WW1: Could the Germans have raced to Serbia, won, and gone home?

[keynes2.0]

Germany sitting back and defending means German industry gets occupied not France. Germany could not substitute with imports.

Germany also is not going to win a war by waiting for the blockade to starve them.

France was prepared to do this, and more importantly, Joffre was actively considering it. Due to the way things worked, the glorious Marshal Joffre effectively had the power to run a state within a state within what was termed as the area of battle. This meant that he could do as he liked within this area, including actually preventing members of the civilian government from entering.

Are you suggesting he would do it and try to hide it? France had a free press and acces to Belgian news.

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

(the offensive was mathematically impossible)

Yes ?

 

[Culise]

Are you suggesting he would do it and try to hide it? France had a free press and acces to Belgian news.

I think he's suggesting that Joffre would do it and present the government with a fait accompli where either they endorse Joffre's actions or provoke a crisis in the chain of command by attempting to dismiss him for cause. Given that the government is being effectively run by President Poincaré (Prime Minister René Viviani being apparently a bit of a non-entity) and given the influence of Clemenceau even in 1914-1915 (he of the saying, "war is too important to be left to the military"), if Joffre were foolish enough to try something like that, I suspect he would have been smacked down hard and fast. I don't believe he would have, though; had he been of a mind to so blatantly reject the rule of the civilian government, I feel like he would have ignored Secretary of War Messimy and done it in August 1914 instead of moving into Alsace-Lorraine.

EDIT:
It's also probably worth noting that, given the rate at which the front typically moved in the West after the opening thrust, it's going to be obvious to the civilian government well in advance that Joffre's aiming for Belgium if he is this foolhardy. They aren't going to be stuck in a situation where, by the time they realize what has happened, they're already in Brussels and trying to figure out how to extricate themselves with any semblance of authority intact; the worst that will happen is that a large number of soldiers that should have been fighting Germany in Alsace-Lorraine and Champagne are instead given orders to deploy in a worthless manner that need to be overridden by whoever ends up replacing Joffre (Gallieni, maybe).

EDIT 2: Ah, trimmed a sentence I accidentally forgot to delete entirely and made some other grammatical fixes.

 

[keynes2.0]

It's sort of like something from bad science fiction that is forgotten an episode later because the writers have no freaking clue how to describe the realistic ramifications of that happening.

 

[BBBD316]

Just on the declarations of war, was not mobilisation considered basically a pre-emptive DOW? Serbia mobilises first.

@kenyes2.0 would the German industry be occupied? Before they got through Belgium the Germans were slowly retreating but causing greivous losses on the French for low losses, could the Germans have held the line till the new troops were raised to simply stall any French advance?

 

[keynes2.0]

the Germans were slowly retreating but causing greivous losses on the French for low losses

What are you referring to here?

 

[BBBD316]

When the war was declared the French went on the offensive and the German armies not moving through Belgium did quite well in holding the French at bay. Had all the armies in the West been just at the border I doubt whether the French would have got too far.

 

[Director]

As I see it, the question comes down to three things - Austrian determination to eradicate Serbia, Russian mobilization and Germany's invasion of Belgium.

Austria deliberately made their ultimatum contain at least one clause the Serbians could not accept. Serbia did in fact accept all the other Austrian demands, and diplomats in Europe thought that would satisfy Austria. The problem was that Austria wanted Serbia eliminated and refused to accept anything but total submission. They pushed ahead because Germany had assured them of German backing - the infamous blank check. A call for a Council of Europe-type meeting might have led to a diplomatic solution but Austria and to a degree Germany wanted war and not diplomacy. Neither really thought anyone would stand up for Serbia or that Britain would join France and Russia. Had Austria not been so completely and obviously set on destroying Serbia, then the crisis would not have led to war.

Russia was not happy to see Serbia humbled but they certainly were not going to permit Serbia to be taken over by Austria. So Russia began to mobilize... this is another point where active diplomatic measures might have resolved the crisis short of war. But when Russia began a (I think) partial mobilization and the Czar refused Wilhelm's appeal to stand down, the German General Staff pushed for immediate mobilization - which to them meant offensive war into France. Except, of course, that it didn't - Germany had a number of war plans including one for standing on the defensive in the West. And France was busy trying to find out what Britain would do (which even the British government didn't know) and hoping to settle the crisis diplomatically. But France could not permit Germany and Austria to crush her ally Russia - and probably knew that once the Germans started moving they'd be headed west, not south or east.

Thirdly, if Germany had not invaded Belgium it is very likely that Britain would have stayed out or come in much too late to do any good. So a German defensive posture would have left France and Russia to war with Germany and Austria, and probably France and Russia would lose. A German defense on both fronts (and Britain staying neutral and trying to broker a peace) might have mitigated the effects of WW1 by 3 to 4 years. The German, Russian and Austrian empires would have survived at least for a while longer.

The principle problem with positing a German strike into Serbia is that Austria would not have asked for assistance and would have angrily refused German help if it had been offered. It was only after the disasters of 1914-15 that the Austrians saw they needed German help.

At least, that's my opinion.

 

[Cavalry]

As I see it, the question comes down to three things - Austrian determination to eradicate Serbia, Russian mobilization and Germany's invasion of Belgium..

My opinion is German wanted war with France now, before Russian Army is modernized. If Russian backed off, they will seize Serbia and have next move in a few months! Austrian is just a stupid clown doing things for Germany.

Britain will stay "neutral" as long as Germany didn't conquer Belgium or has a decisive victory against the French. They are very much like the Americans and will join the war later to have their shares!

