Will Poland And Romania be "allied" by default at the start of the game?

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Bane5

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With the latest DD, it seems that Romania will be getting fleshed out in greater detail. One big potential game changer is the cordon sanitaire alliance which Poland and Romania had signed since the early 1920s. This defensive alliance was aimed at containing the Soviet Union. In 1927, this treaty was expanded to include any potential aggressor.

One of the things not clear from the DD and from the follow-up responses in the thread is how this is represented exactly. Seeing the new focus tree in the dev diary has me worried that Poland and Romania start completely neutral to each other and only form some pact optionally through focuses.

The way I hope its represented from both a balance and a historical standpoint: is that Poland and Romania start the game with guarantees on each other that can't be broken until a certain date (1938 would be very historical, ties were affirmed then) or until a regime change happens in either country. Historically it functions the same as a defensive alliance would. From a balance perspective it solves the issues of the soviet union doing a "day 1" justification and declaring war on Romania in 1936 and Germany declaring war on Poland in 1936 as well. Some military buildup is required by either major power to take on Romania or Poland at the same time. Doing such prevents the game from being too easy.

Some clarification on how it works would be nice.

-------------------

P.S. I do hope we see more interweaving of focus trees. For example Poland should have a focus to invite Romania to the Intermarium/Medzmorze but ONLY IF Romania agreed to renew the Polish-Romanian alliance. Another example would be to allow Poland to invite Hungary via focus ONLY IF Romania is already in AND Romania has chosen to mend ties with Hungary--renaming the faction to "third europe" (historically this was attempted but Hungary and Romania wouldn't agree to be in the same alliance with each other). The same could be said about interweaving focuses between Romania and France and between Romania and Germany. Doing such makes geopolitics more interesting in-game.
 
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Bagfisch

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From a balance perspective it solves the issues of the soviet union doing a "day 1" justification and declaring war on Romania in 1936 and Germany declaring war on Poland in 1936 as well.
Quite the opposite, both Germany and the Soviet Union are strong enough to beat both nations at once menaing they would just annex both and become even stronger, especially since you would be giving Germany direct access to oil.
 

Bane5

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Quite the opposite, both Germany and the Soviet Union are strong enough to beat both nations at once menaing they would just annex both and become even stronger, especially since you would be giving Germany direct access to oil.

If you combine Romania & Poland's starting factory count (49)[16M, 3D, 30C] you get the exact same number as France (50)[6M, 8D, 36C] or Italy (50)[19M, 11D, 20C] and, more importantly, a whopping 71 divisions at start total. For comparison, Germany has 30 divisions in 1936.

The two combined are effectively a "psuedo-major". In multiplayer, two competent players could certainly hold with some well-placed forts and that is where the biggest potential rests for game balance.

Of course in single player, you can cheese the AI with some gimmicks always and even beat Germany as Poland or France in an early war. That said most players who play casually won't be be able to. The longer the military buildup, the better chance of success.
 
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Opanashc

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If you combine Romania & Poland's starting factory count you get the exact same number as France (less of which are dockyards) and slightly under 70 divisions at start. The two combined are effectively a "psuedo-major". In multiplayer, two competent players could certainly hold and that is where the biggest potential rests.
9 MIL for Poland, 7 for Romania vs 36 for Soviets. 57 Inf and MTN divisions vs 73 such divisions for Soviets, not counting Red Army tanks. If a war starts in '36, Poland and Romania are doomed.
 

Dalwin

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While the OP raises a valid question, I think there is little cause for concern. If the AI is predisposed to run its NFs in such a way for this Polish-Rumanian alliance to be formed, this would be such an obvious deviation from the historical pattern that it could not be missed in even a small amount of testing.

I am confident that the probabilities for choosing NFs will be adjusted such that that alliance is very unlikely if not outright impossible when playing in historical mode. If playing with historical mode turned off, such events are exactly the kind of variance you want to at least occasionally see.
 

