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Falc

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Falc :
Day 1 - Throwaway
Day 2 - Not much to go on
Day 3 - Throwaway
Day 4 - No vote
Day 5 - Not much to go on


And a lot of silence...

a) I haven't been feeling like I have much energy these past few days.

b) I've been running the Resistance game

Now that it's weekend, I'm hoping to recuperate and get back on my feet.


Also, with regards to your analysis, you seem to imply Telesien and Adamus working together.

Since there's likely only one original yellow left, that leaves two options: one of those is the Sorcerer, or yellow hit a Curse on night 3.

Either way, they did NOT START knowing one another, so you need to take that on board in your analysis.
 

Cliges

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I'm going to go ahead and vote now if only because I don't know that I can post again before time's up.


vote adamus

Only because it's alphabetical. Hope to change it later if I find time and something better presents itself.

Has anyone ever completed a game with all of their final votes being nothing but baddies?
 

Slinky

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I'll just keep beating the horse until it's dead.

Vote xarkan
 

Rendap

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Ok, Marty99 will now sub for Adamus - Any votes on Adamus will still be valid.
 

gigau

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Since there's likely only one original yellow left, that leaves two options: one of those is the Sorcerer, or yellow hit a Curse on night 3.

Either way, they did NOT START knowing one another, so you need to take that on board in your analysis.

True enough, i overlooked that. I don't know why, i was counting that there were still 2 original yellow wolves.


Come to think of it... Slinky created a tie between Enkhuush and The_split on day 1, but then voted for Johho when Enkhuush was in danger. Did you try to save him ?

Then a throwaway on Falc... followed by an obsession on Xarkan.

For now :

Vote Slinky
 

reis91

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telesien

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Vote Adamus

At this point I honestly don't know why he has so little attention.
 

marty99

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I know it's only two votes so far, but at least give me a chance to get my act together before killing me. And don't say 'sorry but we have to go on the evidence' because I haven't seen any. Reading up now.
 

marty99

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I can't speak for Adamus' actions anyway, but let's examine these claims.
My lead suspects :






Adamus :
Day 1 - Throwaway, but it's just the first day
Day 2 - Throwaway on telesien
Day 3 - Joins the bandwagon on Reis
Day 4 - Jumps the bandwagon on one of the least likely Yellow
Day 5 - New throwaway on telesien




I can't speak for Adamus' actions anyway, but let's examine these claims.
Day 1 - Throwaway, but it's just the first day
Horseshit. Adamus was the first voter of the game. At that time his vote gave reis 100% of the vote, literally could not be further from a throwaway vote. It is the very antithesis of it. Whether or not reis subsequently fell out of the race is irrelevant to his actions at that point, unless you wish to put him on trial for not predicting the future.
Furthermore, you qualify your suspicion by saying 'it's just the first day', yet you throw it in anyway. You subtly cast suspicion, but distance yourself from it. A classic hallmark of wanting to implicate someone but knowing you have insufficient evidence.
Conclusion: Not evidence.


Day 2 - Throwaway on telesien
Again, blatantly disingenuous. Adamus was the second voter of the day. Putting telesien in a two-way tie at the top is not a throwaway. Again, whether or not telesien ended up in the lead is irrelevant; Adamus could have no way of knowing that.
Furthermore, this vote was given with a reason anyway. He postulated that telesien may have been trying to save someone with his vote. It was a pretty weak argument but it was the second day, and he was one of few who actually tried to find a wolf with their vote.
Conclusion: Not evidence.


Day 3 - Joins the bandwagon on Reis
As did about half of the village, and he turned out to be a wolf. Pretty insignificant. Adamus, admittedly, was idiotic to do this, and that's precisely a wolf wouldn't have done it. Reis was clearly going to die regardless - he already had 4 more votes than anyone else. Therefore he didn't have anyone to save, and he knew he would gain no credibility from lynching him. A wolf with two brain cells to rub together would never have made that vote and you know it. Adamus is known for being reckless as a villager and reasonably careful as a wolf. Look over a few of his games.
Possible reason for his vote: Johho was the one who got reis lynched. In this post he argues that the two best candidates are reis and Adamus. While in no danger at that time, hardly unreasonable to think that the village would also give him a few votes.

Conclusion: Very little significance, could add up if used in conjunction with much more evidence.

Day 4 - Jumps the bandwagon on one of the least likely Yellow
Correct. Adamus did bandwagon Cliges pretty ruthlessly. And I do agree Cliges was an unlikely wolf of either pack. However, his own life was in danger at this point, and he did provide a detailed post showing why he agreed. There have been people arguing for his death on very little grounds the whole game and I don't blame him for wanting to put as much distance between himself and the noose.
Conclusion: Minor evidence, but several reasons why Adamus would act this way as a villager.


