WW CCXLVII - DOOM OF THE WEREYAK 8: HASTINAPUR, 722 BC

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Wagonlitz

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I don't think that adds up right. Right now it's six baddies against six goodies. We lynch one baddie today, you hunt a goodie tonight (probably me), so five against five. Then say we lynch an unaligned baddie, then the other wolf hunts you and a goodie, that leaves two dead baddies and one dead goodie. So 3 against four.
Ehm, it's 10 players right now.
5 baddies, 5 goodies, though with two packs which is why there's no parity yet.

Tonight either I will die, or Sleepy's mate will die. Then, depending on if it's a cub hunt or not, thre'll be 1 or 2 hunts. Hence tomorrow there'll be either 7 or 8 players left, with 4 baddies. That's parity.

The only wya to prevent htat is for the changeling to divert my hunt tonihgt to a baddie, in whihc case it'll be 5 goodies and 3 baddies and hence we'll have lost.
For me to get a hunt Sleepy's mate needs to die.
If Sleepy's mate licves the village is dead meat as he has two cub hunts whihc can't be blocked by the changeling.






As mentioned thn I have good reason to believe tha tDeo is Sleepy's mate.
The reason I didn't hunt him is that then I'd just be voted into space. This way I force the village to lynch Deo instead if they want a chance at winning.

Vote Deo
 

CaptainGrimlock

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Good luck to you too.
 

aedan777

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Ok, village, it's important not to follow Wagon. Doing what he says is basically handing him the game. I've laid out an alternative here and he's just ignoring it because it would go badly for him. We need to lynch one of the unaligned baddies today. Sleepyhead's packmate will then use one of his hunts to kill wagon, and only one on a villager, narrowing the field to only one wolf pack, but giving goodies the numbers over the baddies again.

The other alternative is to follow him and basically hope that 1) Wagon holds to his agreement not to hunt the changeling who contacted him and win the game, and 2) that then the Changeling manages to pick exactly the right player to protect, and 3) they couldn't have protected that player before. The first point could be avoided if the actual changeling didn't contact Wagonlitz, but I have no idea what to expect in this particular game. But regardless, it's a crapshoot for the village to win if we follow Wagon, and our odds are better to lynch an unaligned baddie.

Who's the unaligned baddie to lynch? I don't know, there's a lot to consider. I do suggest however that villagers contact me through PMs for coordination. If you need to ask why, consider that I shot Arkasas after making a significant public effort to lynch him, and yesterday I led the charge on getting Sleepyhead lynched even before Wagon outed him. That's wolves of two different packs I played pivotal roles against, so I'd say I'm as cleared as anyone can be right now.
 

CaptainGrimlock

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So Wagon was trustworthy after all. This puts a new spin on things.
 

Dedonus

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So Wagon was trustworthy after all. This puts a new spin on things.
No he's not. He just hunted the one player with probably the best record against both packs (i.e. definitely not a wolf).
 

Culann

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No he's not. He just hunted the one player with probably the best record against both packs (i.e. definitely not a wolf).

I agree, what the village does next will be crucial. I for one won't be voting for Dedonus. As I said earlier too many ploys involved here and I can't begin to guess the depths of the machinations involved between the two warring packs.
 

CaptainGrimlock

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No he's not. He just hunted the one player with probably the best record against both packs (i.e. definitely not a wolf).
True, but keep in mind that he wants to win. If we win, he loses.
 

Ironhide G1

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Ok, village, it's important not to follow Wagon. Doing what he says is basically handing him the game. I've laid out an alternative here and he's just ignoring it because it would go badly for him. We need to lynch one of the unaligned baddies today. Sleepyhead's packmate will then use one of his hunts to kill wagon, and only one on a villager, narrowing the field to only one wolf pack, but giving goodies the numbers over the baddies again.

The other alternative is to follow him and basically hope that 1) Wagon holds to his agreement not to hunt the changeling who contacted him and win the game, and 2) that then the Changeling manages to pick exactly the right player to protect, and 3) they couldn't have protected that player before. The first point could be avoided if the actual changeling didn't contact Wagonlitz, but I have no idea what to expect in this particular game. But regardless, it's a crapshoot for the village to win if we follow Wagon, and our odds are better to lynch an unaligned baddie.

