WW1: Could the Germans have raced to Serbia, won, and gone home?

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DeclaredYuppie

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Who is "they"? High command? Samsonov? Rennenkampf?
Russians were not all retarded. Even the two unlucky generals were aware that they had aerial recon element in their armies, would have liked to use it, but couldn't as there had been no time to set up airfields and actually get the planes off the rail cars before the offensive was slated to begin. Had they had time to set up really only the recon aircraft, it's unlikely they would have been caught as unaware by the German maneuvering as they were.

They also were not able to use recon cavalry either apparently? Or encode their signals/communications appropriately? Besides I'm not suggesting they're retarded. I'm suggesting they were as likely to get thousands and thousands of men killed in poorly thought out offensives because that was what leaders in all the armies in the first few weeks of WW1 seemed dedicated to doing.

But I want to get back to the timing of all this. When is Russia's multi-million man army ready to go in this version of events? And why does it take them less time to mobilize and organize that force and really get it going in a proper, not rushed offensive against Germany, than it does for Germany to march a few hundred thousand men through friendly Austria-Hungary and in to the north of Serbia? Also, how many Germans are the Russians facing once they get their army in place? Can we agree it's more than the skeleton force they'd left behind so they could pushthrough Belgium?
 

BBBD316

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Well I would think at the bare minimum the Germans would want to keep 5 armies on the French Front, however in the early days of the war these 5 held up quite well and caused considerable damage to the French when they attacked.

So you at most free up 2 armies and one of those is off to Serbia. In fact I would allow that army to take on Serbia alone and have the Austrians move the bulk of their forces to meet the Russians.

The Brits would have had a hard time pushing a vote for war through if the Germans actively try not to provoke them, however that also assume the German High Command aren't hawkish idiots.
 

Zaleukos

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This thread is based on the flawed assumption that Germany's war aim was to punish Serbia. It was not, the German goal was to take down Russia before Russia had grown strong enough. The German elite was paranoid about Russia.

The Austrians would OTOH have been quite happy with the war only dealing with Serbia.
 
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BBBD316

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The war was meant to be more than it was I agree, both sides were ready for this to kick off.

My view is more of a tactical decision, Germany realises that France and Russia can not act fast enough to save Serbia and if they knock them out early then their position is much stronger and their ally is better able to assist.

Mind you I don't think the Germans expected the Austrians to perform quite so badly.

However if Serb is done and the Austrians even do slightly better than historical then perhaps Romania stays neutral or even joins the CP which again just helps out and means less German troops are needed elsewhere.
 

DeclaredYuppie

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that also assume the German High Command aren't hawkish idiots.

I wanted to particularly try and bracket that discussion out because the motivations (and in particular whether people were acting due to particular grand-world views brewing over the prior 20 years or were reacting due to uncertainty of how the chips would fall during August) seem even more inscrutible than the realities of projecting how a totally different August/September/October 1914 plays out in terms of military battles.

Basically- I can't at all make the case that were I (or better yet someone who spoke German!) to go back in time that I'd be able to convince anyone in Germany of this plan, without breaking all those pesky time-traveler rules you know we have.
 

BBBD316

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That is what I assumed, that I am the Kaiser and I am making the final decisions with the High Command and have the power and stature to push through changes in the battle plan.
 

DoomBunny

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For this to be the case, Russia folds over the initial Austro-Hungarian ultimatum. Something which by itself cancels the scenario.

This also assumes that Germany's reasons for war were Serbia-oriented rather than focused on France and Russia, that Moltke decides against the normal plan and somehow comes up with a new one in under a month, that said plan is rational (highly unlikely seeing as it took 9 years to put the cherry on that pile of garbage known as the Schlieffen Plan), and also assumes that the Germans realise that Austria-Hungary cannot take Serbia alone, something which was fairly unpredictable (and reliant on that special level of incompetence that only the Austro-Hungarians and Italians could regularly display).

That is what I assumed, that I am the Kaiser and I am making the final decisions with the High Command and have the power and stature to push through changes in the battle plan.

If you are the Kaiser, I can tell you that firstly, you're Kaiser Wilhelm II and not a man famous for intellect. Secondly, good luck dealing with the German staff system, your power is not as strong as you think.
 

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It seems weird that the Germans only had one mobilization plan and it involved invading France regardless of what the war was. But I guess if everyone says so.

The story of the Schlieffen Plan is something like this (and I say something like this because there has been eons of semi-pointless debate over this in academic circles).