Day 5 - New throwaway on telesien
Calling bullshit for the third time. Seriously, Adamus was the third voter of the day. He had a choice between making a 1st vote for someone, or the third vote for Cliges. Read it. For the third time, Adamus could not know telesien wouldn't be voted, he cannot predict the future: Historian's fallacy
First you say he's suspicious for voting Cliges. Then, without drawing breath, you implicate for being the first person not to vote Cliges the next day. This is a massive double-standard.
Conclusion: No evidence.

You've demonstrated a clear bias against Adamus in this post. You start with the presumption that he is a good lynch (no doubt influenced by others' equally bogus claims.), because everything reeks of desperate scrambling to find evidence (often contradictory) against him, rather than looking at the evidence first and then finding suspects based on it.
There's only one real piece of evidence in this, the bandwagon of Cliges. However, this implicates about 5 people equally, who can't all be wolves, so on it's own it is an extremely weak case.


If anyone wants to vote me, at least make a halfway coherent case. Come at me.

However, there is one thing counting against me. Whilst I haven't done anything to connect with a wolf, I haven't much to clear myself. And given the amount of people who's vote record is better, by process of elimination I'm not the worst lynch in the world.




Vote Adamus

At this point I honestly don't know why he has so little attention.
Frankly, this is a ridiculous statement. Anyone following this game will see Adamus has been accused of being a wolf every day of this game, on a smörgåsbord of astonishingly faulty logic.

And for the fifth day, voting someone for 'a lack of attention' is negligent.


EDIT: A lot of people seem to be using the word 'throwaway' to mean essentially any vote that doesn't lynch someone. And also, 'bandwagon' has broadened to mean any person with more than one freakin' vote. Thus rendering two once precise terms meaningless to anyone who wants to actually use them properly. We're better than this.
 
Last edited:

Syber

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The village is zeroing in the wolfs with almost 100% accuracy, supposedly without J-L, I'm impressed.
 

Rendap

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Registry of Votes - Brought to you 3 hours before deadline from The middle of the Ocean:

Falc 3 - Cymsdale (359), Johho (373), AVN (378)
Adamus/Marty 2 - Cliges (371), Telesien (379)
Cymsdale 1 - Cody (365)
Xarkan 1 - Slinky (372)
Cody 1 - Xarkan (375)
Slinky 1 - Gigau (376)

Non-Voters: Yes
 

Rendap

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The village is zeroing in the wolfs with almost 100% accuracy, supposedly without J-L, I'm impressed.

Am also impressed. We'll see if they can keep it up... :)
 

telesien

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Frankly, this is a ridiculous statement. Anyone following this game will see Adamus has been accused of being a wolf every day of this game, on a smörgåsbord of astonishingly faulty logic.

And for the fifth day, voting someone for 'a lack of attention' is negligent.


EDIT: A lot of people seem to be using the word 'throwaway' to mean essentially any vote that doesn't lynch someone. And also, 'bandwagon' has broadened to mean any person with more than one freakin' vote. Thus rendering two once precise terms meaningless to anyone who wants to actually use them properly. We're better than this.

Well your arguments for the first two days are just silly. He voted first/second, which made his vote meaningful by using faulty math. Neither of that explains, why he kept his votes as he did.

Anyway my reason is valid exactly because of what you write. Adamus got mentioned several times as good candidate, but in the end haven't received almost any votes. That is what makes it so strange.
 

marty99

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Well your arguments for the first two days are just silly. He voted first/second, which made his vote meaningful by using faulty math. Neither of that explains, why he kept his votes as he did.
No one has to explain why he kept his votes as he did. He had no reason to change them: no overwhelming evidence emerged. And he provided reasons anyway, which is to be commended. And my math is not faulty: it was deliberately flippant to highlight the absurdity of gigau's argument.

If he had came on with 20 minutes before the deadline, and voted for a random person, that would be a throwaway, and rightly would be regarded as suspicious. But he didn't.

And I didn't say his vote ended up meaningful: that's something you made up and won't be found in any of my posts. But this doesn't make it a throwaway, his vote was meaningful at the time but became redundant due to events he couldn't possibly have predicted.


Anyway my reason is valid exactly because of what you write. Adamus got mentioned several times as good candidate, but in the end haven't received almost any votes. That is what makes it so strange.
:rofl: A fine piece of circular logic dressed as enlightened skepticism:

Adamus is a good candidate because no one voted him despite being a good candidate.

Don't deny it, this is exactly what your post is suggesting. Prove the assertion he was a good candidate without using it as a premise.

In the end he didn't receive any votes because better suspects were eventually identified. You may have noticed a baddie has been lynched the past four days, so calling the village's policy of preferring them over Adamus 'strange' seems questionable to me.
 

Comm Cody

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Unvote Cymsdale, Vote Adamus/Marty