WW CCXLVII - DOOM OF THE WEREYAK 8: HASTINAPUR, 722 BC

[CaptainGrimlock]

Shouldn’t this

current voting

@Arkasas -1- @Sleepyhead ; @aedan777
@CaptainGrimlock -1- @Witch Agatha
@Witch Agatha -2- @CaptainGrimlock ; @Wagonlitz

not voted

everyone else

Read Arkasas -2-?

 

[Witch Agatha]

Sure, run me up a second day in a row. Lynch a villager who is actually active, not to mention was voted by a cultist.

UNVOTE GRIMLOCK
VOTE ARKANSAS

I used to get a lot less attention when I was a zombie.

 

[alxeu]

Vote Capage


For lazily voting Agatha. I don't like it.

 

[Capage]

Sure, run me up a second day in a row. Lynch a villager who is actually active, not to mention was voted by a cultist.

UNVOTE GRIMLOCK
VOTE ARKANSAS

I used to get a lot less attention when I was a zombie.

Does a cultist voting you mean anything? I don't think they were connected to a pack this early. Your vote there, obviously a self-press. The wagon on you consisted of people I kinda dislike in general, so that gives you some credit.
Did you have any specific reason to vote Grey over Avernite?

 

[Capage]

Vote Capage


For lazily voting Agatha. I don't like it.

Frankly, I find your throwaway votes lazier than my vote with at least a hint of case behind it. You are so lazy here that you didn't take a look at other people voting for Agatha and their lazy votes.
One more thing about Agatha:

Sure, run me up a second day in a row. Lynch a villager who is actually active, not to mention was voted by a cultist.

I'm not confident about you being a baddie. With zero real wolves dead and most people making a minimum of posts so far, it's difficult to build a proper case, but the appeal to emotion in this post is something I dislike and find wolfy in general.

 

[Team Wombat]

Thanks for the headcound
No idea but trying to save my life
As Avernite died early last game, I will push Witch Agatha for now

Unvote Emperor Ike
Vote Witch Agatha

Day 1


@R.Graymarch CULTIST OF THE HORNS OF TERROR was lynched!
@Avernite , the wise guru and SEER! was hunted!

Players should be receiving PMs shortly...

Does a cultist voting you mean anything? I don't think they were connected to a pack this early. Your vote there, obviously a self-press. The wagon on you consisted of people I kinda dislike in general, so that gives you some credit.
Did you have any specific reason to vote Grey over Avernite?

Quick heads up - we know from the update that R.Graymarch was attached to the pack down two people - the horns of terror or whatever it was called. (MAWofDoom was a Yak of that pack, hunted night 0).

 

[Witch Agatha]

Did you have any specific reason to vote Grey over Avernite?

i didn’t feel like lynching Avernite on day 1 was fair, when he died so early last game.

but the appeal to emotion in this post is something I dislike and find wolfy in general.
and yes it’s emotional, I’m frustrated that I get run up so easily. I guess people just

And yes, its emotional, cause I’m frustrated that I get run up so easily. Guess people just don’t like me

 

[Team Wombat]

Vote Capage


For lazily voting Agatha. I don't like it.

Frankly, I find your throwaway votes lazier than my vote with at least a hint of case behind it. You are so lazy here that you didn't take a look at other people voting for Agatha and their lazy votes.

I'm inclined to agree with Capage here - Capage put some reasoning behind his vote, and blithely dismissing it rubs me the wrong way. With that said, I do tend to read frustration, at least on the Paradox forums, as a goodie tell, and am more inclined to read Witch Agatha as goodie rather than otherwise.

Vote alxeu

i didn’t feel like lynching Avernite on day 1 was fair, when he died so early last game.



And yes, its emotional, cause I’m frustrated that I get run up so easily. Guess people just don’t like me

Just remember it's not personal - after you get a few games under your belt, you lose your newbie protection and tend to be targeted more frequently. Call it a Paradox rite of passage.

 

[alxeu]

Frankly, I find your throwaway votes lazier than my vote with at least a hint of case behind it. You are so lazy here that you didn't take a look at other people voting for Agatha and their lazy votes.
One more thing about Agatha:


I'm not confident about you being a baddie. With zero real wolves dead and most people making a minimum of posts so far, it's difficult to build a proper case, but the appeal to emotion in this post is something I dislike and find wolfy in general.

Because a vote on you at this time of day is clearly a throwaway. Most people haven't even voted yet?

And I vote you as the lazy one here because you specifically list one of your reasons for voting Agatha as "making a proper wagon," you may have other, more valid reasons, but that's just silly. Why not just elaborate and expand on them. You were much more coherent in defending yourself then you were making your vote just now. In addition, if you feel the other voters of Agatha were lazy here, why did you follow them? Or at least even try to engage with them?