In the beginning, there was Germany. And Germany looked at itself and saw that it was good. And Germany celebrated this by eating some sausage and shooting a few Namibians who probably didn't deserve it but hey ho they didn't have silly spikes on their hats so they were probably evil or something. Then Germany looked outwards, and saw its neighbours, and saw that they were not good, because they were not Germany. And Germany grew cross and grumpy.

Initially, German war planning in the pre-1914 period envisaged a few different plans, dealing with subjects like an attack on Russia or France in the case of one or both being engaged. There was some flexibility in this.

However, there were also issues. It became increasingly clear that war could not remain limited, as for one power to abandon another to its fate would surely tip the balance of power irrevocably against said power as well as creating diplomatic difficulties. Thus the likelihood of a war with just one, France or Russia, decreased dramatically. From there, two problems arise that lead to fixation on a France first plan.

The first, and this needs to be pointed out, is that drawing up mobilisation plans is a VERY complex, time consuming, and costly business. This isn't something that can be done on a whim. It takes months to do this just for your own army, factor in the need to cooperate with your allies (for example, travel arrangements for Italian forces being sent to the Rhine were discussed over a period of years with agreements varying greatly), and you're looking at a very lengthy process. Moreover, you have the problem that if you have multiple plans, you have scope for confusion at a time when every second counts. Better to have one plan and settle on it from this perspective.

Secondly, from the German perspective, France was the only way to strike. There are a few basic calculations in play here. Firstly, Germany needs a quick and decisive victory. This is partly because otherwise she may be overwhelmed by superior resources, and partly due to the almost single-minded fixation German thinking placed on winning a Cannae style victory (war had become an art in a literal sense, winning a stunning perfect victory being like presenting the Mona Lisa of battles). With this need in mind, we can rule out Russia as an offensive option, because there is no hope of a decisive victory against a power who can so readily trade space and manpower for time. The result would be a French attack in the Rhineland whilst Germany was struggling in the East. In contrast, the Russians will be slower to mobilise than the French (contrary to popular belief this assumption was correct, the Russians however got around the mobilisation problems by attacking with standing forces) and thus Germany might defeat France in time to rush East and defeat the Russians. Additionally, the violation of Belgian neutrality is not seen as an issue, Britain is thought unlikely to intervene and insignificant in a short war, and the Austro-Hungarians should be able to handle some of the Russian forces as well as the Serbians thus buying Germany time.

Of course, this all turned out to be nonsense. The German vision of a modern Cannae was undermined by various factors the most major of which was an operational overview which placed unrealistic demands on the troops involved. But judged on the basis of achieving a decisive victory, it was still the best option.
 
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Aethis

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This thread is based on the flawed assumption that Germany's war aim was to punish Serbia. It was not, the German goal was to take down Russia before Russia had grown strong enough. The German elite was paranoid about Russia.

The Austrians would OTOH have been quite happy with the war only dealing with Serbia.

So why didn't the Germans fortify the border with France, ignore Belgium and focus more troops in the East?

They could take out Serbia and anyone else who joins (Greece and Romania) whilst then being able to commit even more troops to knocking out Russia.
 

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So why didn't the Germans fortify the border with France, ignore Belgium and focus more troops in the East?

A few issues here.

Firstly, the Germans did heavily fortify their French border. There were major works around Metz-Thionville, Strasburg, and along the Upper Rhine. These works were partly intended to anchor the German flank and allow it to hold with minimal resources.

Secondly, ignoring Belgium isn't such a straight question because the French were considering violating Belgian neutrality themselves in the event of a failure to breakthrough in the Alsace-Lorraine.

They could take out Serbia and anyone else who joins (Greece and Romania) whilst then being able to commit even more troops to knocking out Russia.

There was no guarantee that Serbia would be in a war, whilst there was a guarantee that Russia would be. Add to this that Austria-Hungary should have been able to handle Serbia, that Greece and Romania were neutral, and that nothing decisive would be achieved in Russia and you have a problem.

Certainly more might have been achieved longterm (this was not really considered as contemporary appraisals held that overwhelming firepower would make a long war impossible due to nations being unable to sustain losses), but as a short term measure the need for a quick and decisive victory made France the clear favourite.
 

keynes2.0

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Besides I'm not suggesting they're retarded. I'm suggesting they were as likely to get thousands and thousands of men killed in poorly thought out offensives because that was what leaders in all the armies in the first few weeks of WW1 seemed dedicated to doing.

Russia launched the Galacia offensive and won. The Galacia offensive was a bigger offensive then the Prussia offensive...

