank tactics were superior. All of the tactics and doctrines were superior to what the British had as doctrines, the British were still trying to fight WW1 during France 1940. Germany also had some more effective younger commanders on the field during the invasion (who also invaded Poland) than those defending most of which were aging WW1 officers.

Anyway this thread was about Operation Sea Lion not Dunkirk.
 

keynes2.0

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Some historians that haven't been dead for 50 years and aren't known mostly for the controversial nature of their work:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-07-24/why-the-germans-blew-it-at-dunkirk said:
James Gibney: Is there a consensus among historians about why the German military halted outside Dunkirk on May 24?
Rob Citino: No, and there never will be. The entire operational sequence is too complex, even convoluted, and it doesn't help that Adolf Hitler and the Germans themselves were all over the map in explaining it: bad terrain, a desire to let the Luftwaffe alone smash the beachhead, a desire to spare the Panzers, Hitler's desire to cut a deal with the "Aryan" British (this last one is utter nonsense). Both during and after the war, the Germans threw up so much chaff on this question that sorting it out is nearly impossible.
(emphasis added)

https://defenceindepth.co/2016/07/11/the-dunkirk-evacuation-and-the-german-halt-order/ said:
There are exceptions, which deserve nothing other than a good intellectual kicking. For me, there is one particularly egregious example which simply refuses to lie down and die, coming back again and again like the baddie in a cheap horror movie.[...]This let-off has given rise to the bizarre idea that it was a deliberate decision by Hitler to provide a ‘golden bridge’ for Britain, consciously choosing not to utterly humiliate his opponent in the hope of reaching a negotiated peace.
[...]
First, even on its own terms, it does not make any sense.
[...]
Second, the theory does not fit the facts.
[...]
Third, there is a perfectly good explanation available that does not require a far-fetched conspiracy theory – and which, incidentally, is whole-heartedly accepted by every serious work on the subject that uses German sources.

The order originated in the German military. Then it went up to Hitler because it was a major decision. This is no different from how the plan for the Normandy invasions originated in the allied supreme command then went up to Churchill and Roosevelt.

All of the tactics and doctrines were superior to what the British had as doctrines, the British were still trying to fight WW1 during France 1940.

You are now supporting a myth with another myth...

Anyway this thread was about Operation Sea Lion not Dunkirk.

If you are going to replace facts with myths then it's not about anything at all.
 

Culise

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I'm a little curious; people keep saying here that crushing the BEF at Dunkirk would have been a key part of a German victory, but how practical was it? To my understanding, Kluge and Rundstedt ordered the brief halt May 21 in order to preserve their mobile forces and permit them the chance to recuperate in the wake of Arras, a course of action Hitler confirmed on the 24th after meeting with Rundstedt. It also gave them two days to move up infantry forces on foot to ensure the attack went through in a great big push. Most of this came to light well after Liddel Hart's seminal work with his primary sources being many of these generals, who were themselves quite keen on shifting as much blame as they could to Hitler. It certainly served Rundstedt and Guderian well, to name two, to blame as much as they could on Hitler to preserve the "purity" of the Wehrmacht; being deceased as well as vilified, he could hardly defend himself.

Beyond this, the idea that Hitler thought that permitting the BEF to escape would permit peace was not entirely clear. It does seem rather odd, however, considering that orders that went out on the 24th called for the annihilation of the pocket and the soldiers within. What it feels like to me is that Rundstedt decided he needed to consolidate his forces for a moment before moving forward again; hence, he ordered the halts on the 15th and 21st, and though there's less documentation on what went on during the meeting, by this precedent likely played a role in ensuring another halt on the 24th-25th.

Also, fun detail, since the mention was brought up of it: if Hitler hadn't meddled at all, France would have lasted much longer and may not have fallen at all. The OKW was never enamored with Manstein's little notion of a push through the Ardennes. They wanted a direct punch through Belgium as had been conducted in World War 1, and they were concerned that concentrating their armored forces in such a manner would make them impossible to supply or maneuver (accurately, but I digress). Manstein and Rundstedt won out because they went over Halder's head to Hitler, who loved the idea and gave it his own seal of approval. Halder being Halder, he immediately reversed his own coat and decided the idea was brilliant all along. It seems to me that the OKW's intentions would have smashed right into the Dyle Line and French reserve forces, instead of cutting them off as occurred historically. Indeed, this is part of the reason why Hitler was able to so effectively and so dangerously interfere later; he had already pulled one rabbit out of his hat.
 

Andre Bolkonsky

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This site never ceases to amuse.