 

[Henry IX]

If the Germans invade Serbia they just take massive casualties from attrition, same as the Austrians because they would have had to rely on Austria's appalling commissariat. The only thing introducing extra men into Serbia would have done (unless you can change the Austrian supply system) is resulted in an even faster collapse from lack of supplies. The Austrian army appeared to have a supply system that consisted of telling their soldier to "suck it up, princess".

If the Germans had wanted a greater force to attack into Serbia it would have been far easier to have increased the length of front the Germans were responsible for against Russia and diverted the Austrian soldiers thus freed up to attacking Serbia. This would have resulted in a further weakening of the assault into France, so is highly unlikely to have been accepted by the German staff.

 

[DeclaredYuppie]

If the Germans invade Serbia they just take massive casualties from attrition, same as the Austrians because they would have had to rely on Austria's appalling commissariat. The only thing introducing extra men into Serbia would have done (unless you can change the Austrian supply system) is resulted in an even faster collapse from lack of supplies. The Austrian army appeared to have a supply system that consisted of telling their soldier to "suck it up, princess".

If the Germans had wanted a greater force to attack into Serbia it would have been far easier to have increased the length of front the Germans were responsible for against Russia and diverted the Austrian soldiers thus freed up to attacking Serbia. This would have resulted in a further weakening of the assault into France, so is highly unlikely to have been accepted by the German staff.

Why would they have not been able to rely on their own supply system?

 

[Henry IX]

Because they are transporting everything on Austrian rails and roads. You cannot run a duel supply system efficiently through the same space.

 

[DoomBunny]

- The Austrians were both incompetent and unable to focus on Serbia due to how the Russian threat materialised.

To expand on this, Austria-Hungary had two mobilisation plans. The first dealt with Serbia, the second with Serbia and Russia. The difference was that both committed substantial forces to the Russian and Serbian borders, but kept a balance in reserve. In the first case, it was to be committed against Serbia, in the second it was needed against Russia.

In the event this balance of forces got sent to Serbia and then back to the Russian front, leaving it out of place.

Are you suggesting he would do it and try to hide it? France had a free press and acces to Belgian news.

No, I mean that if Joffre wanted to then Joffre could effectively start the ball rolling and then drag everyone along with him.

Not that this would neessarily have been necessary, as the idea had been going round for some time. The more likely is political lobbying followed by such an action.

done it in August 1914 instead of moving into Alsace-Lorraine.

The measure in Joffre's mind was intended for when the direct offensive failed. Partly this rested on the offensive spirit in the French army. Where the Germans saw a strong defensive front and thought "We'll go through Belgium" the French response was "Welp, better attack it!"

 

[Zaleukos]

Yes ?

The infrastructure on the Franco-Belgian side of the border was insufficient to move the forces involved in the offensive. There simply wasn't enough roads and railroads.

 

[Zaleukos]

Germany sitting back and defending means German industry gets occupied not France. Germany could not substitute with imports.

Germany also is not going to win a war by waiting for the blockade to starve them.

This was probably part of the German analysis prior to the war, but would the French have gotten that far? Their performance in AL doesn't indicate that they would get as far as the Germans did with their offensive.

Knocking out Russia faster (which of course isn't a given, Russia was remarkably resilient in spite of it's huge problems) could potentially have given access to Russian and Ukrainian agricultural output within a year or two after the eastern front had been decided.

 

[DoomBunny]

The infrastructure on the Franco-Belgian side of the border was insufficient to move the forces involved in the offensive. There simply wasn't enough roads and railroads.

To expand on this, the Schlieffen Plan:

- Required more troops than Germany had available, and ideally required the left wing to be reinforced by Italian forces, the Italian government was unreliable
- Underestimated the level of resistance the Belgians were capable of
- Made little allowance for the effects of sabotage on the German armies logistical capability
- Required the French to pursue their Alsace-Lorraine offensive with single-minded determination
- Required a rate of march of around 20+ km a day, by a footbound army, for 40 days, whilst fighting battles

Even allowing for military deadlines being an ideal, it wasn't a particularly robust plan.

 

[timasaurus007]

To expand on this, the Schlieffen Plan:

Even allowing for military deadlines being an ideal, it wasn't a particularly robust plan.

Well the Schlieffen Plan as it was executed in the Great War was quite a success, if it wasn't for the Miracle of the Marne, it is possible that the French would lost Paris in 1914 and due to this surrendered.

Also, as one other forum poster stated, the whole idea of German expedition into the Serbian theatre in 1914 is rather doubtful as I don't see Austria-Hungary, bent on revenge, letting the Germans do all the work. The Austria-Hungary of 1914 is not the Austria-Hungary of 1916.

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

The infrastructure on the Franco-Belgian side of the border was insufficient to move the forces involved in the offensive. There simply wasn't enough roads and railroads.

Ah I see. Well thats why the original plan required an invasion of the Netherlands too to aquire the critical railroad through Maastricht.

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

Well the Schlieffen Plan as it was executed in the Great War was quite a success, if it wasn't for the Miracle of the Marne, it is possible that the French would lost Paris in 1914 and due to this surrendered.

Yes it was a miracle that the German troops came as far as they did.

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

Even allowing for military deadlines being an ideal, it wasn't a particularly robust plan.

Funny enough it wasnt the plan that Schliefen had in mind. The plan was designed for a war between Germany and France. Schliefens plan for a war with France and Russia was a completly other one.