Would Germany done better if

[TheRomanRuler]

...They never would have gotten to war with the west (WW2) and would have been able to invade Soviet Union in 1939? Their army would have been equipped with obsolete tanks, they would lack experience, but Soviet Union would have been marginally weaker too and Germany could have used 100% of her forces against Soviet Union due to lack of 2 front war. Even many flak regiments could have been dispanded and sent to the front as Luftwaffe infantry, which would have had time to be trained as proper infantry unit, if that would have ever even been necessary!
I can`t say which one would have been better for them, either way there would be major weaknesses, but without war with the western nations(including Poland) Germany would have done more mistakes in eastern front where they could not afford it- expect without massive area to occupy they might have been able to afford it. And German tactics would have become as a surprise in 1939, historically Soviets had plan (that failed) to defend against German blitzkrieg, 3 lines of defense (strategically, tactically that would be thousands of lines) where first Germans would be slowed down, then halted and then driven back. Like in Kursk. But Germany may not have had experience in weaponry and/or tactics which not only managed to match extreme odds, but also to beat them. Becouse on paper Germany should have lost in 1939, already at 2 front war, smaller numbers and worse tanks, and only experience and time could improve that, their aggressive doctorine based on suprise + concentration of forces could only take them so far...
Well, i think nothing what i just said came as suprise to most of you, so i am just going to stop repeating not only myself but to many documentaries about WW2 So, would Germany have done better in WW2 without early wars against Poland and France? Without those wars, Tiger tanks would not have been developed (at least as early as they were) and German tanks would have done even worse against T34s - altough it was not yet in service in 1939, but masses of Soviet light tanks would have been almost equal to German Panzer 2s and 3s.

 

[Amallric]

How to attack the Soviet Union without attacking Poland?

 

[TheRomanRuler]

How to attack the Soviet Union without attacking Poland?

I forgot to say that; Via Danzig and East Prussia, there were some plans at first to do so.

 

[Amallric]

East Prussia had no border with the Soviet Union.

 

[sgt.stickybomb]

Germany did use 100% of their force and then some, attacking in 1941 meant that other axis countries and non-axis countries that are vengeful towards the USSR (like Romania and Finland) could participate in the attack. Moreover, the battle of France helped improve the German fighting capability by elucidating them on what to do/ not to do during an invasion. Additionally, Germany went into the Soviet Union with much higher morale due to their recent victory against France then they would have otherwise had if they invaded in 1939.
Germany already had most odds stacked in their favor.
If Stalin was a little bit less stubborn, T-34 less awesome, and the winter less cold, then Germany would have won.

 

[krieger11b]

I forgot to say that; Via Danzig and East Prussia, there were some plans at first to do so.

I assume this invovles invading Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia without the western allies doing what they did in 1939? In any case it would have bottlenecked the supplies even worse than the impossible situation they had in 1941.

Now if somehow Germany was able to get the Baltic States and Poland to trust them enough to allow them military access that would be an entirely new scenerio, I don't see how, but let's just say they did for arguments sake.

Germany would have had FAR more manpower available just from the real life occupations of said countries and the western ones had, I think this means something like 2 million or more extra soldiers for combat. Then lets take in effect that this allows more skilled German workers to stay in the factories and not rely on child/slave labor which was a huge hamper on their production abilities.

Then there is the fact that with no one even having seen Blitzkrieg before it would have worked better on the USSR than it did in 1941, further more the tanks situation would have been better on the German side. Germany invaded in 1941 with what was essentially the same kind of tanks they used in 1939 in Poland, just with more/better Panzer IIIs/IVs. Even if it was mostly Panzer IIs going against BT-5 tanks, you are looking at much better better odds than a Panzer III going against T-34s.

Finally a wild card is if the allies would have restricted the flow of strategic goods and food to Germany in this scenerio. There is good documentation that they tolerated German rearmament to a large degree because it would be a large buffer state against the USSR. If Germany had access to all it's oil/food/strategic needs than it would have been a scary monster to face.

 

[ap08]

The only reason why the Germans were initially successful was their sudden attack of the Soviet army massed near the border. They were able to destroy the Soviet aviation and gain total air superiority from day one, destroy or even capture munitions and weapons, create chaos and encircle large parts of the Soviet army. None of this would have happened in the scenario proposed by the OP, it would have resulted in a complete disaster for Germany.

 

[D Inqu]

Then there is the fact that with no one even having seen Blitzkrieg before it would have worked better on the USSR than it did in 1941, further more the tanks situation would have been better on the German side. Germany invaded in 1941 with what was essentially the same kind of tanks they used in 1939 in Poland, just with more/better Panzer IIIs/IVs. Even if it was mostly Panzer IIs going against BT-5 tanks, you are looking at much better better odds than a Panzer III going against T-34s.

The German Army in 1939 was much weaker than in 1941 in all respects: size, equipment numbers, equipment quality, and most importantly tactics and experience.

 

[Andre Bolkonsky]

The only way this thesis makes any sense whatsoever is that Germany cuts the political deal with Stalin, they carve up Poland, and France and England stay out of the fight and let the Socialist and Communist governments of Hitler and Stalin go at one another unchecked.

After Poland, Hitler reorganizes his forces and reinforces heavily for the coming conflict. The Westwall would be heavily reinforced and left as a static line of defense with a sufficient garrison. All other military assetts would be focused on Russia. Political pressure would be brought to bear on the Axis minor powers, and it might conceivably be believed they would join Hitler, 'or else'.