I'm inclined to agree with Capage here - Capage put some reasoning behind his vote, and blithely dismissing it rubs me the wrong way. With that said, I do tend to read frustration, at least on the Paradox forums, as a goodie tell, and am more inclined to read Witch Agatha as goodie rather than otherwise.

Vote alxeu


Just remember it's not personal - after you get a few games under your belt, you lose your newbie protection and tend to be targeted more frequently. Call it a Paradox rite of passage.

It's not a blithe dismissal. The post itself is lazy and formulaic. It's quite easy to list three people you find suspicious, then hop on whichever one suits your current purposes best.

For example,

I agree with aedan that Arkasas is suspicious, as he broke a tie that included known baddie R.Graymarch, saving R.Graymarch in the process while pushing up the (now known) seer. That the Horns of Terror were the ones who probably hunted last night means that if they did know who the seer was, Arkasas' vote seems all the more pronounced.
Grimlock is suspicious for immediately revenge voting Agatha. I mean, come on, man.
Capage is suspicious for a lazy vote, as well as now acknowledging that the other Agatha voters are lazy and still following a case that was started and built by lazy people.

Of the three cases, I feel that Capage should be the one we pursue.

[Insert Vote Here]

And while it may have been previously discussed that which makes Sleepyhead and Arkasas suspicious, and I am fine with Capage just saying "I like aedan's reasoning," I'd at least like some engagement and reasoning as to why Capage finds Sleepy suspicious. I can only assume it's because of Sleepy's reason for voting Arkasas.

Also, this is funny, in retrospect:

Sleepyhead's post used a lot of words to avoid voting both Captain Grim and Wagon. I kinda side with Panzer on reasoning being weak.

Posted earlier today. Not only did Sleepy absolutely avoid voting Grimlock and Wagon, but now both of those same people are voting together on Agatha.

Unvote Capage
Vote Grimlock

This is actually odd enough to not ignore, in my opinion.

 

[Team Wombat]

Because a vote on you at this time of day is clearly a throwaway. Most people haven't even voted yet?

And I vote you as the lazy one here because you specifically list one of your reasons for voting Agatha as "making a proper wagon," you may have other, more valid reasons, but that's just silly. Why not just elaborate and expand on them. You were much more coherent in defending yourself then you were making your vote just now. In addition, if you feel the other voters of Agatha were lazy here, why did you follow them? Or at least even try to engage with them?



It's not a blithe dismissal. The post itself is lazy and formulaic. It's quite easy to list three people you find suspicious, then hop on whichever one suits your current purposes best.

For example,

I agree with aedan that Arkasas is suspicious, as he broke a tie that included known baddie R.Graymarch, saving R.Graymarch in the process while pushing up the (now known) seer. That the Horns of Terror were the ones who probably hunted last night means that if they did know who the seer was, Arkasas' vote seems all the more pronounced.
Grimlock is suspicious for immediately revenge voting Agatha. I mean, come on, man.
Capage is suspicious for a lazy vote, as well as now acknowledging that the other Agatha voters are lazy and still following a case that was started and built by lazy people.

Of the three cases, I feel that Capage should be the one we pursue.

[Insert Vote Here]

And while it may have been previously discussed that which makes Sleepyhead and Arkasas suspicious, and I am fine with Capage just saying "I like aedan's reasoning," I'd at least like some engagement and reasoning as to why Capage finds Sleepy suspicious. I can only assume it's because of Sleepy's reason for voting Arkasas.

Also, this is funny, in retrospect:




Posted earlier today. Not only did Sleepy absolutely avoid voting Grimlock and Wagon, but now both of those same people are voting together on Agatha.

Unvote Capage
Vote Grimlock

This is actually odd enough to not ignore, in my opinion.

Much better.

Unvote alxeu

 

[Team Wombat]

We can be pretty certain that there are two packs in the game (unless the Horns of Terror hunted one of their members, which is ridiculously unlikely for anyone not named Jam1300.)
Secondly, barring some wonky hunt order, the Horns (maybe Horn?) of Terror - the pack that's already lost 2 members - almost certainly hunted Avernite. Typical hunt order in a 2 pack game is ABAB; another possible hunt order is ABBA. I can't think of any games that have an AABB hunt order - which would be needed for the Horns not to be the hunters.
Now, we've only got 21 players to start with. For a balanced game (following the 33% baddies rule for a 2 pack game, as set by johho), standard pack sizes would be 3 to a pack, with a sorc. I suppose it could technically be a 3 pack game, but that would make for very thin packs (if 2 to a pack) or way too many baddies (if 3 to a pack).