Who's the unaligned baddie to lynch? I don't know, there's a lot to consider. I do suggest however that villagers contact me through PMs for coordination. If you need to ask why, consider that I shot Arkasas after making a significant public effort to lynch him, and yesterday I led the charge on getting Sleepyhead lynched even before Wagon outed him. That's wolves of two different packs I played pivotal roles against, so I'd say I'm as cleared as anyone can be right now.
I agree. I'm not listening to a confirmed baddie.

Vote Wagonlitz
 

Ironhide G1

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True, but keep in mind that he wants to win. If we win, he loses.
You are really going out of your way to defend Wagon here. What kind of message do you think this sends?
 

Culann

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I've PM'd Aedan and I'm going to wait to see what his plan is, he is the most cleared player as we can get. A coordinated effort is the best shot the village has to lynch an unaligned baddie. I don't wish to tip the scales to the baddies so I believe discretion is key here.
 

CaptainGrimlock

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I’m not defending wagon, just saying that he didn’t lie about what he would do yesterday and would definitely want to keep his chances of winning high.
 

Dedonus

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Key:
Horns of Terror Pack
Hooves of Madness Pack

Day 1

R Graymarch: 5
Capibara (130)
Team Wombat (136)
Panzer (157)
Claude LC (171)
Witch Agatha (Chieron 137 > 173)

Avernite: 3
Grimlock (118)
Wagonlitz (125)
Arkasas (149)

Witch Agatha: 2
Sleepyhead (Panzer 129 > Capibara 139 > 150)
R. Graymarch (Emperor Ike 124 > 162)

Claude LC: 2
Dedonus (Witch Agatha 146 > 163)
Chieron (Capage 131 > 165)

Aedan: 1
Avernite (122 > tried to vote Witch Agatha, but didn't unvote 148)

Alxeu: 1
Emperor Ike (127)

Arkasas: 1
Alxeu (152)

Capibara: 1
Aedan (128)

Culann: 1
Capage (126)

JPassepartout:1
Culann (121)

Team Wombat: 1
J. Passepartout (116)

Wagonlitz: 1
Ironhide (123)

Capage: 0

Chieron: 0

Emperor Ike: 0

Day 2:
Emperor Ike: 6
Dedonus [226]
Capage [Witch Agatha 200 > failed to switch to CaptainGrimlock 219 > 238]
Ironhide G1 [242]
Arkasas [252]
CaptainGrimlock [Witch Agatha 193 > 256]
Culann [gromlock 257 > 274]

Arkasas: 5
Sleepyhead [184]
Witch Agatha [captain grimlock 192 > 202]
J.Passepartout [223]
Chieron [grimlock 229 > 271]
Emperor Ike [alxeu 233 > 284]

CaptainGrimlock: 2
Alxeu [capage 203 > 209]
Aedan [arkasas 197 > 286]

Witch Agatha: 1
Wagonlitz [194]

Alxeu: 1
Panzer Commader [236]

J.Passepartout: 1
Team Wombat [alxeu 208 > unvote 210 > ironhide 217 > 272]

Ironhide G1: 0

Capage: 0

Not Voted: 2
Capibara
Claude LC

Day 3:
J.Passepartout: 7
Aedan [317]
Capage [Arkasas 308 > 319]
Culann [aedan 309 > 337]
Panzer Commader [353]
Captain Grimlock [aedan 310 > 354]
Dedonus [alxeu 350 > 370]
Sleepyhead [ironhide 318 > wagonlitz 347 > 375]

CaptainGrimlock: 5
Team Wombat [322]
J.Passepartout [325]
Chieron [335]
Wagonlitz [348]
Arkasas [359]

Wagonlitz: 2
Witch Agatha [333]
Ironhide [336]

Claude LC: 1
Alxeu [360]

Aedan: 0

Alxeu: 0

Ironhide G1: 0

Arkasas: 0

Not Voted: 1
Claude LC :mad: :mad: :mad:

Day 4
Sleepyhead:
aedan
culann
wagonlitz
alxeu
team wombat
Dedonus
Ironhide
Chieron
Witch Agatha

Wagonlitz:
Sleepyhead
CaptainGrimlock

Not Voted:
Capage
 

aedan777

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I agree. I'm not listening to a confirmed baddie.

