Yet another "what if": Japan

[Simoleum]

Hello! What if there was no war in Europe (by Germany). Germany didnt attack or expand militarily after say the Munich Agreement. The only war in the world was Japan-China. What would happen? Would any countries get involved? Would their expansionism force an intervention by some countries eventually? Would the Second World War be started by a Soviet invasion of somewhere? Then you could get a scenario where a German invasion of Soviet would result in Germany becoming co-belligerent with UK and France.

Discuss.

 

[PlacidDragon]

Well, in in-game terms, i cannot really say, it would depend on how they program the political AI.

Historically speaking, if Germany kept the peace i expect at some point the Soviet Union to want to bring glorious communism to the west. While i am sure that they'd let Stalin get away with quite a bit, at some point (pretty much just like Hitler), he'd cross the line of what was acceptable. This could theoretically, as you said, have the bizarre outcome of allying the western European nations, with the UK, France and Germany as the major participants (Italy as well, but i dont really see them as a major).

I would think anyway

 

[agentgb]

I think the Russians would have funded communist china & supported mongolian independance, perhaps even try to grab a part of manchuria, not sure if they would lock horns with the japs right away, i'd think they would treat it as being same circumstances as russia* invading poland, and that there interest needed to be maintained, although there morale may be affected from the winter war. The Brits would have supported nationalist china, but the efforts would have been minimal to start with, there was anti communist sentiment in the west to some extent, perhaps an early development of a build up to east versus west. But i believe the japs would have been kept in check had they grown to bold, the focus would have been mainly on the ussr i think.

 

[LordOfWar16]

The soviet union would probably have used that oppertunity to "protect" communist china, while the US would have choked japan by embargoing them, as they historically did. That would probably have caused them to declare war on the USA. The soviet union could probably use that distraction to execute their plans to bring communism to europe and "liberate" the russian people stuck on now foreign ground. War was comming, it was just an matter of who shoots first. The soviet union would have happiely tried to spread communism in europe. Stalin wanted to attack poland and historically did so only days after germany invaded them. The only reason why they stopped in Finland was, because it was getting very painfull for the soviets in the finish winterwar. Romanian territory was annexed aswell. I highly doubt that they would have stopped there. The UK and France disliked the soviets probably even more than nazi germany, but they were their only viable ally ,historically speaking, that could open up an second front. If Stalin went on an rampage while germany is satisfied with austria and the sudentenland and maybe even negotiate the corridor that would allow germany to build an railroad to ost preußen to connect them with the rest of germany i dont really see why their focus would still be germany. Overall, the only person that really wanted to see germany dead when hitler rose to power was Churchill. Everyone else wanted to preserve peace at all cost.

In the end we might even would have seen an western european alliance against the soviet union, as hitler actually wanted with the anti-comintern pact. Stalin always was afraid that the western powers in europe could ally against him. He was an paranoid dictator overall. The molotov-ribbentrop pact´s purpose was to give the soviets time to prepare and to prevent said alliance.

That are alot of maybe's and probably's since nobody can really tell what would have happened, only predict. Humans arent rational and predictable.

 

[Damiani]

Japan was trying to seek a peace negotiation in collaboration with the US by early 41. That's why they signed the Tripartite Pact because they wanted to negotiate from a "position of power". I doubt the USSR would get involved since Stalin had made it clear that he will not go to war over communist interests.

Also Chiang Kai-Shek may have been more willing to negotiate with Wang Jingwei/Japan if it was clear that no foreign help would come (since there was no European War).

 

[mursolini]

Soveit "plans" to bring communism to Europe were more of an ideaological hoax, to get communists everywhere to do small things for SU and for local population to justify low life standard and lots of work.

IF you look at the reality on the ground, by 1938, the wast majority of Russian Revolution leaders were declared enemies of the poeple and repressed. Much of "revolutionary" changes were rolled back, and overall, SU ceased to really be "communist", just keeping the flag and rethoric, much like todays China is "communist" in nothing but name.

SU was trading a lot with west, and there really was no need for SU to rush into war, it had all the resources needed, and was building up it`s industry, military and diplomacy.