At a time of their choosing in '41, Hitler would break the Non-Agression pact early enough in spring/summer to avoid the rasputista and accomplish the degredation of Russia's frontline units and the capture of Moscow. The Germans might have been wise enough to pack winter uniforms this time, but who knows for sure, and perhaps with Moscow's C&C structure disabled and the government in exile long before Zhukov's Siberians could be brought to bear, the Soviets would sue for peace on Germany's terms. Russia would still be concerned about Japan and frozen in the far east military districts, Russia would be pushed back to the Urals in a few years time without direct Western intervention.

Theoretically, this could occur, and Germany would then be free to turn West, and nothing could stop their control of Greater Germania, from the Urals to the Atlantic and the British Isles.

The horror that would occur under full Nazi occupation is too great to contemplate. And thank God above this is a theoretical scenario.

 

[krieger11b]

The German Army in 1939 was much weaker than in 1941 in all respects: size, equipment numbers, equipment quality, and most importantly tactics and experience.

I will grant you what you said to a point. The USSR also lacked experience too, the lessons learned from the Winter War was critical. While most of it was not implemented, one of the key changes did happen, removing political officers from being able to override military commanders. They were a disaster for the Red Army. It was demoralizing and in at least one case in the Winter War when the commanders were surrounded they decided to retreat and were promptly shot by the Commisar, ending with the complete destruction of the unit.

Blitzkrieg, though not tested and hashed out completely, was what the German Army was training for and would have had some sucess in it like in Poland, with the Soviet Union having no idea about the concept.

The smaller Army was going to hurt no doubt, it would have depened greatly on how the initial part of the war went.

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

The horror that would occur under full Nazi occupation is too great to contemplate. And thank God above this is a theoretical scenario.

+1

 

[pithorr]

How to attack the Soviet Union without attacking Poland?

By convincing Poland to ally with them against the USSR? Not quite unlike.

 

[trybald]

By convincing Poland to ally with them against the USSR? Not quite unlike.

First he would need to stage a coup in Poland and replace her leadership with cretins who would see bordering Germany from all sides as a bretty good idea.

 

[pithorr]

First he would need to stage a coup in Poland and replace her leadership with cretins who would see bordering Germany from all sides as a bretty good idea.

Well, it was just a simple answer, you unnecessarily elaborated it too much

 

[Kuipy]

Well Poland did back the Germans at Munich for some Czech clay... Did they have irredentist claim on the USSR ? I don't know. Maybe on Lithuania?

 

[pithorr]

Well Poland did back the Germans at Munich for some Czech clay... Did they have irredentist claim on the USSR ? I don't know. Maybe on Lithuania?

Wut? Poland did not participate in Munich agreement. Czech clay was transferred on the basis of billateral Polish-Czechoslovakian agreement in the eve of the German occupation of Czechoslovakia.

 

[trybald]

Also, the clay was taken only after the Polish proposal to wage war with Germany was rebuffed by UK & co.

 

[Culise]

Wut? Poland did not participate in Munich agreement. Czech clay was transferred on the basis of billateral Polish-Czechoslovakian agreement in the eve of the German occupation of Czechoslovakia.

Of course, the use of "bilateral" seems a bit off, albeit accurate in the sense that a mugging is a bilateral means of economic exchange. When the Czech government met to discuss the Polish demands on September 29, they considered that, to quote, "the form is milder, but the content and methods are the same." Attempts to postpone the decision were futile; the final ultimatum from Poland on September 30 was even stronger, demanding the withdrawal of Czech troops and police (as well as, apparently, the release of all Polish-speaking Czechoslovak citizens considered political prisoners, assuming this translation didn't go pear-shaped) within 24 hours, which put the deadline at noon of October 1. It was essentially extortion in the same way as the Hungarian and German annexations were. Poland largely gets a pass because it became a victim of Nazi Germany and the USSR very soon after, meaning that the Polish consolidation of authority only had a year to get started.

 

[pithorr]

Of course, the use of "bilateral" seems a bit off, albeit accurate in the sense that a mugging is a bilateral means of economic exchange. When the Czech government met to discuss the Polish demands on September 29, they considered that, to quote, "the form is milder, but the content and methods are the same." Attempts to postpone the decision were futile; the final ultimatum from Poland on September 30 was even stronger, demanding the withdrawal of Czech troops and police (as well as, apparently, the release of all Polish-speaking Czechoslovak citizens considered political prisoners, assuming this translation didn't go pear-shaped) within 24 hours, which put the deadline at noon of October 1. It was essentially extortion in the same way as the Hungarian and German annexations were. Poland largely gets a pass because it became a victim of Nazi Germany and the USSR very soon after, meaning that the Polish consolidation of authority only had a year to get started.

Well, technically you are right, there was ultimatum issued on 30th September 1938, mostly because Czechoslovak government delayed its rather unclear earlier promise to transfer such territories to Poland what could give the opportunity for the Germans to seize them. There were even some clashes between advancing Polish and German forces near Bogumin.

 

[Amallric]

Well Poland did back the Germans at Munich for some Czech clay... Did they have irredentist claim on the USSR ? I don't know. Maybe on Lithuania?

I don't think Interwar Poland needed any kind of 'irredentist claim' to wage war against the Soviet Union. The only thing that stopped them was the utter impossibility of victory in such a war.