Vote Wagonlitz
Ok, so listening to Wagonlitz is definitely not a good idea. However, counterintuitive as it is, it is not in the interest of the village to lynch him either. Since apparently there are three wolves per pack this game, each pack has one wolf left. So if we lynch Wagon, the other pack still hunts tonight. The bad thing is that Sleepyhead, who was just lynched, was a wolf cub, so that means his packmate can hunt two people tonight. So if Wagon is telling the truth about baddie numbers, that there are three unaligned baddies left along with him and Sleepy's packmate, means that the hunts after we lynch Wagonlitz would bring the baddies to parity.

Now ideally we'd aim to tie Wagon with the other wolf, but with so many baddies left alive, I doubt we could pull it off. So instead I believe our course of action today should be to lynch an unaligned baddie. By doing so, we reduce total baddie numbers. The wolves can hunt twice tonight, but one of those is all but guaranteed to be on Wagonlitz, since the wolf hunting tonight is from the other pack. This will leave the numbers tomorrow as three baddies against four villagers, giving us a chance to win.

So we shouldn't lynch Wagon today, but as for who we should, I'm still compiling information to determine that.
 

aedan777

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Ok, so I still haven't received claims from all players, but I've narrowed the suspect list a bit, and I'm all but certain I've identified a non-wolf baddie. We can thank Wagonlitz for this, since the smoking gun comes from his mass of quotes to prove his former deal with Sleepy.

UTJrTwT.png

Here we see Wagonlitz talking to one of his pack's cultists. There seem to have been some communication problems for his pack with the cultists, and this is straightening that out. Now we don't know what the cultist said, but we can infer. Wagon's second line is one of the most important here, as he explains how the hunt on MAW happened, in a defensive manner. I suspect the cultist here was questioning Wagonlitz on that hunt choice, in a confrontational manner. As MAW and Deathbywombat are brothers, I consider the latter the most likely candidate to have done this. Ironhide's also related so could also have asked.

The first line is also potentially telling. "I listen to you," the implication here is that the cultist addressing Wagonlitz believes that Wagon doesn't listen to him (or alternatively other people in general). This suggests whomever this cultist is they have a history with Wagon, which narrows the field a bit, particularly since Wagon disagrees without qualification. I think a newer player would not have had this exchange, or that Wagon would have responded differently.

Moving on, we see a bit down that Wagonlitz is saying that he'll hold to the agreement with Sleepyhead's pack, in a serious manner, invoking his word. Whomever is talking to Wagon here used a serious tone, and is not deferring to him a way a newer player might.

Next we see Wagon explaining why he and Arkasas openly voted for the seer day 1, obviously in response to a question on that front, indicating that the cultist here is paying attention and aware of the danger such a move will bring to them. Once again, pointing to a more experienced player.

Overall I think this evidence points overwhelmingly towards Deathbywombat being the cultist in communication with Wagonlitz here. No other surviving player fits nearly as well. Now this is coming from evidence Wagon furnished, so it's possibly suspect. I'm personally a little dubious on some of the names provided in his list of quotes, they could be red herrings to protect unaligned baddies. However this is more subtle, from an involved conversation, I find it quite unlikely that Wagon fabricated this exchange. To what end would he have done it anyways? He's wanting to lynch Dedonus, not Deathbywombat. Since the best odds for the village is to lynch a non-wolf at this juncture, I insist in all villagers voting to lynch Deathbywombat today.

Vote Deathbywombat (or Team Wombat if I must)
 

Team Wombat

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Ok, so I still haven't received claims from all players, but I've narrowed the suspect list a bit, and I'm all but certain I've identified a non-wolf baddie. We can thank Wagonlitz for this, since the smoking gun comes from his mass of quotes to prove his former deal with Sleepy.