I post a list of direct quotes with footnotes, and someone ‘politely disagrees.

With what are they disagreeing?
 
Last edited:

bz249

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I'm a little curious; people keep saying here that crushing the BEF at Dunkirk would have been a key part of a German victory, but how practical was it? To my understanding, Kluge and Rundstedt ordered the brief halt May 21 in order to preserve their mobile forces and permit them the chance to recuperate in the wake of Arras, a course of action Hitler confirmed on the 24th after meeting with Rundstedt. It also gave them two days to move up infantry forces on foot to ensure the attack went through in a great big push. Most of this came to light well after Liddel Hart's seminal work with his primary sources being many of these generals, who were themselves quite keen on shifting as much blame as they could to Hitler. It certainly served Rundstedt and Guderian well, to name two, to blame as much as they could on Hitler to preserve the "purity" of the Wehrmacht; being deceased as well as vilified, he could hardly defend himself.

Beyond this, the idea that Hitler thought that permitting the BEF to escape would permit peace was not entirely clear. It does seem rather odd, however, considering that orders that went out on the 24th called for the annihilation of the pocket and the soldiers within. What it feels like to me is that Rundstedt decided he needed to consolidate his forces for a moment before moving forward again; hence, he ordered the halts on the 15th and 21st, and though there's less documentation on what went on during the meeting, by this precedent likely played a role in ensuring another halt on the 24th-25th.

Also, fun detail, since the mention was brought up of it: if Hitler hadn't meddled at all, France would have lasted much longer and may not have fallen at all. The OKW was never enamored with Manstein's little notion of a push through the Ardennes. They wanted a direct punch through Belgium as had been conducted in World War 1, and they were concerned that concentrating their armored forces in such a manner would make them impossible to supply or maneuver (accurately, but I digress). Manstein and Rundstedt won out because they went over Halder's head to Hitler, who loved the idea and gave it his own seal of approval. Halder being Halder, he immediately reversed his own coat and decided the idea was brilliant all along. It seems to me that the OKW's intentions would have smashed right into the Dyle Line and French reserve forces, instead of cutting them off as occurred historically. Indeed, this is part of the reason why Hitler was able to so effectively and so dangerously interfere later; he had already pulled one rabbit out of his hat.

Or it would have been a major battle of annihilation leaving the British disorganized. The feint force effectively eliminated those best French troops. Due to the losses during the march, the actual Battle of Hannut and the following retreat the French Cavalry Corps ceased to be exist as a coherent fighting force... The shattered French units did something here and there but they were toast.

Now put the BEF into the thick of the action and see how they perform. Based on their irl behavior they going to shatter.

So indeed the only question is the supply from the German side: would the renewed Schlieffen would allow them to outshot the Allies? If yes they going to win, because the side which send more lead to the others tends to win.

The battle will be more bloody for the Krauts too, but the Limeys will not have the luxury to retreat undisturbed and it might have been a war winner for the Germans.
 

Sanny

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According to Rommel's memoirs, the halt order was because the Mobilised and Panzer divisions were a couple of days ahead of the Infantry. And everyone needed rest as they had covered a lot of ground and captured more towns than expected within the time-frame. They hadn't stopped pushing since Blitzkrieg started. They were to wait for the infantry to catch up and then await for the order to envelop the British and close the pocket at Dunkirk. It was to Rommel's understanding that this was going to be the plan. Photo below is believed to be one of the few that actually shows Rommel's Panzer Division halted awaiting the Infantry to catch up. Unsure if that is binoculars or a camera in his hand, he apparently took quite a few photographs during Blitzkrieg 1940.

9efee98999e0d42474f4ee75978e339f--rommel-wwii.jpg
 
Last edited:

DoomBunny

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Yeah, I'm not seeing this working. You have to fly your airborne troops a long way through hostile airspace, maintain the airhead, capture enough territory to convince the British they've lost (using a single parachute division and IIRC an airlanding as well) and all this in Cornwall, which has a strategic value of nil, and which is a terrible place to advance into the rest of the UK from.

I never said that at all, if you actually look at the individual battles particular the tank battles whilst the British lines were being penetrated. The tank tactics were superior. All of the tactics and doctrines were superior to what the British had as doctrines, the British were still trying to fight WW1 during France 1940. Germany also had some more effective younger commanders on the field during the invasion (who also invaded Poland) than those defending most of which were aging WW1 officers.

Anyway this thread was about Operation Sea Lion not Dunkirk.

Trying to fight WW1, with a fully motorized army that placed an emphasis on mobility?