Also, it was wholy unrealistic for SU to win a war against most of Europe, and they were aware of that, hence they chose to cooperate with Hitler, for a time. IF Axis and Allies didn`t go to war, there was nothing SU could really do, and hope to win. Most of what SU would do, would be fighting proxies trying to create friendly regimes like Spanish civil war, Vietnam war, Korean war, ex.

 

[Sharp163]

Hello! What if there was no war in Europe (by Germany). Germany didnt attack or expand militarily after say the Munich Agreement. The only war in the world was Japan-China. What would happen? Would any countries get involved? Would their expansionism force an intervention by some countries eventually? Would the Second World War be started by a Soviet invasion of somewhere? Then you could get a scenario where a German invasion of Soviet would result in Germany becoming co-belligerent with UK and France.

Discuss.

I think you need a little more detail on your backstory before I can offer a detailed alternate history, or make speculations... Why was there no war in Europe? Was Hitler killed earlier on (Perhaps in the Great War, or in the Beer Hall Putsch)? Did the entente still win WW1? Was the US still isolationist? Did the soviet invasion of Poland still fail?

Basically, with what you're suggesting (just based on the details you provided), it sounds like the League of Nations would try to intervene and mandate a peace, which Japan would ignore, since it's a hollow threat.

 

[Voigt]

@Sharp163

Germany didnt attack or expand militarily after say the Munich Agreement.

In his second sentance, so everything until this point is normal history, and Hitler still seems to be in power.

Personally I don't think the Allies would hesitate much to ally with Germany if SU would threaten war. Yeah they dislike Germany because auf WW1, they don't think Hitler is a greater leader, but if apeasment really worked, they won't feal as threated of Germany and realpolitic would win.

The red scare was real this time, brown fear not so much.

 

[Sharp163]

@Sharp163


In his second post, so everything until this point is normal history, and Hitler still seems to be in power.

Personally I don't think the Allies would hesitate much to ally with Germany if SU would threaten war. Yeah they dislike Germany because auf WW1, they don't think Hitler is a greater leader, but if apeasment really worked, they won't feal as threated of Germany and realpolitic would win.

The red scare was real this time, brown fear not so much.

So Poland caved and gave up Danzig and the Corridor?

Even if this is true, I find it hard to believe that Hitler would stop there...

But even so, if Japan invaded China and war broke out between the east and west, it would basically be World War Two but easier on the German part. No Britain being a thorn in their side, and no allies storming Normandy and Italy, creating more fronts to cover. The invasion of Russia would have much more manpower.

In a war with the USSR, the Red Scare would certainly be exacerbated, in the US and Europe...

Hope this helped

 

[hanislost]

Japan is a island country, same as England and USA. They all seek world domination. England has colonizations. USA has great developed economics. Japan has the Mikado.

 

[Earl Uhtred]

IIRC the US oil embargo came into force after the Japanese occupation of Indochina, which obviously isn't going to happen short of war with France if France is still going. It's hard to see Japan kicking off with the Dutch, either, unless there's a general war in Europe.

Faced with colonial regimes untroubled by German occupation of the home country, and a UK not involved in Europe and North Africa, I expect the Japanese would have been more cautious overall. War with the US wasn't inevitable in 1939 imo and the Japanese weren't stupid. They just took a calculated risk too far, went up a blind alley, and lost everything.

The million dollar question is was Stalin preparing for an offensive war in Europe and when. Having read reams on this subject I still don't know.

Assuming a Soviet attack in the West in '41 or '42, we can imagine Germany getting that free hand in the East and some extra meat on the bones of the Anti-Bolshevik Crusade. It's hard to imagine the UK / France pitching in to help, though. I find it easier to imagine them using the opportunity to backstab Germany if Germany did either too well, or too poorly, in this conflict with the USSR.

Another possibility - maybe a stronger one - is that the USSR begins a war with Japan some time between 1939 and 1942. I believe this would probably result in an ass-handing for Japan, but who knows how the rest of the world would react.