It sounds rather unlikely that Germany skipping the two things most directly annoying to Britain (attack Belgium and France) would do nothing. Especially when we know that historically there was some uncertainty about going to war, in Britain.

It's like the Japanese attacking the US. Yes the attack dragged the US into the war. But the reason the Japanese were willing to drag the US into the war is that they knew a war was coming soon anyway.
 
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Aethis

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Wouldn't France violating Belgian neutrality prevent the UK from joining them against Germany and possibly even causing them to declare war on France?
 
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Aethis

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Cavalry

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While from a military perspective defeating Serbia would not mean much in comparison to the potential fights against the Entente powers, would this have changed the political/diplomatic calculus enough to stop or change the decisions to go to war against Germany- of England, France or Russia? .

No no start from basic history lesson first. Germany and Austria declare war to Russian first, and Germany declared war to France first! Germany didn't wait to see if he can avoid war with any of these!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_World_War_I
 

Cavalry

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This thread is based on the flawed assumption that Germany's war aim was to punish Serbia. It was not, the German goal was to take down Russia before Russia had grown strong enough. The German elite was paranoid about Russia.

The Austrians would OTOH have been quite happy with the war only dealing with Serbia.

I think Germany wanted to destroy France, Russia is just happen to be a France ally!
France always want to revenge, they taught pupils on the revenge! Germany cannot do anything else if France is not cleared yet!
 

DoomBunny

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Wouldn't France violating Belgian neutrality prevent the UK from joining them against Germany and possibly even causing them to declare war on France?

If Britain wasn't in the war at that point, it would certainly lend strength to the anti-war lobby. Then again, it's not a certain either way. There was a strong argument for Britain entering the war even without Belgium, and Kaiser Bill and friends were not famed for their diplomatic tact. A few submarine sinkings or some German attempts to use naval power in the North Sea/Channel and Britain may get off the fence.

You are assuming that the political leadership of France would order an invasion of Belgium.

France was prepared to do this, and more importantly, Joffre was actively considering it. Due to the way things worked, the glorious Marshal Joffre effectively had the power to run a state within a state within what was termed as the area of battle. This meant that he could do as he liked within this area, including actually preventing members of the civilian government from entering.

I think Germany wanted to destroy France, Russia is just a France ally!

A mix of the two. France needed to be destroyed largely because her 3 year conscription laws would give her an edge over Germany, but the main fear was Russia. It was pretty clear in 1914 that Russia, whilst a fragile and antiquated giant as of current, was moving forward. According to some estimates by 1918 she would have become undefeatable if the current rate of improvement continued.
 

Fornadan

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Say the mobilization clock starts for Germany. They think it will take France several days to mobilize offensively, while Russia will take weeks. They're wrong on Russia- but as we learn later the forces they do mobilize quickly are something Germany can handle pretty well. But in that window of the first week or two- could the Germans have opted to use perhaps a percentage of what they IRL dedicated to the Schlieffen Plan to march through Serbia? And in that week declare "Ok, we're done. Serbia is pacified. Vienna is going to hold some trials and hang some people, but we're done here."

Mobilization means war.

Even if we completely hand wave the Serbian front (let's say they are conquered by Austrian supermen in less than a month) and assume Germany alters their mobilization plans so their troops don't actually have their assembly points inside other countries, you're still stuck with massive armies staring at each other across the borders full of officers eager for action
 

Zaleukos

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So why didn't the Germans fortify the border with France, ignore Belgium and focus more troops in the East?

They could take out Serbia and anyone else who joins (Greece and Romania) whilst then being able to commit even more troops to knocking out Russia.

Underestimation of Russian readiness.

The German plan was to knock out France quickly in order to , and then focus on Russia. Serbia was irrelevant (and definitely not a threat to Germany, and in the short term not even a military threat to Austria) and should be handled by AH. AH simultaneously expected Germany to hold off Russia. Some reasons it didnt play out the way intended:

- Coordination between the central powers was a mess, and they werent even aware of each others priorities.
- Neither expected Russia to be able to go on the offensive as soon as it did, and both expected the other to hold off limited Russian forces.
- The Germans overestimated their ability to deliver a decisive blow in France (the offensive was mathematically impossible), and underestimated the power of the defensive on a narrow front.
- The Austrians were both incompetent and unable to focus on Serbia due to how the Russian threat materialised.

Greece and Romania were non-factors and mostly joined the war due to opportunism, the war wouldn't be decided by fighting them.

But in hindsight it would have made sense to stay on manpower-efficient defensive in the west from the start (and this is also where Germany ended up from Marne to Verdun).