 

[Team Wombat]

Comparison of Cheiron's helpful vote count near the end of the day: and final vote count for Day 1:

Well, let's try an unofficial vote count of this mess..


Avernite: 3
Grimlock (118)
Wagonlitz (125)
Arkasas (149)

Witch Agatha: 3
Dedonus (146)
Avernite (148)
Sleepyhead (Panzer 129 -> Capibara 139 -> 150)

R Graymarch: 2
Capibara (130)
Team Wombat (136)
Panzer (157)

Aedan: 1
Avernite (122)

Alxeu: 1
Emperor Ika (127)

Arkasas: 1
Alxeu (152)

Capage: 1
Chieron (131)

Capibara: 1
Aedan (128)

Chieron: 1
Witch Agatha (137)

Culann: 1
Capage (126)

Emperor Ike: 1
R. Graymarch (124)

JPassepartout:1
Culann (121)

Wagonlitz: 1
Ironhide (123)


Not voted: @Claude LC

Vote Count

@Team Wombat -1- @J. Passepartout
@Avernite -3- @CaptainGrimlock ; @Wagonlitz ; @Arkasas
@J. Passepartout -1- @Culann
@aedan777 -1- @Avernite
@Wagonlitz -1- @Ironhide G1
@Culann -1- @Capage
@alxeu -1- @Emperor Ike
@Capibara -1- @aedan777
@R.Graymarch -5- @Capibara ; @Team Wombat ; @Panzer Commader ; @Claude LC ; @Witch Agatha
@Witch Agatha -2- @R.Graymarch ; @Sleepyhead
@Arkasas -1- @alxeu
@Claude LC -2- @Dedonus ; @Chieron

if i got anything wrong, please correct me. you have a few minutes...

 

[Dedonus]

Unofficial Vote Count​

Arkasas: 3
Sleepyhead [184]
Aedan [197]
Witch Agatha [captain grimlok 192 > 202]

Witch Agatha: 3
CaptainGrimlock [193]
Wagonlitz [194]
Capage [200]

CaptainGrimlock: 1
Alxeu [capage 203 > 209]

Alxeu: 0

Capage: 0

Not Voted: 11
@Team Wombat [alxeu 208 > unvote 210]
@Arkasas
@Culann
@Panzer Commader
@Capibara
J. Passepartout
Ironhide G1
Chieron
Claude LC
Dedonus
Emperor Ike

P.S. Colored vote count incoming.

 

[Team Wombat]

Thank heaven for Dedonus - he makes life/analysis so much easier.

 

[Team Wombat]

So, takeaways:

1) Dedonus tried to introduce a new candidate (ClaudeLC), which didn't go anywhere (in part because Claude actually showed). New candidate not gaining traction might be a member of a second pack? It's thin, but a possible lead.
2) I think we can be pretty certain Witch Agatha isn't a part of the Horns of Terror, at least, as Graymarch switched to her instead of a known goodie (Avernite), pushing her into the lead briefly if my count is correct. Doesn't stop her from being part of another pack, of course. Assuming Agatha isn't a Horn of Terror, I think it's pretty clear Claude isn't a Horn, either, as well, as he voted Graymarch instead of Agatha or Avernite when all of them were in danger.
3) Votes on Avernite stayed remarkably steady - no one switched on or off him aside from the 3 players that voted him. Grimlock was apparently on at deadline (see post 151, below), but Wagon and Arkasas were not, it appears.

I really haven’t seen a reason to move my vote yet, so unless some Jam style shenanigans happen, I’ll stay right here.

 

[Dedonus]

Key:
Horns of Terror
Unknown Second Pack

Spoiler: Day 1 Final Vote

R Graymarch: 2
Capibara (130)
Team Wombat (136)
Panzer (157)
Claude LC (171)
Witch Agatha (Chieron 137 > 173)

Avernite: 3
Grimlock (118)
Wagonlitz (125)
Arkasas (149)

Witch Agatha: 2
Sleepyhead (Panzer 129 > Capibara 139 > 150)
R. Graymarch (Emperor Ike 124 > 162)

Claude LC: 2
Dedonus (Witch Agatha 146 > 163)
Chieron (Capage 131 > 165)

Aedan: 1
Avernite (122 > tried to vote Witch Agatha, but didn't unvote 148)

Alxeu: 1
Emperor Ika (127)

Arkasas: 1
Alxeu (152)

Capibara: 1
Aedan (128)

Culann: 1
Capage (126)

JPassepartout:1
Culann (121)

Wagonlitz: 1
Ironhide (123)

Capage: 0

Chieron: 0

Emperor Ike: 0

 

[Team Wombat]

Vote IronhideG1

Palceholder, for now (need to pick up food), but also a day 1 throwaway fire and forget vote on wagon, who was never in danger. I'd appreciate some contribution out of my cousin.