 

[Porkman]

The soviet union would probably have used that oppertunity to "protect" communist china, while the US would have choked japan by embargoing them, as they historically did. That would probably have caused them to declare war on the USA. The soviet union could probably use that distraction to execute their plans to bring communism to europe and "liberate" the russian people stuck on now foreign ground. War was comming, it was just an matter of who shoots first. The soviet union would have happiely tried to spread communism in europe. Stalin wanted to attack poland and historically did so only days after germany invaded them. The only reason why they stopped in Finland was, because it was getting very painfull for the soviets in the finish winterwar. Romanian territory was annexed aswell. I highly doubt that they would have stopped there. The UK and France disliked the soviets probably even more than nazi germany, but they were their only viable ally ,historically speaking, that could open up an second front. If Stalin went on an rampage while germany is satisfied with austria and the sudentenland and maybe even negotiate the corridor that would allow germany to build an railroad to ost preußen to connect them with the rest of germany i dont really see why their focus would still be germany. Overall, the only person that really wanted to see germany dead when hitler rose to power was Churchill. Everyone else wanted to preserve peace at all cost.

In the end we might even would have seen an western european alliance against the soviet union, as hitler actually wanted with the anti-comintern pact. Stalin always was afraid that the western powers in europe could ally against him. He was an paranoid dictator overall. The molotov-ribbentrop pact´s purpose was to give the soviets time to prepare and to prevent said alliance.

That are alot of maybe's and probably's since nobody can really tell what would have happened, only predict. Humans arent rational and predictable.

The Soviets would not have protected communist China. Communist China didn't even exist in 1941. It was the Shen Kang Ning Border Area in 1941 and was subsidized by the KMT government until 1940.

The Soviets had very little faith in the Chinese communists in the 40's and generally counseled them to take the path of least resistance.

The most help they ever gave was after the war was over and, even then, all the Soviets did was allow communists access to captured Japanese stockpiles and allowed Chinese exile groups in Soviet territory to cross back into China. The Soviets actually told the Chinese communists to form a coalition government with the KMT now that they could negotiate from a position of strength.

Essentially, no one thought the Chinese communists could win besides the CCP itself. The Soviets liked the Chinese communists but they saw them as unready to govern and unlikely to win a direct fight so the Soviets always urged caution. They aren't going to attack Japan to protect them.

 

[Simoleum]

So Poland caved and gave up Danzig and the Corridor?

Either say that, or no more expansionism after Munich. There could be several reasons, like you said Hitler dieing, or the miracle that he thought rationally, and decided victory in a Great War would be impossible. Poland would be a buffer against the Soviets, if you believe that the Nazis feared a Soviet invasion, and that Barbarossa was "pre-emptive". This will be a reason for fewer wars in Europe too. Haven't specified any causes, but just curious of the result

 

[Caesar15]

Essentially, no one thought the Chinese communists could win besides the CCP itself. The Soviets liked the Chinese communists but they saw them as unready to govern and unlikely to win a direct fight so the Soviets always urged caution. They aren't going to attack Japan to protect them.

And now we can see that China lived the Soviet's, how ironic.

 

[BBBD316]

Well lets say that after Munich Hitler just goes back to trying to run the country instead of running it into the ground. Heck if he had got what the world thought he wanted, perhaps Germany even rejoins the League of Nations.

As stated Japan continues to battle China, it still joins the Axis so the Soviets would be concerned that the Germans may come to their aid if they try anything. So the Soviets may decide to go after Central Asia. Japan would probably try to ask the Germans and Italians to seek a settlement in China with the help of the US and UK.

I think a new world war is likely to start sometime in the mid 1940's, probably the Soviets pushing into Romania or some damn stupid thing in the Balkans.

 

[aitaituo]

I think war with Japan and the US was inevitable. Roosevelt was clearly opposed to Japanese expansion and, frankly, was a pretty stubborn guy. The Flying Tigers were started before the Japanese invasion of Indochina and there had been some financial support to the KMT. Even if Japan hadn't joined the Axis, it's hard to imagine Roosevelt not escalating support to China to the point where Japan would feel justified in the Pearl Harbor plan.

The British were much the same and with the Nazis out of the picture militarily, it would have been much easier to justify escalation of their anti-Japanese policies.