UTJrTwT.png

Here we see Wagonlitz talking to one of his pack's cultists. There seem to have been some communication problems for his pack with the cultists, and this is straightening that out. Now we don't know what the cultist said, but we can infer. Wagon's second line is one of the most important here, as he explains how the hunt on MAW happened, in a defensive manner. I suspect the cultist here was questioning Wagonlitz on that hunt choice, in a confrontational manner. As MAW and Deathbywombat are brothers, I consider the latter the most likely candidate to have done this. Ironhide's also related so could also have asked.

The first line is also potentially telling. "I listen to you," the implication here is that the cultist addressing Wagonlitz believes that Wagon doesn't listen to him (or alternatively other people in general). This suggests whomever this cultist is they have a history with Wagon, which narrows the field a bit, particularly since Wagon disagrees without qualification. I think a newer player would not have had this exchange, or that Wagon would have responded differently.

Moving on, we see a bit down that Wagonlitz is saying that he'll hold to the agreement with Sleepyhead's pack, in a serious manner, invoking his word. Whomever is talking to Wagon here used a serious tone, and is not deferring to him a way a newer player might.

Next we see Wagon explaining why he and Arkasas openly voted for the seer day 1, obviously in response to a question on that front, indicating that the cultist here is paying attention and aware of the danger such a move will bring to them. Once again, pointing to a more experienced player.

Overall I think this evidence points overwhelmingly towards Deathbywombat being the cultist in communication with Wagonlitz here. No other surviving player fits nearly as well. Now this is coming from evidence Wagon furnished, so it's possibly suspect. I'm personally a little dubious on some of the names provided in his list of quotes, they could be red herrings to protect unaligned baddies. However this is more subtle, from an involved conversation, I find it quite unlikely that Wagon fabricated this exchange. To what end would he have done it anyways? He's wanting to lynch Dedonus, not Deathbywombat. Since the best odds for the village is to lynch a non-wolf at this juncture, I insist in all villagers voting to lynch Deathbywombat today.

Vote Deathbywombat (or Team Wombat if I must)
Normally I'd spend some time fighting this, but I'll make this easy because 1) the PMs, (or perhaps more accurately incidental information within the PMs) are pretty definitive to anyone paying attention; 2) any competent priest worth his salt already scanned me already by now; and 3) I'm sort of hoping the village wins at this point and I don't want to spend the next day or so ranting in PMs at a flagrantly incompetent baddie side. Team Wombat, cultist of the Hooves of Madness, at your service.

Suffice it to say both Wagonlitz and Sleepyhead played this extremely winnable game in a selfish and stupid fashion reminiscent of CaesarCzech in his days of infamy, and the baddies might
(perhaps even will probably, if they hit the changeling or a cursed with their hunt instead of blundering into whacking Wagonlitz like a drunken lemur - HINT HINT HINT) still win despite the efforts of certain unnamed players to throw the game to the village. I'll have further words after the game, but will probably need to take a break from WW for a bit, as early revenge hunts will be incoming if I play again anytime soon as a baddie, which is no fun for anyone.

FWIW, I don't actually know the name of the last wolf of the Horns of Terror, either (which is criminally stupid in its own right, but that's another matter). I have a guess (I actually don't think it's Dedonus, but could be wrong on that score), but am not 100% certain.


Vote aedan777

Just for the heck of it. Well played on his part (except for the arkasas miscount), no matter the result. Actually, WitchAgatha played a pretty good game as well.

Good luck, everyone. Wombat out.
 

Dedonus

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Well, at least this saves me the time I would have spent writing an argument trying to fit Wombat into the Hooves pack (as Wagon's pm's indicated the cultists were originally on his side).

VOTE Team Wombat
 

aedan777

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alxeu

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Vote Team Wombat/DeathByWombat

Since Wombat isn't even denying it.
 

MAWofdoom

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I manage to die night 0 before information can be made and yet somehow my death still kills my brother. This is quite strange and sad. I was going to say I was rather happy I died early since I would have hated to be involved in the inter pack fighting of this game but it seems wagonlitz's dealings even destroy that feeling. Good luck last horn of terror and remaining cultists!