 

[Team Wombat]

Ok this looks mighty suspicious in my view for a first day. Graymarch got into the lead quite late with no real pushback and was a part of a pack now down two, so I think the above is better to focus on.

I'll excuse CaptainGrimlock for casting the first of what appears to be a random vote. But Wagon piled on and Arkasas as well with a very lazy vote at a late stage. If a pack either knew Avernite's identity (sorc starts in contact with a pack and cultists can scan to boot, I just checked the rules) or believed he was saved, they could've resorted with a hunt. I'd say both Arkasas and Wagonlitz need a look at. I think Arky looks worse and will start there.

Vote Arkasas

This doesn't really make sense. If a pack knew the seer's identity and had the hunt they would rather hunt than lynch him 100% of the time

Sleepy's case is exceptionally moronic. First the possibility that the wolves would know the seer by day 1 is ludicrously low and unlikely, it's more likely they hit the seer by random chance. And even if they did, the wolves would have absolutely no reason to then try and lynch him, since they can just hunt him that night. It's pointless to try and lynch him, because firstly it's a crapshoot trying to get someone specific lynched day 1, and second if they succeed that's just painting a target on their back because there's no easier vote for lazy villagers, and wolves of the other pack, than "X lynched the seer."

And he himself admits his theory only has a chance of being right if the wolves are stupid. And it's moronic to presuppose the wolves are stupid before making a case against them.

But what strikes me the most about Sleepyhead's case against Arkasas, is that there is an actual valid case against Arkasas, not one which relies upon wild luck and Arkasas being stupid. Arkasas' vote on Avernite isn't suspicious because Avernite turned out to be the seer, but because when Arkasas made it there was a threeway tie between Avernite, Agatha, and Graymarch, which he broke in favor of lynching avernite. Now granted there wasn't really a votecount and so it's difficult to conclusively say Arkasas knew he was doing that, but Graymarch had had two votes for a while. Since Arkasas' vote was made with about an hour to deadline, it's possible that this was a defensive vote to protect Graymarch.

At the very least it's much more likely than the wolves finding out the seer day 1 and trying to publicly lynch him for no reason.

Vote Arkasas

quick reminder to myself to comment on these when I get back.

 

[Capage]

Because a vote on you at this time of day is clearly a throwaway. Most people haven't even voted yet?

And I vote you as the lazy one here because you specifically list one of your reasons for voting Agatha as "making a proper wagon," you may have other, more valid reasons, but that's just silly. Why not just elaborate and expand on them. You were much more coherent in defending yourself then you were making your vote just now. In addition, if you feel the other voters of Agatha were lazy here, why did you follow them? Or at least even try to engage with them?

I respect this as a defense. Yeah, making it a wagon is a silly reason and i posted it because I'm aware that the third vote's often a wolf. I think having established wagons is important for villagers too, tho. I think the biggest portion of my "case" was the bland way Agatha voted Captain Grim. I weighted in the Chieron vote and her being the last person to vote Grey (but taking a retrospective look at that, her vote there was justified).

Btw, this is an overall great post from you and I'm glad that light pressure led to such a wealthy (and villagery) response.

Posted earlier today. Not only did Sleepy absolutely avoid voting Grimlock and Wagon, but now both of those same people are voting together on Agatha.

Unvote Capage
Vote Grimlock

This is actually odd enough to not ignore, in my opinion.

Yeah, but that probably means the two of them aren't in the same pack. I would suspect Wagon/Sleepy being in one pack and Grim villa/second pack/cultist. Grim more than anyone else looks reactive. I would like to point out his interaction with Dedonus (who policy voted non-voters yesterday), which could be w/w imho.

vote witch agatha

She's in the game, right?

edit: err...I was going off of what the last vote count was saying...

Yeah, Agatha’s here.
(it was her all along.)

Arkasas might be a wolf, but he's def not with Sleepy/Wagon and Aedan following Sleepy, while calling him out, feels distantly villagery but it's kind of dissonant too.
I don't quite want to vote Sleepy, because he has been active and despite some lapses in logic, the activity helps us.


UNVOTE
VOTE CAPTAIN GRIMLOCK

Actually, there are some rather silent types (Culann, Dedonus, Chieron, Ike) I would like to put under pressure later on.

 

[R.Graymarch]

Friendly reminder that it's Graymarch^^