Both the French and British seriously considered going to war with the Soviets over Finland, so Hitler sticking to the Munich Agreement makes that a real possibility. I don't really see them directly cooperating with the Nazi's militarily, though, because in the event of a Soviet invasion of Poland Hitler would never have balked at the opportunity to "protect" Poland, even if there was no Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. I would expect their cooperation to be something like the Soviet-Allied cooperation IRL.

The Soviets would not have protected communist China. Communist China didn't even exist in 1941. It was the Shen Kang Ning Border Area in 1941 and was subsidized by the KMT government until 1940.

The Soviets had very little faith in the Chinese communists in the 40's and generally counseled them to take the path of least resistance.

The most help they ever gave was after the war was over and, even then, all the Soviets did was allow communists access to captured Japanese stockpiles and allowed Chinese exile groups in Soviet territory to cross back into China. The Soviets actually told the Chinese communists to form a coalition government with the KMT now that they could negotiate from a position of strength.

Essentially, no one thought the Chinese communists could win besides the CCP itself. The Soviets liked the Chinese communists but they saw them as unready to govern and unlikely to win a direct fight so the Soviets always urged caution. They aren't going to attack Japan to protect them.

Mao largely saw Stalin as a traitor, because he was indeed indirectly responsible for the KMT's purge that allowed Mao to become the top leader in the CCP. As you said, Soviet support for the CPC was tepid thereafter. Stalin's territorial ambitions were entirely in Europe, too.

 

[SchwarzKatze]

I think war with Japan and the US was inevitable. Roosevelt was clearly opposed to Japanese expansion and, frankly, was a pretty stubborn guy. The Flying Tigers were started before the Japanese invasion of Indochina and there had been some financial support to the KMT. Even if Japan hadn't joined the Axis, it's hard to imagine Roosevelt not escalating support to China to the point where Japan would feel justified in the Pearl Harbor plan.

The British were much the same and with the Nazis out of the picture militarily, it would have been much easier to justify escalation of their anti-Japanese policies.

And if Germany wanted a source of cheap labor and resources for development instead of a cobelligerent, they would not have chosen Japan over China and probably meant continued German advisor presence, which would make the war harder for Japan.

Mao largely saw Stalin as a traitor, because he was indeed indirectly responsible for the KMT's purge that allowed Mao to become the top leader in the CCP. As you said, Soviet support for the CPC was tepid thereafter. Stalin's territorial ambitions were entirely in Europe, too.

You sure about that? I'm positive that it's due to the previous leader of CPC/CCP, Chen Duxiu, being a Trotskyite. And Mao probably admired Stalin or at least liked his kind of Communism that kept the frictions between PRC and USSR under the lid until the latter's death which almost immedately led to the Sino-Soviet Split.

 

[aitaituo]

Hmm, maybe I'm misremembering who was responsible/blamed for the purge, but Mao was definitely not a fan of Stalin and saw him as a tool to get more supplies at best. A lot of Mao's early writings were attempts to Sinicize western communist thought in distinctly anti-Soviet ways.

Probably the most famous incident in the Mao-Stalin relationship was when Stalin encouraged Kim Il-Sung to start the Korean War without telling Mao, who was in the middle of preparing an invasion of Taiwan that became totally unfeasible after the US/UN intervention in Korea.

 

[Porkman]

Hmm, maybe I'm misremembering who was responsible/blamed for the purge, but Mao was definitely not a fan of Stalin and saw him as a tool to get more supplies at best. A lot of Mao's early writings were attempts to Sinicize western communist thought in distinctly anti-Soviet ways.

Probably the most famous incident in the Mao-Stalin relationship was when Stalin encouraged Kim Il-Sung to start the Korean War without telling Mao, who was in the middle of preparing an invasion of Taiwan that became totally unfeasible after the US/UN intervention in Korea.

Not true. Mao signed off on Korea. The PVA was 400,000 troops and they were ready by October for a successful winter campaign. This wasn't a case of Mao being caught unprepared. The loss of Taiwan was not foreseen but Mao definitely approved of the North Korean invasion. His beef with the Soviets about Korea was that they approved it and then left the heavy lifting to China.

 

[Sir Garnet]

Mao was very independent-minded and an unsuitable puppet for Stalin, and a war with Japan would be weakening relative to the west.