Bane5

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9 MIL for Poland, 7 for Romania vs 36 for Soviets. 57 Inf and MTN divisions vs 73 such divisions for Soviets, not counting Red Army tanks. If a war starts in '36, Poland and Romania are doomed.

not counting the NKVD reserve divisions with Mil Police, the SU has 73 divisions, 11 of which are light tanks. The Cordon Sanitaire has 71 total conversely, one of which is a light tank division. Its a slightly favored SU matchup, since there is no starting equipment for piercing. If the AI was given one or two starting divisions with piercing capability, it would be an even matchup in a purely defensive war... who's goal would be to hold out until the Trotsky event fired or the Great Purge has to happen.

Edit: got the numbers wrong, oops
 
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Dalwin

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not counting the NKVD reserve divisions with Mil Police, the SU has 73 divisions, 11 of which are light tanks. The Cordon Sanitaire has 71 total conversely, one of which is a light tank division. Its a slightly favored SU matchup, since there is no starting equipment for piercing. If the AI was given one or two starting divisions with piercing capability, it would be an even matchup in a purely defensive war... who's goal would be to hold out until the Trotsky event fired or the Great Purge has to happen.
Are you excluding the Soviet Far East garrison in that count? In not, then they are obviously at a significant disadvantage in the west in 1936. However, after a few years of buildup they are much stronger and can easily crush both Poland and Rumania.

If such an early war did result, they could shift their troops near Turkey and Sinkiang to reinforce the west. The Turks are much less likely to be aggressive at this time than is Japan.
 

Opanashc

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not counting the NKVD reserve divisions with Mil Police, the SU has 73 divisions, 11 of which are light tanks. The Cordon Sanitaire has 71 total conversely, one of which is a light tank division. Its a slightly favored SU matchup, since there is no starting equipment for piercing. If the AI was given one or two starting divisions with piercing capability, it would be an even matchup in a purely defensive war... who's goal would be to hold out until the Trotsky event fired or the Great Purge has to happen.
Erm, you got the math wrong. SU has 73 infantry, 18 NKVD, 13 MTN, 11 light tank, 1 motorized and 22 cavalry, for a total of 138 divisions in 1936. Romania+Poland have 57 infantry, 1 light tank BRIGADE (2 tank+2 mot), 15 cavalry, for a total of 75 divisions. That's 16 infantry, 13 MTN, 10.5 tank, 1 motorized and 7 cavalry divisions (not counting NKVD, which are a match to Romania MTN divisions) in favor of SU. Equipment levels are roughly the same.
That's enough advantage for SU to defeat the two countries one at a time.
 

Bane5

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However, after a few years of buildup they are much stronger and can easily crush both Poland and Rumania.

Most certainly. My point is that for an SU player, its wise to build-up first then attack. Having the Sanitaire Cordon at start initially by default is a disincentive to cheese early on by declaring war in 1936 or early 1937.

Conversely, by having the Sanitaire cordon be two guarantees and not a faction immediately, prevents Germany from being cheesed early on.

Erm, you got the math wrong. SU has 73 infantry, 18 NKVD, 13 MTN, 11 light tank, 1 motorized and 22 cavalry, for a total of 138 divisions in 1936. Romania+Poland have 57 infantry, 1 light tank BRIGADE (2 tank+2 mot), 15 cavalry, for a total of 75 divisions. That's 16 infantry, 13 MTN, 10.5 tank, 1 motorized and 7 cavalry divisions (not counting NKVD, which are a match to Romania MTN divisions) in favor of SU. Equipment levels are roughly the same.
That's enough advantage for SU to defeat the two countries one at a time.

You are correct. I was mistaken on SU division count (I missed a few in-game). In that case only two players could only probably hope to win as the SC by going straight for river forts right away without additional intervention. I concede the point about the SU in singleplayer.
 
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Bane5

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Some interesting wikipedia links with sources for further reading:

The overly ambitious Intermarium/Medzymorze & Josef Beck's more realistic "Third Europe" - [Link]
The exact details of the Polish-Romanian Alliance & Treaties - [Link]
The Promethian program: attempts to undermine the Soviet Union - [Link]
 
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