As for the Dunkirk question, well, there was a big gap in performance in the Allied forces between the strategic/operational and tactical levels. On the former two, the Allies really did have major problems, on the latter they weren't so badly outclassed as is often assumed. Really, the Germans won in France by avoiding rather than outfighting the BEF and the cream (ok, creme) of the French forces. Whether Dunkirk would have been a walkover is dubious.
 

Andre Bolkonsky

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The order originated in the German military. Then it went up to Hitler because it was a major decision. This is no different from how the plan for the Normandy invasions originated in the allied supreme command then went up to Churchill and Roosevelt.

According to Rommel's memoirs, the halt order was because the Mobilised and Panzer divisions were a couple of days ahead of the Infantry. And everyone needed rest as they had covered a lot of ground and captured more towns than expected within the time-frame. They hadn't stopped pushing since Blitzkrieg started. They were to wait for the infantry to catch up and then await for the order to envelop the British and close the pocket at Dunkirk. It was to Rommel's understanding that this was going to be the plan. Photo below is believed to be one of the few that actually shows Rommel's Panzer Division halted awaiting the Infantry to catch up. Unsure if that is binoculars or a camera in his hand, he apparently took quite a few photographs during Blitzkrieg 1940.

9efee98999e0d42474f4ee75978e339f--rommel-wwii.jpg

Yes. Runstedt ordered his armor to pull up for rest and reinforcements, wait for the infantry to wheel into the line, then resume the offensive.

At this moment, Hitler visited Runstedt's headquarters, already in a Fuhrer-state of rage and fear. Full of his own memories of the marshy Flanders ground and worried about his precious panzers, his concerns reinforced by his military lapdog, Keitel; Rundstedt's temporary pause reinforced Hitler's fears, and Fat Herman began whispering in his ear.

Better to give the victory to the Great Hero of the Nazi Party, Goering, than to the over-priveleged Prussians.

So, the Army's temporary halt was made permanent by order of Adolph Hitler. The fact the panzer leaders began howling when they were not taken off the leash and allowed to resume the hunt is evidence of this.

Hitler is a complicated individual, it is not certain even he could explain the true socio-miliary-political flow of this own thoughts. And if he could, he certainly would only explain it in a way that exculpated himself. Certainly, more than one general can mention Hitler speaking of Britain and a possible peace treaty, but whether or not it was a primary motivation is a very, very gray area in a very, very muddled brain. His memory of the marshy terrain, his hatred of the Prussians, Goering's desire for glory; all these are part of the equation.

Bottom line, the Fuhrer made the final decision and handed the ball to the Luftwaffe. Goering dropped the ball, the British slipped away and took many Frenchmen with them. Thank God. Men were precious, equipment can be replaced.

Speaking of which, it's about time for 'Dunkirk' to come out on DVD, no?
Edit: December 17
 

keynes2.0

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Due to the losses during the march, the actual Battle of Hannut and the following retreat the French Cavalry Corps ceased to be exist as a coherent fighting force... The shattered French units did something here and there but they were toast.

The units you are talking about fought the cream of the German army for days after arriving at Dunkirk and you are saying they did nothing.

At some point the tropes just drown out the history.

Trying to fight WW1, with a fully motorized army that placed an emphasis on mobility?

Not to mention the belief in the invincibility of airpower, which we often forgot about because wartime experience soon corrected that belief.
 

bz249

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The units you are talking about fought the cream of the German army for days after arriving at Dunkirk and you are saying they did nothing.

At some point the tropes just drown out the history.

.

Soldiers/fragments of the Cavalry Corps did that... But not the Cavalry Corps, because they were spent, or can you pinpoint me the actions of the Cavalry Corps (i.e. a coherent unit) after Hannut? Because there is those penny packeting myth in the history (which was in reality not an intentional thing just this is what happens when a unit shatter into small fragments each fighting on their own).
 

keynes2.0

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So to clarify, you are saying that these were "toast" you meant that they continued to fight successfully, just not in the original OOB.
 

bz249

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So to clarify, you are saying that these were "toast" you meant that they continued to fight successfully, just not in the original OOB.

They did "delaying action" which means they fought where they were caught. This is an armed mob level of organisation.
This unit supposed to be a strong armored spearhead doing mobile warfare. Is being encircled and do a 4 day long delaying action what such a unit supposed to do on the battlefield?
 

keynes2.0

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So it's just a funky coincidence that they were all "caught" in a defensive perimeter around Dunkirk. Strange how that happens, one might even be tempted to call it a deliberate strategy but everyone knows that it's only Germans who do strategy.
 

bz249

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So it's just a funky coincidence that they were all "caught" in a defensive perimeter around Dunkirk. Strange how that happens, one might even be tempted to call it a deliberate strategy but everyone knows that it's only Germans who do strategy.

So you mean those troops in Lille deliberately decided to be encircled there and fulfilled the plan of the General Staff not just happened to be there after a sauv qui peut style general and uncoordinated rout?
So it did indeed run like a clockwork for the Allies! To bad the stupid French GHQ did plan that the Germans encircle their own army and not the French the German one. Had Gamelin realize they should have encircle the Germans they might have win.
 

keynes2.0

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So you mean those troops in Lille deliberately decided to be encircled there and fulfilled the plan of the General Staff

Nope. Because I happen to believe that war is a pretty chaotic thing. The goalposts get moved a lot.
 

bz249

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Nope. Because I happen to believe that war is a pretty chaotic thing. The goalposts get moved a lot.

Yes and this time the allied achieved what Oscar did in the World Cup semi finals in 2014.
Success starts somewhere at defense against Market Garden (reorganizing an armed mob into a coherent defensive line and deny the most ambitious goals of the enemy)... But this still a very low bar.
 

mork77

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regarding the hold order

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Dunkirk#Halt_order

It was a Quarrel in th german high command, nothing more. Rundstedt gave the halt order to show everyone that he was in command. He was supported by Hitler in this. There were good military reasons for and against a hold order.

Was it a mistake? We will never find out. We can be quite certain though, that the " Hitler wanted the British forces to escape to make Peace" is a myth!

Regartding the paratrooper question

No. Germany had no means to just use paratroopers. Go to June 6 1944 to get an idea what you needed for a successful invasion.

The Germans needed at least air superiority. And with that i mean total control of the airspace around the invasion area.
 

thedarkendstar

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regarding the hold order

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Dunkirk#Halt_order

It was a Quarrel in th german high command, nothing more. Rundstedt gave the halt order to show everyone that he was in command. He was supported by Hitler in this. There were good military reasons for and against a hold order.

Was it a mistake? We will never find out. We can be quite certain though, that the " Hitler wanted the British forces to escape to make Peace" is a myth!

Regartding the paratrooper question

No. Germany had no means to just use paratroopers. Go to June 6 1944 to get an idea what you needed for a successful invasion.

The Germans needed at least air superiority. And with that i mean total control of the airspace around the invasion area.
So basically win the battle of Britain.

I thought perhaps the best way for a German Victory is the capture of the forces at Dunkirk and using it to leverage a peace with Britain not losing much but France and Poland losing quite a bit.
 

George Parr

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Rundstedt gave the halt order to show everyone that he was in command.

Not sure were you get this bit from. Rundstedt gave this order because he considered it to be the right move, not because he wanted to show anyone that he was in command.

He was always more of the cautious type, which is why he didn't want to take the risk of an allied breakthrough that could encircle the spearhead. This opinion was further strengthened by reports that Panzergroup Kleist was taking heavy losses, which wasn't really the case. Those reports were more an angry reaction towards getting sidetracked by additional orders than a true report of the losses. von Brauchitsch overruled the decision, because he and Halder were convinced that this was going to succeed. Thus he moved the 4th Army over to Army Group B to finish off the allies in the pocket, while Army Group A should deal with the front to mainland France. This was a logical move, considering that AG B was facing the encircled troops anyway while AG A had to divide its attention between the two.

The only one who wanted to show everyone that he was in command was Hitler. von Brauchitsch couldn't inform him of this move, because Hitler was currently travelling at that time, and when he arrived near the front, it was von Rundstedt who first got to talk to him, who obviously had a slanted view of this whole matter. Thus Hitler got involved based on just having heard half the picture, while also being upset about OKH doing this without telling him. He took the 4th Army and moved it back under AG A's command, with the explicit order that AG A would decide on its own when to proceed, without any influence from OKH.
 

Graf Zeppelin

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I never said that at all, if you actually look at the individual battles particular the tank battles whilst the British lines were being penetrated. The tank tactics were superior. All of the tactics and doctrines were superior to what the British had as doctrines, the British were still trying to fight WW1 during France 1940. Germany also had some more effective younger commanders on the field during the invasion (who also invaded Poland) than those defending most of which were aging WW1 officers.

Anyway this thread was about Operation Sea Lion not Dunkirk.
What a bunch of nonsense.
If anything German tank usage on operational and maybe "strategical" usage was superior. Tactics of German tanks differed to British because they been differently deployed. Apples and Oranges.

I dont even bother to reply on the claim the British where trying to fight WW1. Ridiculous stuff.